Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 11:00 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 10:30 UTC, February 7)
Military Operations
Donetsk Region (Confirmed Russian Advance):[High Priority] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and "Voenkor Kotenok" both confirm the capture of the settlement of Druzhba in the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR). This represents a confirmed Russian advance and requires immediate assessment of its impact on Ukrainian defenses in the area.
Kupyansk, Kharkiv
Tsaplienko confirmed that a group of Russian soldiers attempted a breakthrough in the Kupyansk direction. It was repelled by the RPBPAK of the 114th brigade, Strix Squad platoon.
Kursk Region (Continued Conflicting Reports, Intense Focus):
Russian MoD Claims (Continued, Detailed): The Russian MoD continues to claim significant Ukrainian losses in the Kursk direction, reporting over 370 Ukrainian casualties in a single day, along with the destruction of substantial equipment. They list specific units targeted and locations of engagement. These figures remain extremely high and require independent verification. The MoD explicitly states that Ukrainian attempts to carry out counter-offensive actions towards Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok were thwarted, and that all attacks were repelled.
"Voenkor Kotenok" Claims (Detailed, Conflicting): "Voenkor Kotenok" reports that all Ukrainian military equipment involved in the "counteroffensive" in the Cherkasskaya Konopelka - Ulanok area was destroyed. They claim that Fanasievka and Ulanok are fully under Russian control, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka is mostly under Russian control, with Ukrainian forces clinging to positions in the west of the village. This contradicts previous reports from Alex Parker Returns and directly clashes with Ukrainian official statements.
"Rybar" Report (Detailed, Conflicting, Critical Assessment): "Rybar" reports relative calm in the Sudzhansky district, with ongoing positional battles. They state that neither side has full control over Fanasievka and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. They report a Ukrainian drone attack in the center of Sudzha and claim the Ukrainian military is regrouping. Importantly, "Rybar" highlights potential Russian vulnerabilities and lack of preparedness: very preliminary information indicates a lack of Russian personnel in Cherkasskaya Konopelka at the start of the Ukrainian attack, a Ukrainian bridge crossing at Kolmakov, and potential issues with Russian brigade command. This report remains the most detailed and critical, even though it is still unconfirmed. It raises serious questions about Russian defensive capabilities in the area. "Dva Mayora" reports that Russian forces are experiencing difficulties in this region, particularly due to false reports.
Ukrainian Perspective (Limited): "Operatsiya Z" reports that fighting continues in the areas of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanasievka, with Ukrainian forces entrenched on the outskirts of Ulanok. This suggests a more contested situation than claimed by the Russian MoD and "Voenkor Kotenok."
Dnipropetrovsk Region (Continued Fighting, Confirmed Russian Advance): "Voenkor Kotenok" reports intense fighting, with Ukrainian forces counterattacking using armored vehicles to prevent a Russian breakthrough into the Dnipropetrovsk region. Russian assault units advanced and captured the center of Uspenivka (DNR). Battles continue south and southwest of Nadezhdinka, and in the northern and eastern parts of Serebrianka. Ukrainian forces have introduced reserves near the T-0515 road and are actively using artillery and drones.
Kharkiv Region (Continued Shelling and Drone Activity):
Reports of a second drone strike in Kharkiv's Osnovyanskyi district, causing a fire. Details are being assessed.
Continued Air Threat: Multiple reports of ballistic missile threats towards Lozova and Barvinkove in the Kharkiv region.
Donetsk Region (Positional Fighting):
"Voenkor Kotenok" reported that, on the left flank of the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, the situation remains unchanged. Battles are in Udachnoe, where the Russian forces are fighting for the station and houses. North-west of Kotlino, the Russian forces are trying to get through in the area of the railway. In Zverevo and north-east of Peschanoye, the Russian troops are attempting to move towards the "terrikon" and fighting off counterattacks.
"Sleechny Kapriz" reported that a Russian FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian PzH 2000 self-propelled artillery unit in a counter-battery operation near Chasov Yar-Fedorovka. Detonation of ammunition was observed.
"Colonelcassad" reported that a Russian FPV drone successfully hit a Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicle during a counter-offensive operation near Kreminna-Yampolivka. Detonation of ammunition was observed.
Zaporizhzhia Region:
The air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region has been cleared.
"RBK-Ukraina" confirmed that the Ukrainian Air Force shot down a KAB (guided aerial bomb) in the Zaporizhzhia region yesterday.
Drone Warfare
Continued Extensive Use (Confirmed): Multiple reports and videos continue to confirm the extensive use of drones by both sides. Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed a Russian MT-LB, three personnel, and a dugout in the Kharkiv region using drones ("STERNENKO"). Ukrainian forces also report successful use of FPV drones against Russian air defenses ("STERNENKO"). Russian forces report using FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian UAV control points ("Kotsnews") and military vehicles ("Colonelcassad," "Sleechny Kapriz").
