Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 15:45 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 15:30 UTC, February 7, 2025)

Military Operations

• Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Donetsk Region): [Extremely High Priority, Conflicting Claims Persist] The situation remains the top priority and a focal point of information warfare.

  • Ukrainian Sources (15:13 UTC, 15:18 UTC, 15:26 UTC) continue to strongly deny Russian claims of complete capture. A spokesperson for the "Khortytsia" operational-strategic group (OSUV) and "RBC-Ukraine" insist that fighting is ongoing within the city. A video was published (15:13 UTC) reportedly showing the devastation in the city.
  • Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) (15:03 UTC, 15:07 UTC) officially claims the liberation of Dzerzhinsk. They state that Kyiv turned the city into a fortified area with underground communications. They claim over 26,000 Ukrainian casualties in five months of fighting and an advance of over 13km. The MoD specifically highlights the 1st, 9th, and 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Army and the "Veterans" volunteer formation. The MoD also states that the liberation opens the way to Konstantinovka and the flank of the Kramatorsk grouping.
  • "Rybar" (15:03 UTC) corroborates the Russian MoD's claims.
  • "Kotsnews" (15:13 UTC) and "Basurin" (15:29) provide further details from the Russian perspective, confirming heavy Ukrainian losses (over 26,000 casualties claimed) and the strategic significance of the operation (opening the way to Konstantinovka).
  • Colonelcassad (15:33) reports that ukrainian forces still claim that they're in control.
  • This is a major information battle. The discrepancy between official claims highlights the difficulty of obtaining accurate ground truth. Independent verification is paramount.

• South Donetsk Direction: MOD Russia (15:28) released a video of their troops destroying an AFU stronghold, while advancing closer to the Dnipropetrovsk region's border.

• Krasnohorivka, Donetsk Region: Butusov Plus (15:29) posts a video of the destruction of the city.

• Chuhuiv (Kharkiv Region): "Colonelcassad" (15:17 UTC) reports a "powerful fire" at the "Sebek" mineral water plant, alleging that Ukrainian military personnel and equipment were housed there. This requires verification, as targeting a civilian facility would be a war crime if the military presence is not confirmed.

• Kursk Region (Ulanok/Fanaseevka): "Rybar" (15:34) confirms Ukrainian forces occupy forests west of Ulanok and east of Fanaseevka. This corroborates earlier reports (08:38-09:08 UTC) of fighting near Ulanok and the use of tanks with mine-clearing equipment. This confirms ongoing Ukrainian offensive activity in the Kursk region, specifically near the border.

• Konstantinovka (Donetsk Region): "Dnevnik Desantnika" (15:34 UTC) reports a strike on the "Mayskaya" 330 kV substation using FPV drones, claiming damage to an autotransformer and the distribution system. This, if confirmed, disrupts power supply in the area and potentially impacts Ukrainian military operations.

• Gerber Drone (Kursk Region): "Sternenko" (15:44 UTC) reports the destruction of a Russian "Gerber" imitation drone by Ukrainian DPSU (State Border Guard Service) "Hydra" unit. This indicates Ukrainian drone operations inside Russian territory and the targeting of even low-value/decoy assets.

Geopolitical Developments

• Asset Seizure: Reports (15:24 UTC) indicate Russia is broadening powers to seize assets of "unfriendly states." This has significant economic implications and escalates the financial war.
• Trump and USAID: Multiple sources (15:30 UTC) report Trump's call to completely shut down USAID, citing corruption. This would have major ramifications for US foreign policy and aid programs, potentially impacting stability in various regions.
• Putin orders cut of university spots for law and economics. (15:02)

Disinformation and Propaganda

• Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk: The conflicting claims about the control of this city remain the primary example of information warfare.
• "Belaruski Hayun" Project Suspension: Remains a significant issue.

Ukrainian Military Actions & Claims

• Official ending of draft: Confirmed.
• Drone warfare successes (15:38).
• Ukrainian forces have also denied Russian claims regarding the capturing of Toretsk.

Internal Russian Issues

• Alleged Crimes by Russian Soldiers: Reports of crimes, including a murder by a pardoned "zek" (prisoner) in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod region (15:30 UTC), add to the picture of internal discipline problems and potential war crimes.

Updated Situation Assessment

The major developments are:

1. Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Donetsk Region): [Extremely High Priority, Information Warfare Battle] This remains the most critical and contested point. The conflicting claims are escalating, with both sides presenting "evidence" (videos, statements) to support their narratives. The "liberation" claimed by Russia likely refers to a portion of the city, with fighting ongoing.
2. Kursk Region (Ulanok/Fanaseevka): [High Priority, Confirmed Ukrainian Activity] Ukrainian forces are confirmed to be operating in the border area, indicating a continued offensive push.
3. Konstantinovka Substation Strike: [High Priority, Requires Verification] If confirmed, this disrupts power supply and potentially impacts Ukrainian military operations in the area.
4. Trump's Call to Shut Down USAID: [Geopolitical, High Impact] This, if implemented, has far-reaching consequences for US foreign policy and aid programs.

Updated Recommendations

1. Verify Status of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk: [Extremely High Priority] (Maintain all previous recommendations, with increased urgency).

   • Prioritize confirming the exact areas of control. Focus on the outskirts, spoil tips, and the Toretska mine, as suggested by "Rybar."
   • Assess Ukrainian troop strength, morale, and defensive capabilities in the area. Can they hold, counterattack, or are they withdrawing?
   • Utilize all available intelligence sources (satellite, drone, signals, human) to bypass the conflicting official claims and obtain ground truth.

2. Investigate Chuhuiv Fire: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).

   • Confirm or deny Ukrainian military presence at the "Sebek" plant before the fire.
   • Determine the cause of the fire.

3. Confirm Konstantinovka Substation Strike: [High Priority]

   • Verify the extent of damage to the "Mayskaya" substation.
   • Assess the impact on power supply to the area, including Ukrainian military facilities and civilian infrastructure.

4. Monitor Kursk Region Activity: [High Priority]

   • Track Ukrainian troop movements and offensive actions near Ulanok and Fanaseevka.
   • Assess the scale and objectives of the Ukrainian operation.

5. Analyze Potential Impact of USAID Shutdown: [Geopolitical, High Priority]

   • Assess the potential consequences of a USAID shutdown on US foreign policy, aid programs, and stability in various regions, particularly Ukraine.
   • Consider alternative channels for delivering aid and maintaining influence if USAID is disbanded.

6. Maintain and Escalate All Previous Recommendations: The remaining recommendations from previous analyses remain valid, especially those related to:

   • Monitoring Russian advances on other fronts (Krasnolimansk, etc.).
   • Investigating potential sabotage of drone equipment (from previous reports).
   • Enhancing counter-drone capabilities.
   • Monitoring internal Russian issues (crimes, morale, economic situation).

The situation is highly dynamic and characterized by conflicting information. The key immediate priorities are verifying the situation in Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk, assessing the impact of the Konstantinovka substation strike (if confirmed), and monitoring the ongoing Ukrainian activity in the Kursk region. The potential shutdown of USAID introduces a major geopolitical variable that requires careful analysis.