Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 12:00 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 11:30 UTC, February 7)
Military Operations
Zaporizhzhia Region (Huliaipole): Confirmed Russian strikes (4) on Huliaipole, damaging residential buildings. No casualties reported. This represents a continuation of Russian pressure in the Zaporizhzhia region, targeting civilian infrastructure.
Kharkiv Region: Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of attack drones. This indicates ongoing Russian drone activity in the region.
Drone Warfare
Kursk Region: Russian air defense forces reportedly shot down a Ukrainian drone. This is further confirmation of ongoing, two-way drone warfare in the Kursk border region.
South Donetsk Direction: Russian snipers reportedly shot down a "Baba Yaga" type Ukrainian drone. This indicates ongoing Ukrainian attempts to utilize large, multi-rotor drones.
Undisclosed Location (likely Donetsk Region): Video footage from the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade shows a Russian soldier detonating a grenade after being targeted by a drone. This is a graphic illustration of the psychological pressure of drone warfare. Another video from the same unit shows a thermal imagery strike on a road, likely targeting vehicles and/or personnel.
Kursk Region: "Iskander-M" strike reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot and over 50 units of armored and automotive equipment in Stetskovka, Sumy Oblast.
Undisclosed Location:
Russian drone operators from the 30th Special Forces Company, "East" group, conducted combat operations. This highlights the widespread use of drones by Russian forces.
Airborne forces’ drone operators destroyed a Ukrainian howitzer that was obstructing assault operations. This demonstrates the use of drones for close air support.
Internal Russian Issues
FSB are investigating potentially leaked information.
Rostov-on-Don: Searches are being conducted at the MREO (Interdistrict Registration and Examination Department) building, with documents being seized. This suggests a potential internal security or corruption investigation.
Moscow: FSB detained a supporter of "Azov" for allegedly attempting to persuade Russian soldiers to defect.
Currency Changes: 5 and 10 ruble coins are being replaced by paper banknotes.
Wildberries: Investigation is underway.
Russian Politics
State Duma: Deputies have prepared an amendment to the constitution allowing regions to determine the local government model. This is a significant political development, potentially indicating a move towards greater regional autonomy or centralization, depending on implementation.
Putin-Mishustin Meeting: Putin and Mishustin are holding a working meeting on economic development. This highlights the focus on economic issues amidst the ongoing conflict. Mishustin reports 4.1% GDP growth in 2024, exceeding expectations, with nominal GDP reaching a historic high. This is likely intended to project economic stability. Mishustin also claims Russia has successfully dealt with sanctions, while those imposing them have suffered. Mishustin stated that inflation is Russia’s main economic challenge, and that unemployment is low. Putin tasked the government with reducing inflation in 2025. These statements are clearly aimed at bolstering domestic confidence and projecting an image of economic resilience. Real income of the population has reportedly increased.
Lipetsk Region: Governor Artamonov reports significant investment in the agricultural sector and environmental improvements. This highlights regional economic and environmental initiatives.
Russian Duma: Received the treaty with Belarus, that concerns security guarantees.
International Relations
EU-Ukraine: Ukraine's Deputy PM Stefanishyna attributes Hungary and Slovakia's blocking of Ukraine's EU path to political maneuvering, linked to broader geopolitical shifts and the new US presidential administration. This highlights the complex international political dynamics affecting Ukraine's EU aspirations. The ending of the Russian gas transit contract is reportedly not a threat to EU energy security.
Azerbaijan-Russia: Rising tensions are evident. A Russian public figure, Sergei Mantsaev, made inflammatory statements calling for the expulsion of Azerbaijanis from Russia and the arrest of diaspora members in response to Azerbaijan's actions. This could signal a significant deterioration in relations. Leaked documents suggest Azerbaijan's intelligence service is gathering information in Russia for Ukraine, under the guidance of Israel and the UK. This could further escalate tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan.
Disinformation and Propaganda
Forbes "Oreshnik" Missile Report: Ukrainian and Russian sources dispute a Forbes report about a Russian "Oreshnik" missile failing and exploding in Russia. This highlights the ongoing information war and the need for verification.
Military and Personnel Issues
155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade (Pacific Fleet): Will be given the honorary title "Kurskaya" at the initiative of the marines, supported by Putin. This is a morale-boosting measure and recognition of the unit's role in the conflict.
