Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 12:30 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 12:01 UTC, February 7)
Military Operations
Zaporizhzhia Region (Air Raid Alert): An air raid alert was declared for the Zaporizhzhia region at 12:08 UTC, and lifted at 12:29 UTC. This indicates a perceived threat, likely from Russian aircraft or missiles, although no strikes were reported during this timeframe. A high-speed target was reported heading northwest from Zaporizhzhia at 12:09 UTC. Dnipropetrovsk was also warned to take shelter. This further clarifies the nature of the threat.
Kharkiv Region (Chuhuiv): A fire is reported at the "Sebek" factory in Chuhuiv, which produces carbonated water. Russian sources claim the facility was used to store military cargo. This is a significant development if confirmed, suggesting a successful Russian strike on a target of military value, disguised as civilian infrastructure..
Kupyansk Direction (Reconnaissance in Force): Video footage shows a Russian armored vehicle conducting reconnaissance in force under attack by Ukrainian FPV drones. The vehicle withstands at least two FPV drone strikes, evades attacks from "Baba Yaga" type drones, and continues to fire on enemy positions while dismounting troops. No losses were reported, and the combat mission was reportedly completed. This demonstrates ongoing Russian probing actions and the increasing prevalence and threat of Ukrainian drone warfare. It also suggests a degree of Russian resilience to drone attacks, though the vehicle's vulnerability is evident.
Krasnolimansk Direction: Video released of 144th Motorized Rifle Division showing the drone destruction of equipment.
Drone Warfare
South Donetsk Direction: Russian snipers reportedly shot down a "Baba Yaga" type Ukrainian drone (reported at 11:56 UTC). This reinforces earlier reports of Ukrainian use of large multi-rotor drones.
Undisclosed Location (likely Donetsk Region): Video footage from the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade shows a Russian soldier detonating a grenade after being targeted by a drone (reported at 11:51 UTC). This remains a graphic illustration of the psychological impact of drone warfare. Another video from the same unit shows a thermal imagery strike on a road, likely targeting vehicles and/or personnel. This reinforces the assessment of Ukrainian drone effectiveness.
Undisclosed Location: Russian drone operators from the 30th Special Forces Company, "East" group, conducted combat operations (reported at 11:33 UTC). Airborne forces’ drone operators destroyed a Ukrainian howitzer that was obstructing assault operations. This highlights the widespread use of drones by Russian forces.
Kursk Region: "Iskander-M" strike reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot and over 50 units of armored and automotive equipment in Stetskovka, Sumy Oblast.
Multiple Drones: The Ukrainian activist Sergiy Sternenko stated that, due to recent donations, another 400 FPV drones have been donated to units of the Ukrainian armed forces:
100 to HUR (Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine)
100 to "Wild Gazdas", 101st Territorial Defense Brigade
200 to 54th Mechanized Brigade
Belgorod: A deadly traffic collision occured in the area, a drunk driver struck an ambulance killing 2.
Internal Russian Issues
Rostov-on-Don: Searches continue at the MREO building, with document seizures (reported at 11:37 UTC). This strengthens the assessment of an internal security or corruption investigation.
Moscow: FSB detained a supporter of "Azov" for allegedly attempting to persuade Russian soldiers to defect (reported at 12:15 UTC). This reinforces the assessment of ongoing FSB counterintelligence and anti-dissident activity. The individual was accused of gathering information on Russian troop locations and personnel. This expands on the alleged activities, suggesting espionage in addition to subversion.
Currency Changes: 5 and 10 ruble coins are being replaced by paper banknotes.
Wildberries: Investigation is underway.
Russian Politics
State Duma: Deputies have prepared an amendment to the constitution allowing regions to determine the local government model (reported at 11:30 UTC). This remains a significant political development.
Putin-Mishustin Meeting: Putin and Mishustin held a working meeting on economic development (reported at 11:31 UTC). Mishustin reported 4.1% GDP growth in 2024, exceeding expectations, with nominal GDP reaching a historic high. Mishustin also claimed Russia has successfully dealt with sanctions, while those imposing them have suffered. Mishustin stated that inflation is Russia’s main economic challenge, and that unemployment is low. Putin tasked the government with reducing inflation in 2025. Real income of the population has reportedly increased. (Reports at 11:33 UTC, 11:34 UTC, 11:37 UTC, 11:39 UTC, 11:40 UTC, 11:55 UTC). These statements are designed to project economic stability and resilience, despite the ongoing conflict. The focus on inflation suggests it remains a persistent challenge. Putin stated that Russia's economic growth rate was higher than that of the US and other "developed economies". This is likely intended to contrast Russia's economic performance with that of Western nations, reinforcing the narrative of resilience.
Lipetsk Region: Governor Artamonov reports significant investment in the agricultural sector and environmental improvements (reported at 11:32 UTC). This reinforces the emphasis on regional economic development.
Russian Duma: Received the treaty with Belarus, that concerns security guarantees.
International Relations
EU-Ukraine: Ukraine's Deputy PM Stefanishyna attributed Hungary and Slovakia's blocking of Ukraine's EU path to political maneuvering, linked to broader geopolitical shifts and the new US presidential administration (reported at 11:37 UTC). This remains a significant obstacle to Ukraine's EU aspirations. The ending of the Russian gas transit contract is reportedly not a threat to EU energy security. This suggests successful EU efforts to diversify energy sources.
Azerbaijan-Russia: Rising tensions continue (reported at 11:39 UTC). Inflammatory statements by Russian public figure Sergei Mantsaev calling for expulsions and arrests of Azerbaijanis. Leaked documents suggest Azerbaijani intelligence is gathering information in Russia for Ukraine, under guidance of Israel and UK (reported at 11:45 UTC). This significantly escalates the assessment of deteriorating relations and potential for regional instability.
