Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 15:00 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 14:30 UTC, February 7, 2025)

Military Operations

• Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Donetsk Region): [Highest Priority, Conflicting Reports Persist] While "Voenkor Kotenok" (14:21 UTC) claimed the complete liberation of the city, "DeepState" (14:19) provides crucial context: fighting continues, with Ukrainian forces resisting in the Zabalka microdistrict and on the northern/western outskirts. The city center is almost entirely under Russian control. TASS (14:27) now reports Dzerzhinsk as the last key outpost before the Ukrainian stronghold of Konstantinovka, highlighting its strategic importance. The situation remains fluid, with a high probability of continued fighting, but Russian forces have made significant, if not yet complete, gains.

• Krasnolimansk Direction: [High Priority] "Voenkor Kotenok" (14:19 UTC) report of a Ukrainian offensive attempt and Russian counterattack near Terny and Yampolovka on February 5th, with significant Ukrainian losses, remains the most critical update. "Dnevnik Desantnika" (14:45) adds further detail, claiming Russian forces are advancing northwest of Novomlynsk, have liberated Figolevka, and are consolidating positions on the right bank of the Oskil River near Topoli. They also report fighting near Kondrashovka and Ukrainian fortifications near Golubovka. This reinforces the picture of active combat and Russian advances in this sector.

• Kupyansk Direction: Basurin (14:38) provides extensive information on the situation, reporting active preparation for a battle for Kupyansk. Russian forces are reportedly preparing a bridgehead, encompassing the enemy from the north and south. Ukrainian forces have sent a high quantity of forces to Dvurechnaya. Russian forces expanded the line of the front, aiming for a new encirclement. The report mentions the village of Figolevka on the western shore of the Oskil river has been liberated by Russian forces, supporting the information from Dnevnik Desantnika.

• Zaporizhzhia Front (Alleged Ukrainian Offensive near Kam'yans'ke): "Operatsiya Z" (14:33 UTC) reports a failed Ukrainian armored attack near Kam'yans'ke, followed by a "cavalry attack" using pickup trucks, also repulsed. This, if confirmed, suggests continued Ukrainian attempts to regain ground in this area, but with significant losses.

• Sudzhansky Direction (Kursk Region, Reported Repulsion of Ukrainian Attack): "Operatsiya Z" (14:52 UTC) reports Russian naval infantry from the 40th Brigade repelled a Ukrainian armored attack in the Sudzhansky district, using artillery. "Colonelcassad" (14:53) shares footage purportedly showing this engagement, highlighting the destruction of American-made armored vehicles by the "Rubicon" center. This directly impacts the Ukrainian perspective by highlighting the potential risk of cross-border operations.

Drone Warfare

• Kyiv Region: Potential air defense activity reported (14:25 UTC) remains the latest update. No new significant drone activity reported in the last 30 minutes.
• Drone Countermeasure: The video message from "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" (14:47 UTC) is the most concerning update. It contains the unconfirmed claim that the "RUSICH" group have delivered Skyzone Cobra FPV goggles, some of which were found to be booby-trapped with explosives, supposedly delivered by a representative of a humanitarian organization. This requires immediate and thorough investigation due to its severe implications.

Geopolitical Developments

• No major geopolitical shifts in the last 30 minutes. The reported consideration by Hungary (14:27) of leaving the WHO, following the US and Argentina, is a notable, but not directly war-related, development.

Disinformation and Propaganda

• Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk: The situation remains fluid, with conflicting reports.
• Propaganda: The report that the song is related to information warfare is still unconfirmed.
• Alleged Crimes by Russian Soldiers: Multiple reports highlight alleged crimes by Russian soldiers, including the fatal car accident in Belgorod (14:15 UTC, 14:22 UTC, 14:55) and an alleged organized crime group connection (14:55).
• "Belaruski Hayun" Project Suspension: [Confirmed, Major Impact] Remains a significant issue.
• Reported nazi art: Colonelcassad (14:35) claims that there is nazi propaganda and art found in abandoned Ukrainian homes.

