Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 10:30 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 10:00 UTC, February 7)
Military Operations
Kursk Region (Highly Contested, Conflicting Reports, Continued Fighting):
Russian MoD Claims (Continued): The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to claim significant Ukrainian losses, including over 58,230 personnel, 348 tanks, and vast amounts of other equipment since the start of the fighting in the Kursk direction. These figures remain extremely high and highly suspect. The MoD also states that Ukrainian forces lost over 370 personnel and 11 tanks in just one day.
Conflicting Reports on Village Control (Intensified): "Voenkor Kotenok" states that Fanasievka and Ulanok are fully under Russian control, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka is mostly under Russian control. This directly contradicts previous reports from Alex Parker Returns, further intensifying the conflicting narratives. "Operatsiya Z" reports that fighting continues in the areas of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanasievka, with Ukrainian forces entrenched on the outskirts of Ulanok.
Russian Counteroffensive Claims (Continued): The Russian MoD claims to have thwarted a Ukrainian counteroffensive attempt towards Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok. This claim is persistent but lacks independent verification.
"Rybar" Report (Detailed, Conflicting): "Rybar" reports relative calm in the Sudzhansky district, with ongoing positional battles. They state that neither side has full control over Fanasievka and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. They report a Ukrainian drone attack in the center of Sudzha and claim the Ukrainian military is regrouping. "Rybar" also reports very preliminary information indicating a lack of Russian personnel in Cherkasskaya Konopelka at the start of the Ukrainian attack, a Ukrainian bridge crossing at Kolmakov, and potential issues with Russian brigade command. This report provides the most detailed, albeit still unconfirmed, account of the situation, highlighting potential Russian vulnerabilities.
Dnipropetrovsk Region (Continued Drone Activity): "Voenkor Kotenok" reports intense fighting, with Ukrainian forces counterattacking using armored vehicles, trying to prevent a Russian breakthrough into the Dnipropetrovsk region. Russian assault units advanced in Uspenivka (DNR) and captured the center of the village. This represents a confirmed Russian advance. Battles continue south and southwest of Nadezhdinka, and in the northern and eastern parts of Serebrianka. Ukrainian forces have introduced reserves near the T-0515 road and are actively using artillery and drones.
Kharkiv Region (Continued Shelling and Drone Activity):
Oleg Sinegubov, head of the Kharkiv OVA, reports that 48 people were injured due to the shelling in Kupyansk.
Drone Activity: The Ukrainian Air Force continues to report drone activity in the Kharkiv region, indicating a persistent risk.
"OTU "Kharkiv" reported that a high-speed target was moving towards the south-west of Kharkiv Oblast.
Donetsk Region (Positional Fighting):
"Voenkor Kotenok" reported that, on the left flank of the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, the situation remains unchanged. Battles are in Udachnoe, where the Russian forces are fighting for the station and houses. North-west of Kotlino, the Russian forces are trying to get through in the area of the railway. In Zverevo and north-east of Peschanoye, the Russian troops are attempting to move towards the "terrikon" and fighting off counterattacks.
Lancet Strike: The "Narodnaya Militsiya DNR" video confirming a Lancet drone strike on a Ukrainian M777 howitzer.
Zaporizhzhia Region:
Drone Operations: "429th separate regiment of unmanned systems "ACHILLES"" published additional footage.
Sumy Region:
Continued Air Strikes: Confirmed reports of 3 casualties from Russian aerial bombs in Myropillia.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that a high-speed target had been detected on the border with the Sumy region. The threat was later cleared.
Drone Warfare
Continued Extensive Use (Confirmed): "Operational ZSU" shows destruction of APC using a drone strike. Multiple reports and videos continue to confirm the extensive use of drones by both sides, with strikes reported in Kursk, Donetsk, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
Geopolitical Developments
US-Ukraine Relations (Ramstein Meeting, No New Aid Packages):
STERNENKO confirmed the Ramstein meeting on February 12 with no additional packages.
US-Russia Relations (Tensions):
Trump Administration's Position: Alex Parker confirms that Trump doubled down on Russian sanctions.
Russia-Ukraine Negotiations (Stalemate): Peskov stated that "patience" is needed regarding negotiations with Ukraine and that there is "nothing substantive" on the matter.
Russia-Syria Relations (Potential Base Negotiations): Colonelcassad reports some progress on negotiations regarding Russian bases in Syria, with ongoing discussions about the terms, including potential payments in grain, oil, and weapons.
Moldova: Maia Sandu, President of Moldova, is holding off on approving the new Russian ambassador, citing confrontation with Moscow.
Europe-Ukraine:
France (Russian Media): A Russian journalist was denied accreditation in France, labelled an act of harassment by Maria Zakharova.
UK-Apple: UK authorities have demanded access to encrypted user data, while Apple is reluctant to comply, potentially leading to the tech company ending encrypted data storage in Britain.
Rosatom and IAEA: Discussions were held between the heads of Rosatom and the IAEA regarding regular rotations of experts on the ZNPP.
TASS reports that the IAEA and Rosatom are still discussing rotations, and that Rosatom has applied to extend the operations of Block 1.
Internal Russian Issues
"Baymak Case" (Sentences Confirmed): Multiple sources confirm prison sentences for six individuals accused of participating in the Baymak protests.
Veteran Crime (Reported): "BUTUSOV PLYUS" reports on the Chechen man murdered in Dzerzhinsk.
Digital Ruble: The Russian State Duma views the digital ruble as a convenient tool for long-term savings.
Fake QR Codes: 150 fake QR codes were used in Moscow.