Iran-US: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that negotiations with the US are "unreasonable" and "dishonest," citing the US failure to uphold a previous agreement (reported at 11:59 UTC). This reinforces Iran's distrust of the US and the unlikelihood of any near-term diplomatic breakthrough.
Ukraine-USA: Next week more contacts are expected.
Disinformation and Propaganda
Forbes "Oreshnik" Missile Report: Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to dispute a Forbes report about a Russian "Oreshnik" missile failing and exploding in Russia (reported at 11:39 UTC, 11:47 UTC, 11:51 UTC, 11:58 UTC). This underscores the ongoing information war and the need for careful verification of claims.
Military and Personnel Issues
155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade (Pacific Fleet): Will be given the honorary title "Kurskaya," supported by Putin (reported at 11:40 UTC). This remains a morale-boosting measure.
Mobilized Soldier with PTSD (Valentin Stroev): Reports of a mobilized soldier with PTSD and psychiatric issues being forcibly sent back to the front after refusing to buy equipment for his unit. He is now missing and possibly a POW (reported at 11:57 UTC). This continues to raise serious concerns about Russian military practices, treatment of personnel, and potential corruption.
Georgian Mercenaries: Reports of two Georgian mercenaries from an elite Ukrainian unit killed in action, potentially in the Kursk region.
Soldier: Report about a soldier missing a leg being assigned to a civil disability.
Ukrainian Recruitment: Reports of poor conditions in an Odessa recruitment center (reported at 11:32 UTC). This adds to concerns about Ukrainian mobilization efforts.
Ukrainian Casualties: The bodies of fallen Ukrainian soldiers are being repartitioned.
Other
Abkhazia: Reconstructed Sukhum airport sees first flights to Moscow, with several patients traveling for treatment (reported at 11:39 UTC). Several airlines have expressed interest in expanding flight programs. This suggests improved connectivity and Russian support.
Novgorod Region: Power outages continue, leaving villages without electricity and heat.
Sudan: Coup news.
US:
F-35 created from 2 crashed jets.
Democrats are protesting to impeach Trump.
USAID is still paralyzed.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been appointed as the acting head of USAID.
EU:
EU criticizes Trump for ICC sanctions.
Ukrainian Air Force: Shooting down of a guided aerial bomb (KAB) in Zaporizhzhia is confirmed.
Updated Situation Assessment
The key updates since the previous assessment are:
Potential Russian Strike on Chuhuiv Factory (Kharkiv Region):[High Priority] The reported fire at a factory allegedly used to store military cargo, if confirmed, represents a successful Russian strike on a strategically relevant target. This highlights the ongoing risk to Ukrainian infrastructure and the potential for Russia to target facilities disguised as civilian entities.
Continued Drone Warfare Across Multiple Fronts:[High Priority] Reports of drone activity by both sides continue, reinforcing the assessment of drone warfare as a dominant feature of the conflict. The Ukrainian donation of 400 drones is a clear example of how the army plans to use these weapons. The reported Russian reconnaissance-in-force operation in the Kupyansk direction, withstanding multiple drone attacks, demonstrates both the threat and the resilience (though still vulnerable) of armored vehicles in this environment.
Escalating Tensions Between Russia and Azerbaijan:[High Priority] The combination of inflammatory rhetoric and alleged Azerbaijani intelligence activity against Russia continues to raise concerns about regional stability. This situation requires close monitoring.
Internal Russian Issues and Potential Instability:[High Priority] The continued reports of internal security investigations and the potential constitutional change regarding regional autonomy suggest ongoing internal challenges within Russia.
Internal Ukrainian Issues:
Security Measures: Following recent attacks on Military Commissariats, security has been increased around military buildings.
Propaganda: A puppet play that encouraged kids to join the army was reported in a kindergarten.
Updated Recommendations
Investigate Chuhuiv Factory Fire (Kharkiv Region):[Highest Priority]Utilize all available intelligence assets to determine:
Whether the "Sebek" factory was indeed used to store military cargo.
The extent of the damage and the impact on Ukrainian military capabilities.
Whether the fire was caused by a Russian strike or other factors.
This should include satellite imagery analysis, signals intelligence, and human intelligence reports.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities Across All Fronts:[High Priority] Given the persistent and widespread threat of drone warfare, prioritize:
Deployment of additional anti-drone systems (electronic warfare, kinetic).
Training for troops on drone detection and countermeasures.
Development of tactics to minimize vehicle and personnel vulnerability to drone attacks.
Monitor Russia-Azerbaijan Relations:[High Priority] Continue to closely monitor the escalating tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan, focusing on:
Verifying the claims of Azerbaijani intelligence activity in Russia.
Assessing any further diplomatic or military actions by either side.
Analyzing the potential impact on regional stability and alliances.
Maintain Focus on Internal Russian Issues:[High Priority] Continue to track internal security investigations, potential constitutional changes, and economic indicators within Russia.
Verify Reports of Ukrainian Losses (Kursk Region):[High Priority]Utilize all available intelligence assets to independently verify the Russian MoD's claims of significant Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, including analysis of any available visual evidence (photos, videos).
Maintain All Previous Recommendations: The remaining recommendations from previous analyses remain valid and should be implemented concurrently with these updates.
The situation remains highly dynamic and requires continuous monitoring and analysis. The potential for further escalation and instability is significant, particularly with the intensifying drone warfare and the deteriorating relations between Russia and Azerbaijan. The reported strike on the Chuhuiv factory, if confirmed, highlights the ongoing vulnerability of Ukrainian infrastructure.
