Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 16:30 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 16:02 UTC, February 7)
Military Operations
Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Donetsk Region):[Conflicting Claims, Russian Assertion of Control]
"Operatsiya Z" (16:02:26 UTC) provides a video report echoing previous claims of Russian control over Dzerzhinsk, detailing alleged Ukrainian losses and the strategic importance of the town. This reinforces the existing information warfare battle, with Russian sources emphasizing their claimed victory. Colonelcassad (16:25:34 UTC) provides an aerial view.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP):[High Priority, Increased Attacks] "Dnevnik Desantnika" (16:02:01 UTC) reports a significant increase in Ukrainian attacks on the ZNPP, citing IAEA Director General Grossi. This is a major escalation of risk, potentially leading to a nuclear disaster. The IAEA's reluctance to explicitly attribute the attacks adds a layer of diplomatic complexity.
Kursk Region (Continued Ukrainian Activity, Confirmed):[New Information] "Dnevnik Desantnika" (16:29:06 UTC) reports attempts by Ukrainian forces to infiltrate and evacuate from the areas near Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Fanaseevka, and Ulanok. Russian aviation and artillery are targeting rotation groups. This confirms earlier reports and suggests a continued, albeit unsuccessful, Ukrainian effort in the region.
Chasov Yar (Donetsk Region):[New Information] MoD Russia (16:29:38 UTC) reports a Grad MLRS strike by Airborne Troops against Ukrainian strongholds near Chasov Yar. This indicates continued Russian offensive pressure in this area.
Nikopol and Marhanets: Russian shelling throughout the day (16:30:06)
Seversk area: Counter-battery struggle at the Seversk direction. Successful destruction of self-propelled artillery unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the cover on firing position with FPV-drone of the Russian Armed Forces. Detonation of ammunition. The distance from the line of contact is more than 5 km.
Sabotage and Internal Security
FPV Goggle IED Threat (Confirmed):[Extremely High Priority, Independent Confirmation] TASS (16:27:36 UTC) confirms the attempted sabotage using booby-trapped FPV goggles delivered via humanitarian channels. This independently verifies the earlier report from Colonelcassad, confirming this as a credible and serious threat.
St. Petersburg Arrest (Confirmed): "Dva Mayora" (16:02:28 UTC) provides a video of the arrest of an individual accused of plotting railroad sabotage and attempting to join the "Freedom of Russia Legion." This reinforces the ongoing internal security threat within Russia.
Svetofor: Temporary closed.
Information Operations and Propaganda
USAID: Trump called to close it.
Diplomatic Standard: Double standards.
Dirty Bomb: Mention of dirty bombs.
Other Developments
Murmansk Airport:[New Information] TASS (16:03:04 UTC) reports temporary restrictions on the operation of Murmansk airport. The reason is not specified, but it could be related to weather, security concerns, or military activity.
European Gas Prices:[New Information] TASS (16:13:17 UTC) reports that gas prices in Europe have exceeded $600 per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time since October 13, 2023. This has implications for European energy security and could impact their support for Ukraine.
Confirmed IED Threat in FPV Goggles:[Extremely High Priority, Independent Confirmation] The confirmation by TASS of the attempted sabotage using booby-trapped FPV goggles is a critical development, confirming the credibility and severity of this threat.
Increased Attacks on ZNPP:[Extremely High Priority, Nuclear Risk] The reported increase in attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is a major escalation, posing a severe risk of a nuclear disaster.
Continued Fighting and Russian Claims in Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk: The conflicting claims persist, but Russian sources are increasingly assertive in their claims of control, backed by video evidence.
Continued Ukrainian Activity in Kursk Region: The reports of continued Ukrainian attempts at infiltration and evacuation, despite Russian countermeasures, indicate a persistent effort in this area.
Murmansk airport: Temporary limitation.
Gas prices: The increase may affect European support to Ukraine.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Mitigate IED Threat in FPV Goggles:[Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action Required] (Maintain all previous recommendations, with increased urgency due to independent confirmation).
Immediately disseminate warnings and inspection protocols to all relevant personnel and organizations, including international partners and humanitarian aid groups.
Coordinate with law enforcement and intelligence agencies to identify and disrupt the supply chain of these booby-trapped devices.
Address Increased Risk at ZNPP:[Extremely High Priority, International Cooperation Required]
Immediately engage with the IAEA and international partners to increase monitoring and security measures at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Demand a cessation of all military activity in the vicinity of the plant.
Prepare for potential radiological consequences and develop contingency plans for a nuclear incident.
Verify Status of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk:[Extremely High Priority] (Maintain all previous recommendations, with increased focus on verifying Russian claims of complete control).
Monitor Kursk Region Activity:[High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations, with emphasis on countering Ukrainian infiltration attempts).
Analyze Potential Impact of USAID Shutdown:[Geopolitical, High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
Investigate Murmansk Airport Restrictions:[New Priority] Determine the reason for the temporary restrictions and assess potential implications for military operations or regional security.
Monitor European Gas Prices:[New Priority] Assess the potential impact of rising gas prices on European energy security and support for Ukraine.
Investigate and address the mention of Dirty Bombs: Very high priority.
Investigate the attacks: Collect evidence and determine the cause.
Verify claim: Verify the statements about military operations.
The remaining recommendations from the 16:02 UTC analysis remain valid and should be implemented in conjunction with these updated priorities. The situation is highly volatile, with the confirmed IED threat and the increased risk at the ZNPP requiring immediate and decisive action.
