Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 14:30 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 14:00 UTC, February 7, 2025)

Military Operations

• Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Donetsk Region): [Highest Priority - Conflicting Reports] Reports of the complete capture of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk by Russian forces are increasing, with "Kotsnews" reporting the Russian MoD's claim of full control (13:37 UTC). However, "Tsaplienko" (13:35 UTC) and "Rybar" (13:41 UTC) still suggest Ukrainian forces may maintain positions on the outskirts. DeepState (14:19) states that fighting continues and the city center is almost all under enemy control. "Voenkor Kotenok" (14:21 UTC) also claims complete liberation of the city. The situation is likely evolving rapidly in favor of Russian forces, but definitive confirmation of complete Ukrainian withdrawal is still pending.

• Krasnolimansk Direction: [New, High Priority] "Voenkor Kotenok" (14:19 UTC) reports a Ukrainian attempt to regain lost positions near Terny and Yampolovka on February 5th, resulting in heavy Ukrainian losses (two tanks and six armored vehicles) and a retreat from the northern part of Yampolovka. This suggests a renewed Ukrainian offensive effort, and Russian forces are actively pushing back.

• Kramatorsk Direction: Ongoing strike.

• Konstantinovka: Ongoing strike

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Drone Activity (Updated Movements):

  • Sumy Region: The threat of attack drones remains (13:51 UTC).
  • Sumy Region (Guided Aerial Bombs): Guided bomb attacks continue (13:46 UTC, 13:57 UTC).
  • Zaporizhzhia -> Dnipropetrovsk: Drone activity reported moving from Zaporizhzhia towards Dnipropetrovsk (16:59 UTC from previous report).
  • Kyiv Region: Possible air defense activity against an enemy drone reported (14:25 UTC).

• Reported destruction of two Supercam drones: Confirmed.

• Ukraine Developing Tactics to Counter CABs: (New, Confirmed) "Operativni ZSU" (14:11), citing Defense Express, reports Ukrainian forces are developing tactics to intercept Russian KAB guided bombs, potentially using ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns. This highlights a critical need to counter a major Russian weapon system.

Geopolitical Developments

• Baltic States Disconnect from Russian Energy Grid: [Major Geopolitical Shift, Confirmed] Multiple sources confirm the disconnection tomorrow (February 8, 2025).
• Ukraine Open to Discussing North Korean POWs with South Korea: [Confirmed]
• Zelensky Ready to Negotiate with Putin, With Conditions (New, Confirmed) Zelensky stated he is ready to negotiate with Russia when he understands how it would end.
• Israel and Somalia: (New) Israel and Somalia may work together to have palestinian refugees.

Disinformation and Propaganda

• Kursk Region Situation "Unclear": "Fighterbomber" Telegram channel's assessment remains valid.
• Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk: Reports of capture, however the status of the city remains fluid.
• Song: The report that the song is related to information warfare is still unconfirmed.

Ukrainian Military Actions & Claims

• Humanitarian Corridor Offer (Kursk Region): [Confirmed]
• Lieutenant General Yevhen Moysiuk Relieved and Replaced: [Updated] Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has relieved Lieutenant General Yevhen Moysyuk. The Cabinet of Ministers appointed Yevhen Moysiuk and Valeriy Churkin as Deputy Ministers of Defense (14:11 UTC).

Internal Russian Issues

• "Belaruski Hayun" Project Suspended: [Confirmed, Major Impact] The project's suspension due to a security breach (13:42 UTC) is a significant blow to open-source intelligence, hindering monitoring of Russian military activity in Belarus. "Operativni ZSU" confirms this (14:28 UTC).
• Death Penalty: This topic is still under discussion.
• Man Sentenced: A man has been sentenced.

Cyber Warfare

• Telegram Account Hacking Attempt: [Confirmed]

Humanitarian/Social

• Displaced persons: Ukraine is still working on the program.
• Teachers: There are reports of the payments.

Updated Situation Assessment

The major developments are:

1. Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Donetsk Region): [Highest Priority] The situation is rapidly evolving, with increasing claims of full Russian control. While Ukrainian sources still suggest some resistance, the overall trend points to a significant Russian advance, if not complete capture.
2. Krasnolimansk Direction: [High Priority] The reported Ukrainian offensive attempt and subsequent Russian counterattack near Terny and Yampolovka indicate renewed fighting in this area, with significant Ukrainian losses.
3. Baltic States Energy Independence: [Major Geopolitical Shift] Remains a critical development.
4. Kursk Region Uncertainty: The situation remains complex and difficult to assess.
5. Potential Drone Threat in Sumy Region: Remains a concern.
6. Ukrainian Counter-KAB Tactics: [New, High Priority] Ukraine's reported efforts to develop tactics against Russian KAB guided bombs using ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns highlight a crucial area of technological adaptation.
7. "Belaruski Hayun" Project Suspension: [Major Impact] The suspension of this project significantly reduces open-source intelligence capabilities regarding Russian military movements in Belarus.
8. The dismissal and replacement of Lieutenant General Yevhen Moysiuk.

Updated Recommendations

1. Verify Status of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk: [Highest Priority] Focus all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) on confirming the status of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk. Determine if Ukrainian forces have completely withdrawn or if pockets of resistance remain. Rapid confirmation is crucial.
2. Monitor and Assess Krasnolimansk Direction: [High Priority] Deploy additional reconnaissance assets (drones, signal intelligence) to the Krasnolimansk area to monitor the situation near Terny and Yampolovka. Verify Ukrainian and Russian claims of troop movements and losses.
3. Monitor Sumy Region for Drone Activity: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
4. Assess Impact of Baltic States Energy Disconnection: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
5. Investigate Belaruski Hayun: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
6. Investigate Chuhuiv Factory Fire (Kharkiv Region): [Highest Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
7. Assess Impact of Danube Strike: [Highest Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
8. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities Across All Fronts: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
9. Monitor Russia-Azerbaijan Relations: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
10. Maintain Focus on Internal Russian Issues: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
11. Verify Reports of Ukrainian Losses (Kursk Region): [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
12. Verify Reports of Russian Advances and Captures: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
13. Disinformation: (Maintain previous recommendation).
14. Monitor Kursk Region: [High Priority] (Maintain previous recommendations).
15. Evaluate Ukrainian Counter-KAB Tactics: [High Priority] Gather intelligence on the reported Ukrainian efforts to counter KAB guided bombs. Assess the feasibility and potential effectiveness of using ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns in this role. Explore potential vulnerabilities and limitations of this approach.
16. Mitigate Impact of "Belaruski Hayun" Suspension: [High Priority] Explore alternative sources of information to compensate for the loss of "Belaruski Hayun". Consider increasing reliance on satellite imagery, signal intelligence, and human intelligence networks in Belarus.
17. Maintain All Previous Recommendations: The remaining recommendations from previous analyses remain valid.

The quickly evolving situation in Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk, combined with the potential emergence of a new Ukrainian counter-tactic and the suspension of a key information source, necessitate an immediate and focused intelligence effort. The reported fighting in the Krasnolimansk direction also warrants close monitoring.