Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 10:00 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 09:30 UTC, February 7)
Military Operations
Kursk Region (Highly Contested, Conflicting Reports, Russian Claims of Success):
Russian MoD Claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claims to have thwarted a Ukrainian counteroffensive attempt towards Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok, inflicting heavy losses (over 200 personnel, 8 tanks, 5 IFVs, 1 BTR, 30 armored vehicles, and 3 engineering vehicles). This significantly escalates previous claims and, if true, represents a major Ukrainian setback. The MoD also claims overall Ukrainian losses in the Kursk direction to be over 58,230 personnel, 348 tanks, and significant amounts of other equipment since the start of the fighting. These numbers are extremely high and highly suspect, likely heavily inflated for propaganda purposes.
Russian MoD Reports: Russian MoD reports over 370 Ukrainian casualties in one day.
Conflicting Reports on Village Control: Alex Parker Returns reports Ukrainian forces holding Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanasievka, with Ukrainian forces entrenched on the outskirts of Ulanok. He also reports a lack of Russian advances and attributes the loss of Makhnovka to a withdrawal of Russian troops after their positions were not relieved. This directly contradicts Russian MoD claims and reinforces the assessment of intense fighting and unclear control.
Continued Drone Activity: The Russian MoD provides video evidence of "Rubikon" drone teams repelling a Ukrainian attack in the Kursk region. This confirms the continued importance of drones in the fighting.
Sumy Region (Continued Airstrikes): Confirmed reports of 3 casualties from Russian guided aerial bombs in Myropillia. This indicates the persistent threat to civilian populations and infrastructure.
Kharkiv Region (Continued Shelling and Drone Activity):
Shelling in Kupyansk: Confirmed shelling in Kupyansk, injuring a civilian and damaging an ambulance. This highlights the ongoing risk to civilians and medical infrastructure. ASTRA also reports a civilian casualty in Kupyansk due to Russian shelling.
Drone Activity: The Ukrainian Air Force reports drone activity in the Kharkiv region and a threat of air strikes in frontline areas. This indicates a continued risk of air attacks.
Oleg Sinegubov, head of the Kharkiv OVA, reports that 40 people were evacuated.
Donetsk Region (Positional Fighting):
Lancet Strike: The "Narodnaya Militsiya DNR" reports a successful Lancet drone strike on a Ukrainian M777 howitzer in the Alekseyevka area. This confirms continued Russian use of precision-guided munitions.
Krasnoarmeisk-Peschanoe: Reported positional military action on the "Krasnoarmeiskaya-Zapadnaya No.3" mine.
Zaporizhzhia Region (Melitopol Substation Attack, Confirmed):
Power Outages: Multiple sources confirm a Ukrainian attack on a high-voltage substation in Melitopol, causing power outages. This disruption of critical infrastructure is a significant event. Voenkor Kotenok also confirms the attack.
Drone Operations: "429th separate regiment of unmanned systems "ACHILLES"" shares footage.
Drone Warfare
Continued Extensive Use (Confirmed): Multiple reports confirm the continued extensive use of drones by both sides, with strikes reported in Kursk and Donetsk regions.
Geopolitical Developments
US-Ukraine Relations (Ramstein Meeting, No New Aid Packages):
Ramstein Meeting Confirmed: STERNENKO confirms that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will attend the Ramstein meeting on February 12 in Brussels. However, sources indicate that no new US military aid packages will be announced. This is a significant development, potentially indicating a pause or shift in US support for Ukraine. The UK officially confirms it is calling the Ramstein meeting.
US-Russia Relations (Tensions):
US Sanctions on ICC: Kremlin spokesperson Peskov stated that Russia does not recognize the ICC and that US sanctions against it are "not our business." This highlights the continued strained relations and Russia's disregard for international institutions.
Trump Administration's Position: Alex Parker states that Trump doubled down on Russian sanctions.
Russia-Ukraine Negotiations (Stalemate): Peskov stated that "patience" is needed regarding negotiations with Ukraine and that there is "nothing substantive" on the matter. This indicates a continued deadlock in negotiations.
Russia-Syria Relations (Potential Base Negotiations): Colonelcassad reports some progress on negotiations regarding Russian bases in Syria, with ongoing discussions about the terms, including potential payments in grain, oil, and weapons. This highlights Russia's efforts to maintain its strategic presence in the region.
Moldova: Maia Sandu, President of Moldova, is holding off on approving the new Russian ambassador, citing confrontation with Moscow.
Europe-Ukraine:
France (Russian Media): A Russian journalist was denied accreditation in France, labelled an act of harassment by Maria Zakharova.
UK-Apple: UK authorities have demanded access to encrypted user data, while Apple is reluctant to comply, potentially leading to the tech company ending encrypted data storage in Britain.
Rosatom and IAEA: Discussions were held between the heads of Rosatom and the IAEA regarding regular rotations of experts on the ZNPP.
Internal Russian Issues
"Baymak Case" (Sentences Confirmed): Multiple sources confirm prison sentences for six individuals accused of participating in the Baymak protests. This demonstrates continued suppression of dissent within Russia.