Geopolitical Developments
US-Ukraine Relations (Ramstein Meeting, No New Aid Packages): Confirmed that the Ramstein meeting on February 12 will occur without new aid packages, a significant development.
US-Russia Relations (Tensions, Potential Negotiations): Dmitry Peskov stated that there is "nothing substantive" regarding negotiations with Ukraine, emphasizing the need for "patience." He also said that there is no specific understanding regarding US plans for a settlement in Ukraine. This suggests a continued stalemate and lack of progress on the diplomatic front.
Russia-Syria Relations (Potential Base Negotiations): Some progress on negotiations regarding Russian bases in Syria, with ongoing discussions about the terms, including potential payments in grain, oil, and weapons.
Moldova: The President of Moldova is holding off on approving the new Russian ambassador, citing confrontation with Moscow.
Europe-Ukraine:
France (Russian Media): A Russian journalist was denied accreditation in France, labelled an act of harassment by Maria Zakharova.
UK-Apple: UK authorities have demanded access to encrypted user data, while Apple is reluctant to comply, potentially leading to the tech company ending encrypted data storage in Britain.
Ukraine-EU: Olga Stefanishina (Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration) provided an update on Ukraine's progress towards opening negotiations on EU membership clusters. Hungary's lack of urgency in reaching a consensus is a point of concern.
Rosatom and IAEA: Discussions were held between the heads of Rosatom and the IAEA regarding regular rotations of experts on the ZNPP.
Internal Russian Issues
"Baymak Case" (Sentences Confirmed): Multiple sources confirm prison sentences for six individuals accused of participating in the Baymak protests.
Veteran Crime (Reported): Reports on a Chechen man murdered in Dzerzhinsk.
Digital Ruble: The Russian State Duma views the digital ruble as a convenient tool for long-term savings.
Fake QR Codes: 150 fake QR codes were used in Moscow.
ByteDance: ByteDance is reportedly delaying discussions on the sale of TikTok.
Bitcoin: Experts predict a possible Bitcoin correction to $75-82,000.
MTS Outage: Roskomnadzor (Russian communications regulator) reported a surge in complaints about MTS (mobile operator) service, which is now being addressed.
Duma Committee Changes: Deputy Andrey Gurulyov has been removed from the Duma's Defense Committee and placed on the Committee for Regional Policy and Local Self-Government. This could indicate a shift in focus towards managing the internal impacts of the conflict.
Wildberries Inspection: The Moscow Region Prosecutor's Office will inspect Wildberries (a major online retailer) due to employee complaints about searches involving undressing to underwear.
Military Suicides: Reports of a wounded veteran committing suicide in Novosibirsk Oblast.
Internal Ukrainian Issues
Zaporizhzhia: An underground school has been opened and air raid alert for the area was cancelled.
Death During Military Medical Exam (Confirmed, Multiple Reports): Continued reports of this incident.
Kharkiv Region: Reports on teacher support and fake news about the "killing" of a man.
Zaporizhzhia OVA: Announced that the "Transparency and Accountability" group found no price inflation in tenders.
Zelenskyy: A law was signed prohibiting organ removal from deceased soldiers and homeless people.
Forced Mobilization: Mobilized soldiers were reportedly forced to leave the hospital and go to war.
Public Concerns (Economic Issues, Survey): Reports on a Ukrainian survey showing that the primary concerns for Ukrainians are rising prices (33%) and economic crisis (32%), surpassing concerns about increased shelling (27%) and further territorial occupation (25%).
SOF Recruitment: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced the selection of candidates for the Qualification Course (Q-course) of the Special Operations Forces, offering a fast track to service for existing military personnel and a recruitment path for civilians.
Scam Call Centers: The National Police dismantled fraudulent call centers targeting pensioners.
Other
Water Outages (Reported): Reports water outages in several cities in the Luhansk region due to power outages at pumping stations.
Russian Forces:
* Reports on the Chechen 78th motorized rifle regiment "North-AHMAT" receiving state awards.
* Russian forces are using a remote-controlled minelayer.
Kursk: Russian MoD confirms that over 370 Ukrainian casualties have been reported in one day.
US Politics:
Reports that Democrats are protesting to impeach Trump and that USAID is still paralyzed.
The White House Press Secretary criticizes the Democrats for spending on foreign aid.
Ukrainian Air Force:
Confirmed the shooting down of a guided aerial bomb (KAB) in Zaporizhzhia. The method remains undisclosed.
Reports of threats of ballistic weaponry use from the east in areas under air raid alerts.
Donetsk Region: Confirmed Russian Advance at Druzhba:[Highest Priority] The confirmed capture of Druzhba by Russian forces is a significant tactical gain that necessitates immediate analysis. This advance likely alters the local balance of power and could open new avenues of attack for Russian forces.
