Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 11:30 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 11:00 UTC, February 7)
Military Operations
Kursk Region (Continued Conflicting Reports, Intense Focus):
"Dva Mayora" provides a report from "Moisey," a drone operator from "Group Aida," who claims that the Ukrainian objective was to seize Ulanok and encircle a specific Russian military group. He asserts that this plan failed due to the actions of Russian forces, including marines, VDV, Spetsnaz Akhmat, and motorized infantry. He further indicates that "night squadrons" of heavy bombers will soon be deployed, implying an upcoming intensification of operations with a focus on night attacks. This report directly reinforces previous claims from "Dva Mayora," suggesting a coordinated information campaign. This reinforces the need to verify the reports before making any decisions.
"Dva Mayora" also added an analysis that current surveillance and targeting tools do not provide enough insight on the battlefront.
Zaporizhzhia Region:
Reports of Russian forces destroying an enemy MLRS using a drone.
Drone Warfare
Continued Extensive Use (Confirmed): Reports about a drone destroying an enemy MLRS.
Internal Russian Issues
FSB Arrest (Confirmed): The FSB in Moscow has detained a supporter of the "Azov" battalion (recognized as a terrorist organization in Russia), who was allegedly attempting to persuade Russian military personnel to defect to the Ukrainian side. This is a significant counterintelligence operation, potentially indicating internal security concerns within Russia.
Currency Changes: The Bank of Russia is replacing coins.
Wildberries: Wildberries is being investigated.
Other
Sudan: News about the coup has been released.
Russian Forces:
* Reports on the Chechen 78th motorized rifle regiment "North-AHMAT" receiving state awards.
* Russian forces are using a remote-controlled minelayer.
Kursk: Russian MoD confirms that over 370 Ukrainian casualties have been reported in one day.
US Politics:
Reports that Democrats are protesting to impeach Trump and that USAID is still paralyzed.
US is building an F-35 out of 2 crashed jets, with the cost being significantly lower than that of a new jet.
The White House Press Secretary criticizes the Democrats for spending on foreign aid.
European Union:
Reports on EU criticizing Trump over ICC.
Ukrainian Air Force:
Confirmed the shooting down of a guided aerial bomb (KAB) in Zaporizhzhia. The method remains undisclosed.
Reports of threats of ballistic weaponry use from the east in areas under air raid alerts.
Kursk Region (Intensified Conflicting Reports):[Highest Priority] The situation in the Kursk region remains the primary focus, with intensified conflicting reports and coordinated claims from pro-Russian sources. The claimed Ukrainian objective of encircling Russian forces, reported by "Moisey" and "Dva Mayora," and the assertion of imminent "night squadron" deployments, suggest a deliberate narrative being pushed, which reinforces the critical need for independent verification.
Internal Russian Security (FSB Arrest):[High Priority] The confirmed arrest of an "Azov" supporter recruiting Russian military personnel highlights a potential internal security threat that requires further investigation. This could indicate a vulnerability within the Russian military or a potential attempt by Ukraine to exploit internal dissent.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Urgently Verify Conflicting Reports (Kursk Region):[Highest Priority]All available intelligence assets to independently verify the conflicting reports. Prioritize:
Verifying the claims of "Moisey" regarding the Ukrainian objective, the success of Russian forces, and the planned deployment of "night squadrons." This requires corroboration with other intelligence sources, including satellite imagery, signal intelligence, and human intelligence.
Determining the method of attack for the Zaporizhzhia MLRS destruction.
Maintain All Previous Recommendations: The remaining recommendations from previous analyses remain valid and should be implemented concurrently with these updates. The situation remains extremely dynamic and requires continuous monitoring.
The coordinated reports from pro-Russian sources concerning the Kursk region, coupled with the confirmed FSB arrest, highlight the critical need for independent verification and analysis. The potential for escalation and internal security threats warrants immediate and sustained attention.