Mobilized Soldier with PTSD (Valentin Stroev): Reports of a mobilized soldier with PTSD and psychiatric issues being forcibly sent back to the front after refusing to buy equipment for his unit. He is now missing and possibly a POW. This highlights potential issues with mobilization, treatment of soldiers with mental health conditions, and corruption within the Russian military.
Georgian Mercenaries: Reports of two Georgian mercenaries from an elite Ukrainian unit killed in action, potentially in the Kursk region.
Soldier: Report about a soldier missing a leg being assigned to a civil disability.
Ukrainian Recruitment: Reports of poor conditions in an Odessa recruitment center.
Other
Abkhazia: Reconstructed Sukhum airport sees first flights to Moscow, with several patients traveling for treatment. This indicates improved connectivity and potentially Russian support for Abkhazia. Several airlines have expressed interest in expanding flight programs.
Novgorod Region: Power outages continue, leaving villages without electricity and heat.
Sudan: Coup news.
US:
F-35 created from 2 crashed jets.
Democrats are protesting to impeach Trump.
USAID is still paralyzed.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been appointed as the acting head of USAID.
EU:
EU criticizes Trump for ICC sanctions.
Ukrainian Air Force: Shooting down of a guided aerial bomb (KAB) in Zaporizhzhia is confirmed.
Updated Situation Assessment
The key developments are:
Intensified Fighting and Drone Warfare (Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Regions):[Highest Priority] Fighting and drone activity continue across multiple fronts, particularly in the Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk regions. The confirmed strikes on Huliaipole and ongoing drone threats highlight the continued pressure on civilian infrastructure and the two-way nature of drone warfare. The reports of significant Ukrainian losses in the Kursk area needs to be verified.
Internal Russian Issues and Potential Instability:[High Priority] The combination of internal security investigations (Rostov-on-Don, "Azov" supporter arrest), potential constitutional changes regarding regional autonomy, and ongoing economic challenges (despite reported growth) suggests a complex internal situation within Russia.
Escalating Tensions with Azerbaijan:[High Priority] The inflammatory rhetoric and allegations of Azerbaijani intelligence activity against Russia signal a significant deterioration in relations, potentially impacting regional stability.
Potential Issues within the Russian Military:[High Priority] The case of the mobilized soldier with PTSD being forced back to the front and potentially captured, along with reports of corruption and poor conditions, raise serious concerns about the Russian military's treatment of personnel and its overall effectiveness.
Ukraine's EU Accession Challenges:[Medium Priority] Hungary and Slovakia's blocking of Ukraine's EU path, attributed to political maneuvering, underscores the complex geopolitical landscape and the challenges Ukraine faces in its integration efforts.
Updated Recommendations
Verify Reports of Ukrainian Losses (Kursk Region):[Highest Priority]Utilize all available intelligence assets to independently verify the Russian MoD's claims of significant Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region. This should include:
Cross-referencing with satellite imagery, signals intelligence, and human intelligence reports.
Assessing the credibility of sources reporting on these losses.
Analyzing any available visual evidence (photos, videos).
Monitor Russian Internal Situation:[High Priority] Closely monitor the internal situation within Russia, focusing on:
The progress and outcomes of security investigations (Rostov-on-Don, "Azov" supporter).
The implications of any constitutional changes regarding regional autonomy.
Any signs of social unrest or instability.
Economic indicators and their impact on the war effort.
Assess Azerbaijan-Russia Relations:[High Priority] Thoroughly assess the escalating tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan. This should involve:
Verifying the claims of Azerbaijani intelligence activity in Russia.
Analyzing the potential impact on regional stability and alliances.
Monitoring any further diplomatic or military actions by either side.
Investigate Reports of Mistreatment of Russian Soldiers:[High Priority] Gather further information on the case of Valentin Stroev and any other reports of mobilized soldiers with medical issues being mistreated or forced to fight. This could involve:
Analyzing open-source information (social media, news reports).
Seeking corroboration from human intelligence sources, if possible.
Assessing the potential impact on Russian troop morale and recruitment.
Continue to Support Ukraine's EU Integration:
Maintain diplomatic communications with the EU and nations involved.
Maintain All Previous Recommendations: The remaining recommendations from previous analyses remain valid and should be implemented concurrently with these updates. The situation remains extremely dynamic and requires continuous monitoring.
The conflicting reports, ongoing fighting, internal Russian issues, and escalating international tensions require immediate and sustained attention. The situation remains highly dynamic and requires continuous monitoring and analysis. The potential for further escalation and instability is significant.
