Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 15:30 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 15:02 UTC, February 7, 2025)

Military Operations

• Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Donetsk Region): [Highest Priority, Conflicting Reports Continue, Official Russian Claim of Liberation] The situation remains the most critical and complex.

  • Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) (15:03 UTC) officially claims the liberation of Dzerzhinsk. They state that Kyiv turned the city into a fortified area with underground communications. They claim over 26,000 Ukrainian casualties in five months of fighting and an advance of over 13km. The MoD specifically highlights the 1st, 9th, and 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Army and the "Veterans" volunteer formation. The MoD also states that the liberation opens the way to Konstantinovka and the flank of the Kramatorsk grouping.
  • "Rybar" (15:03 UTC) corroborates the Russian MoD claim, stating that almost all residential areas were taken in December-January, with remaining Ukrainian forces limited to the outskirts, including the area of spoil tips and the Toretska mine. "Rybar" clarifies that, according to the maps used by the Russian MoD, neither Krymske nor the Toretska mine are considered part of Dzerzhinsk.
  • Ukrainian Sources (15:13 UTC, 15:18 UTC, 15:26) strongly contest the Russian claims. A spokesperson for the "Khortytsia" operational-strategic group (OSUV) states that fighting continues in the urban areas of Toretsk. "DeepState" and "RBC-Ukraine" also report ongoing fighting. "Operativny ZSU" publishes a video (15:13) showing the devastation of the city, and the presenter claims that the information provided by the Russian MoD is disinformation.
  • Kotsnews (15:13) confirms high Ukrainian losses and states that the operation involved clearing 11 other settlements, and they also confirm high casualties on the Ukrainian side.
  • Basurin (15:29) adds further details from the Russian perspective regarding the city's strategic value and the high Ukrainian casualty claims.
  • This constitutes a major information warfare battle. The Russian narrative emphasizes complete victory and high Ukrainian losses, while the Ukrainian narrative stresses ongoing resistance and accuses Russia of spreading disinformation. Independent verification is urgently needed.

• South Donetsk Direction (Reported Capture of UK Mastiff): MOD Russia (15:28) released a video of their troops destroying an AFU stronghold, while advancing closer to the Dnipropetrovsk region's border.

• Krasnohorivka, Donetsk Region (Destroyed MaxxPro): Butusov Plus (15:29) posts a video of the destruction of the city.

• Chuhuiv (Kharkiv Region): "Colonelcassad" (15:17 UTC) reports a "powerful fire" at the "Sebek" mineral water plant, alleging that Ukrainian military personnel and equipment were housed there. This requires verification, as targeting a civilian facility would be a war crime if the military presence is not confirmed.

Geopolitical Developments

• Russia may broaden powers to seize assets (15:24)
• Putin orders cut of university spots for law and economics. (15:02)

Disinformation and Propaganda

• Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk: The conflicting claims surrounding the control of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk are a clear example of active information warfare. Both sides are attempting to shape the narrative to their advantage.
• "Belaruski Hayun" Project Suspension: Remains a significant issue.

Ukrainian Military Actions & Claims

• Official ending of draft: Confirmed.

Internal Russian Issues

• Alleged Crimes by Russian Soldiers: The reports of alleged crimes by Russian soldiers continue, adding to the picture of potential internal discipline problems.

Updated Situation Assessment

The major developments are:

1. Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Donetsk Region): [Extremely High Priority, Information Warfare Battle] This is the central point of contention. The Russian MoD's claim of complete liberation is directly contradicted by Ukrainian sources, who insist on continued fighting within the city. "Rybar's" clarification of the map definitions used by the Russian MoD is important, suggesting that the "liberation" may refer to a more limited area than the entire city as commonly understood. The high casualty figures claimed by Russia, if true, would be a significant blow to Ukrainian forces.
2. Chuhuiv Fire: [High Priority, Requires Verification] The reported fire at a mineral water plant, with alleged Ukrainian military presence, needs urgent verification.

Updated Recommendations

1. Verify Status of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk: [Extremely High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations, now with added urgency due to the conflicting official claims).
   • Prioritize confirming the precise areas of control by both sides. Focus on the outskirts, spoil tips, and the Toretska mine, as these are the areas "Rybar" suggests are outside the Russian MoD's definition of "liberated" Dzerzhinsk.
   • Assess Ukrainian troop strength and morale in the area. Determine if Ukrainian forces are capable of mounting a sustained defense or counterattack.
   • Gather independent imagery and reports. Bypass official statements from both sides and seek direct evidence of the situation on the ground.
2. Investigate Chuhuiv Fire: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
   • Confirm or deny the presence of Ukrainian military personnel and equipment at the "Sebek" plant before the fire. This is crucial for assessing the legitimacy of any potential Russian strike.
   • Determine the cause of the fire. Was it a deliberate attack, an accident, or sabotage?
3. Maintain and Escalate All Previous Recommendations: The remaining recommendations from the previous analysis remain valid, particularly those related to:
   • Krasnolimansk Direction monitoring.
   • Kursk Region investigation (Sudzhansky District).
   • Investigation of potential sabotage of drone equipment.
   • Enhancing counter-drone capabilities.
   • Monitoring internal Russian issues.

The situation is highly dynamic and extremely dangerous. The conflicting claims surrounding Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk create a fog of war that requires immediate and thorough clarification. The potential for cross-border operations in the Kursk region and the serious allegation of booby-trapped drone equipment demand urgent attention. The ongoing Russian advances in the Krasnolimansk direction and the preparations by Russian forces in Kupyansk also need to be closely monitored.