ByteDance: ByteDance is reportedly delaying discussions on the sale of TikTok.
Bitcoin: Experts predict a possible Bitcoin correction to $75-82,000.
Internal Ukrainian Issues
Death During Military Medical Exam (Confirmed, Multiple Reports): "Operatsiya Z" also reports on this incident.
Forced Mobilization: Mobilized soldiers were reportedly forced to leave the hospital and go to war. "MOBILIZATION | News | Conscripts" shared a video of this event.
Mobilization: A Ukrainian military officer in the reserves states that in 2024, the Russian army recruited at least 427,000 soldiers on contract.
Public Concerns (Economic Issues, Survey): "Dva Mayora" reports on a Ukrainian survey showing that the primary concerns for Ukrainians are rising prices (33%) and economic crisis (32%), surpassing concerns about increased shelling (27%) and further territorial occupation (25%).
Zaporizhzhia OVA announced that the "Transparency and Accountability" group found no price inflation in tenders.
Other
Water Outages (Reported): "Mash na Donbasse" reports water outages in several cities in the Luhansk region due to power outages at pumping stations.
Russian Forces: "Voenkor Kotenok" shows that Russian forces are using a remote-controlled minelayer.
Kursk: Russian MoD confirms that over 370 Ukrainian casualties have been reported in one day.
US Politics:
Alex Parker reported that Democrats are protesting to impeach Trump and that USAID is still paralyzed.
The White House Press Secretary criticizes the Democrats for spending on foreign aid.
Kursk Region Offensive (Highly Contested, Intensified Fighting):[Highest Priority] The situation in the Kursk region remains the primary focus, with intensified conflicting reports. The Russian MoD's claims of a major Ukrainian defeat persist but are increasingly challenged by more detailed reports suggesting ongoing fighting and unclear control over key villages. "Rybar's" report, though unconfirmed, suggests potential Russian vulnerabilities and lack of preparedness. The claimed Ukrainian advance of 5 kilometers southeast of Sudzha, reported by ASTRA, ISW, and Russian Z-channels, is a significant claim that requires urgent verification.
Dnipropetrovsk Region (Confirmed Russian Advance): The confirmed Russian advance in Uspenivka, capturing the center of the village, marks a tactical shift and intensifies the threat to the Dnipropetrovsk region. Continued fighting in the area, with Ukrainian counterattacks, underscores the dynamic and contested nature of this front.
Air Threat (Continued, Multiple Regions): The continued threat of Russian air activity, including drone attacks, poses an immediate threat to multiple regions.
Donetsk Region (Continued Fighting): Positional battles continue, with confirmed Russian use of precision-guided munitions (Lancet drone).
US Support for Ukraine (Potential Shift): The confirmation that no new US military aid packages will be announced at the upcoming Ramstein meeting remains a major concern.
Internal Ukrainian Issues (Growing Crisis): The recurring issue of deaths during military medical examinations, coupled with the reported forced mobilization of injured soldiers, remains a critical issue that requires immediate attention.
Information Warfare (Intensified): The conflicting reports on the Kursk region and the potential exploitation of internal Ukrainian issues continue to highlight the intensified information warfare environment.
Ukraine-NATO: The Ukraine-NATO Council will be meeting to discuss further action.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Urgently Verify Conflicting Reports (Kursk Region):[Highest Priority] Deploy all available intelligence assets to independently verify the conflicting reports on the situation in the Kursk region. This is crucial for accurately assessing the situation and making informed decisions. Prioritize:
Verifying Russian MoD claims of massive Ukrainian losses.
Confirming or debunking the claimed Ukrainian advance of 5 kilometers southeast of Sudzha.
Determining the actual control status of key villages (Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Ulanok, Fanasievka).
Investigating "Rybar's" claims of potential Russian vulnerabilities and lack of preparedness.
Gathering information on Ukrainian troop movements, equipment losses, and potential reinforcements.
Prepare for Potential Russian Offensive (Dnipropetrovsk Region): Given the confirmed Russian advance in Uspenivka and ongoing fighting, increase readiness in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Prepare for potential further Russian offensive actions.
Maintain High Air Defense Readiness (Multiple Regions): Given the continued threat of Russian air activity and drone attacks, maintain high air defense readiness across frontline areas.
Exploit Tactical Successes: Exploit any advantages.
Assess Russian Reserve Interdiction Efforts: Analyze any reports.
Prepare Counteroffensive Strategies: Evaluate and analyze all battle areas.
Monitor Geopolitical Developments: Closely monitor US-Ukraine relations and the upcoming Ramstein meeting.
Address Internal Russian Issues: Continue to monitor and analyze reports of dissent, crime, and internal challenges within Russia.
Address Internal Ukrainian Issues (Urgent and Publicly):[High Priority] Immediately address the recurring issue of deaths during military medical examinations. The forced mobilization of injured soldiers is a critical issue.
Enhance Drone and Counter-Drone Capabilities: Continue to invest in and develop drone and counter-drone technologies.
Counter Russian Information Warfare (Aggressively):[High Priority] Actively counter Russian disinformation and propaganda.
Address Geopolitical Concerns:
Prepare talking points for a variety of scenarios in Ukraine.
Prepare a statement in response to Trump administration claims.
Syria: Prepare strategic response plan in case Turkish military bases are placed in central Syria.
Zaporizhzhia: Send response units to address the possible air strike.
The remaining recommendations from previous analyses remain valid and should be implemented concurrently with these updates. The situation is extremely dynamic and requires continuous monitoring and adaptation. The conflicting reports and potential for escalation in the Kursk region are of paramount concern.