Ukrainian Military Actions & Claims

• General Staff Report (16:00 UTC, 14:21 UTC): Provides a detailed overview of combat activity, reporting 67 engagements since the start of the day. Key points:
  • Continued shelling of border settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions.
  • Kupyansk direction: 7 enemy attacks, 3 ongoing.
  • Lyman direction: 8 enemy attacks, 1 ongoing.
  • Siversk direction: 2 enemy attacks, 1 ongoing.
  • Kramatorsk direction: 2 Russian attacks near Chasiv Yar; KAB strikes on Kramatorsk.
  • Toretsk direction: 8 enemy attacks, 4 ongoing; KAB strikes on Konstantinovka, Druzhkivka, and Oleksiivo-Druzhkivka.
  • Pokrovsk direction: 17 enemy attacks, 2 ongoing; airstrikes on Filia and Oleksiivka.
  • Novopavlivsk direction: 4 enemy attacks, 1 ongoing; KAB strike on Rozlyv.
  • Huliaipole direction: Enemy airstrikes on Novodarivka and Huliaipole.
  • Kursk region (Ukrainian operations): 13 Russian attacks repelled, 5 ongoing; 18 airstrikes (25 KABs) and 262 shelling incidents.
• Official ending of draft: "Tsaplienko" (14:35) reports that conscription will be replaced by a basic military service and reserve system.

Internal Russian Issues

• Awards: Both "AV Bogomaz" (14:32 UTC) and TASS (14:48 UTC) showcase awards ceremonies, highlighting Russian achievements in science and technology.

Updated Situation Assessment

The major developments are:

1. Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Donetsk Region): [Highest Priority] The situation is fluid and contested, with ongoing fighting despite Russian claims of full control. The city center is likely under Russian control, but Ukrainian resistance continues on the outskirts. The TASS report (14:27) highlighting its strategic importance as the last major outpost before Konstantinovka underscores the stakes.
2. Krasnolimansk Direction: [High Priority] Reports from "Voenkor Kotenok" (14:19) and "Dnevnik Desantnika" (14:45) and Basurin (14:38) indicate a significant Russian push, with claimed advances and Ukrainian losses.
3. Kupyansk: There is a reported preparation for a major offensive by Russian forces.
4. Zaporizhzhia Front: The reported Ukrainian offensive attempt and subsequent Russian counterattack indicates renewed fighting in this area.
5. Kursk Region (Sudzhansky District): [High Priority, Requires Verification] The reported repulse of a Ukrainian armored attack, if confirmed, represents a significant development, indicating potential cross-border operations.
6. Potential Sabotage of Drone Equipment: [Extremely High Priority, Requires Immediate Investigation] The claim by "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" (14:47) about booby-trapped FPV goggles is extremely serious and requires immediate and thorough investigation. This could represent a major escalation and a severe threat to Ukrainian forces.

Updated Recommendations

1. Verify Status of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk: [Highest Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations). Focus on confirming the extent of Ukrainian resistance and Russian control, particularly in the Zabalka microdistrict and on the outskirts.
2. Monitor and Assess Krasnolimansk Direction: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations). Focus on verifying claims of Russian advances and Ukrainian losses. Determine the extent of Russian control on the right bank of the Oskil River.
3. Monitor and Assess Kupyansk: The reported preparations by Russian forces must be addressed.
4. Investigate Reported Ukrainian Attack in Kursk Region (Sudzhansky District): [High Priority] Deploy all available assets to verify the reported attack and assess its implications. Determine the scale of the operation, Ukrainian objectives, and the extent of any losses.
5. Investigate Potential Sabotage of Drone Equipment: [Extremely High Priority] Immediately investigate the claims made by "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" (14:47).
   • Verify the Incident: Determine if the incident occurred as reported.
   • Identify the Source: Trace the origin of the FPV goggles and identify the individuals or organizations involved in their supply.
   • Assess the Threat: Determine the scale of the potential threat and the possibility of other compromised equipment.
   • Implement Countermeasures: Develop and implement procedures to screen all incoming equipment for potential sabotage.
   • Issue Warnings: Immediately warn all units using FPV goggles about the potential threat and provide guidance on safety precautions.
6. Assess Impact of Baltic States Energy Disconnection: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
7. Investigate Belaruski Hayun: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
8. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities Across All Fronts: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
9. Maintain Focus on Internal Russian Issues: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations), paying close attention to reports of alleged crimes by Russian soldiers and their potential impact on morale and public opinion.
10. Verify Reports of Ukrainian Losses: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
11. Verify Reports of Russian Advances and Captures: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
12. Monitor Kursk Region: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
13. Evaluate Ukrainian Counter-KAB Tactics: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
14. Mitigate Impact of "Belaruski Hayun" Suspension: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
15. Maintain All Previous Recommendations: The remaining recommendations from previous analyses remain valid.

The situation remains highly dynamic and dangerous, with the potential for significant escalation. The unconfirmed report of booby-trapped drone equipment is a major cause for concern and requires immediate action. The conflicting reports and ongoing fighting in Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk, along with the reported Russian advances in the Krasnolimansk direction and the potential for cross-border operations in the Kursk region, necessitate continued close monitoring and rapid intelligence gathering.