Kursk Region Offensive (Highly Contested, Intensified Conflicting Reports):[Highest Priority] The situation in the Kursk region remains the primary focus, with intensified conflicting reports. The Russian MoD's claims of a major Ukrainian defeat persist but are increasingly challenged by more detailed reports suggesting ongoing fighting and unclear control over key villages. "Rybar's" report, though unconfirmed, suggests potential Russian vulnerabilities and lack of preparedness. The claimed Ukrainian advance of 5 kilometers southeast of Sudzha, reported by ASTRA, ISW, and Russian Z-channels, is a significant claim that requires urgent verification.
Dnipropetrovsk Region (Confirmed Russian Advance): The confirmed Russian advance in Uspenivka, capturing the center of the village, marks a tactical shift and intensifies the threat to the Dnipropetrovsk region. Continued fighting in the area, with Ukrainian counterattacks, underscores the dynamic and contested nature of this front.
Air Threat (Continued, Multiple Regions): The continued threat of Russian air activity, including drone attacks and now reported ballistic missile threats in the Kharkiv region, poses an immediate threat to multiple regions.
Donetsk Region (Continued Fighting): Positional battles continue, with confirmed Russian use of precision-guided munitions (Lancet drone). Confirmed Ukrainian use of drones for attacks and reconnaissance.
US Support for Ukraine (Potential Shift): The confirmation that no new US military aid packages will be announced at the upcoming Ramstein meeting remains a major concern.
Internal Ukrainian Issues (Growing Crisis): The recurring issue of deaths during military medical examinations, coupled with the reported forced mobilization of injured soldiers, remains a critical issue that requires immediate attention.
Information Warfare (Intensified): The conflicting reports on the Kursk region and the potential exploitation of internal Ukrainian issues continue to highlight the intensified information warfare environment.
Ballistic missile threats toward Lozova and Barvinkove.
Ukraine-NATO: The Ukraine-NATO Council will be meeting to discuss further action.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Urgently Verify Conflicting Reports (Kursk Region):[Highest Priority] Deploy all available intelligence assets to independently verify the conflicting reports on the situation in the Kursk region. This is crucial for accurately assessing the situation and making informed decisions. Prioritize:
Verifying Russian MoD claims of massive Ukrainian losses.
Confirming or debunking the claimed Ukrainian advance of 5 kilometers southeast of Sudzha.
Determining the actual control status of key villages (Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Ulanok, Fanasievka).
Investigating "Rybar's" claims of potential Russian vulnerabilities and lack of preparedness.
Gathering information on Ukrainian troop movements, equipment losses, and potential reinforcements.
Assess Impact of Druzhba Capture (Donetsk Region):[High Priority] Analyze the strategic implications of the confirmed Russian capture of Druzhba. Determine:
Potential new avenues of attack for Russian forces.
Vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses in the surrounding area.
Impact on supply lines and logistics.
Prepare counter-strategies to mitigate the Russian advance.
Prepare for Potential Russian Offensive (Dnipropetrovsk Region): Given the confirmed Russian advance in Uspenivka and ongoing fighting, increase readiness in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Prepare for potential further Russian offensive actions.
Maintain High Air Defense Readiness (Multiple Regions): Given the continued threat of Russian air activity, drone attacks, and now ballistic missile threats, maintain high air defense readiness across frontline areas, with particular emphasis on the Kharkiv region.
Exploit Tactical Successes: Continue to exploit any Ukrainian tactical successes in drone warfare and counter-battery operations.
Assess Russian Reserve Interdiction Efforts: Continue to analyze reports.
Prepare Counteroffensive Strategies: Evaluate and analyze all battle areas.
Monitor Geopolitical Developments: Closely monitor US-Ukraine relations and the upcoming Ramstein meeting.
Address Internal Russian Issues: Continue to monitor and analyze reports of dissent, crime, and internal challenges within Russia.
Address Internal Ukrainian Issues (Urgent and Publicly):[High Priority] Immediately address the recurring issue of deaths during military medical examinations. The forced mobilization of injured soldiers is a critical issue.
Enhance Drone and Counter-Drone Capabilities: Continue to invest in and develop drone and counter-drone technologies.
Counter Russian Information Warfare (Aggressively):[High Priority] Actively counter Russian disinformation and propaganda.
Address Geopolitical Concerns:
Prepare talking points for a variety of scenarios in Ukraine.
Prepare a statement in response to Trump administration claims.
Syria: Prepare strategic response plan in case Turkish military bases are placed in central Syria.
Zaporizhzhia: Address the report of shooting down the guided aerial bomb.
The remaining recommendations from previous analyses remain valid and should be implemented concurrently with these updates. The situation is extremely dynamic and requires continuous monitoring and adaptation. The conflicting reports and potential for escalation in the Kursk region, coupled with the confirmed Russian advance in Druzhba, are of paramount concern.