Veteran Crime (Reported): BUTUSOV PLYUS reports a veteran of the war in Ukraine, previously released from prison, fatally stabbed a Chechen man in Dzerzhinsk. This highlights potential social issues related to the reintegration of veterans and ethnic tensions.
Internal Ukrainian Issues
Death During Military Medical Exam (Confirmed, Multiple Reports): Multiple sources confirm the death of a 32-year-old man in Chernivtsi during a military medical examination after being apprehended for evading mobilization. This continues to raise serious concerns about the mobilization process, the health of conscripts, and potential public backlash. This is a recurring issue. "Operatsiya Z" also reports on this incident.
Forced Mobilization: Mobilized soldiers were reportedly forced to leave the hospital and go to war.
Mobilization: A Ukrainian military officer in the reserves states that in 2024, the Russian army recruited at least 427,000 soldiers on contract.
Public Concerns (Economic Issues, Survey): "Dva Mayora" reports on a Ukrainian survey showing that the primary concerns for Ukrainians are rising prices (33%) and economic crisis (32%), surpassing concerns about increased shelling (27%) and further territorial occupation (25%). This indicates a significant shift in public priorities and potential vulnerability due to economic hardship.
Other
Water Outages (Reported): "Mash na Donbasse" reports water outages in several cities in the Luhansk region due to power outages at pumping stations.
Russian Forces: "Voenkor Kotenok" shows that Russian forces are using a remote-controlled minelayer.
Kursk Region Offensive (Highly Contested, Potential Major Shift):[Highest Priority] The situation in the Kursk region remains the primary focus, with highly conflicting reports. The Russian MoD's claims of a major Ukrainian defeat, including massive losses, are a significant escalation, but are directly contradicted by other sources. Independent verification is urgently needed. The confirmed continued use of drones by both sides underscores the importance of this aspect of the fighting.
Air Threat (Continued, Multiple Regions): The confirmed threat of Russian air activity, including guided aerial bombs, and drone activity pose an immediate threat to multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk.
Donetsk Region (Continued Fighting): Positional battles continue, with confirmed Russian use of precision-guided munitions (Lancet drone).
US Support for Ukraine (Potential Shift): The confirmation that no new US military aid packages will be announced at the upcoming Ramstein meeting is a major development, potentially signaling a change in US policy or capacity.
Internal Ukrainian Issues (Growing Crisis): The recurring issue of deaths during military medical examinations, coupled with the reported forced mobilization of injured soldiers, is a serious crisis that requires immediate attention. The survey highlighting economic concerns as a primary worry for Ukrainians adds another layer of complexity.
Information Warfare (Intensified): The conflicting reports on the Kursk region and the potential exploitation of internal Ukrainian issues highlight the intensified information warfare environment.
Geopolitical: Reports discuss the possibility of Turkish military bases being placed in central Syria.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Urgently Verify Russian Claims (Kursk Region):[Highest Priority] Deploy all available intelligence assets to independently verify the Russian MoD's claims of a major Ukrainian defeat in the Kursk region. This is crucial for accurately assessing the situation and making informed decisions. Prioritize gathering information on Ukrainian troop movements, equipment losses, and the status of key villages (Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Ulanok, Fanasievka, Makhnovka).
Maintain High Air Defense Readiness (Multiple Regions): Given the confirmed threat of Russian air activity and drone attacks, maintain high air defense readiness across frontline areas, especially in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk.
Exploit Tactical Successes: Exploit any advantages.
Assess Russian Reserve Interdiction Efforts: Analyze any reports.
Prepare Counteroffensive Strategies: Evaluate and analyze all battle areas.
Monitor Geopolitical Developments: Closely monitor US-Ukraine relations and the upcoming Ramstein meeting. Assess the implications of the lack of new US aid packages and prepare for potential shifts in US policy. Continue to monitor Russia-UK relations and developments in Syria.
Address Internal Russian Issues: Continue to monitor and analyze reports of dissent, crime, and internal challenges within Russia.
Address Internal Ukrainian Issues (Urgent and Publicly):[High Priority] Immediately address the recurring issue of deaths during military medical examinations. Implement transparent investigations, improve medical screening procedures, and address public concerns. The forced mobilization of injured soldiers is a critical issue that requires immediate action to prevent further harm and maintain public trust. Address economic concerns and prioritize public communication to counter potential exploitation of these issues.
Enhance Drone and Counter-Drone Capabilities: Continue to invest in and develop drone and counter-drone technologies, with a particular focus on countering guided aerial bombs.
Counter Russian Information Warfare (Aggressively):[High Priority] Actively counter Russian disinformation and propaganda, particularly regarding the situation in the Kursk region and internal Ukrainian issues.
Address Geopolitical Concerns:
Prepare talking points for a variety of scenarios in Ukraine.
Prepare a statement in response to Trump administration claims.
Syria: Prepare strategic response plan in case Turkish military bases are placed in central Syria.
The remaining recommendations from previous analyses remain valid and should be implemented concurrently with these updates. The situation is rapidly evolving, and continuous monitoring and adaptation are crucial.
