Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 09:30 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 09:01 UTC, February 7)
Military Operations
Kursk Region (Ukrainian Offensive, Highly Contested, Confirmed):
Continued Intense Fighting: Multiple sources, corroborate the ongoing, fierce combat in the Kursk region.
"Tunguska" Destroyed: "Dva Mayora" reports the destruction of a Ukrainian 2K22 "Tunguska" anti-aircraft system near Sudzha by Russian border guards and army units. This highlights the continued presence of Ukrainian air defense assets in the area, even amidst claims of a Russian counteroffensive. Video evidence was provided.
Requests for Drones: STERNENKO reports receiving multiple requests for new drones from the Kursk direction, indicating continued Ukrainian reliance on UAVs for reconnaissance and attack. This supports the assessment of ongoing, active combat.
ISW reports the same as previous.
Ukrainian forces were reported to have repelled 5 attacks.
Kharkiv Region (Artillery and Air Activity, Confirmed):
Ukrainian forces were reported to have repelled attacks near Vovchansk.
Intense Artillery and Air Strikes: "Starshe Eddy" reports intense Russian artillery and aviation activity on the Volchansk and Liptsy directions in the Kharkiv region, targeting Ukrainian forces. This reinforces the assessment of a major Russian offensive effort in this area.
Oleg Sinegubov, head of the Kharkiv OVA, reports continued shelling in Kupyansk. A 48-year-old woman was injured, and an ambulance was damaged. Seven houses were damaged in the village of Pristin.
Air Raid Alert: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic weapons use in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Sumy Region (Reported Elimination of Reserves):
"Dnevnik Desantnika" claims ongoing Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) operations to eliminate Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region, specifically those intended for deployment to the Kursk region. This suggests a Russian strategy of interdiction to prevent Ukrainian reinforcement of the Kursk front.
*Airstrikes reported at Dmytrivka and Mala Rybytsya.
Donetsk Region (Positional Fighting, Multiple Locations):
Chasiv Yar: Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk Direction: Clashes reported near Dyliyivka and Toretsk.
Pokrovsk Direction: Clashes were reported near Zelene Pole, Vodyane Druhe, Novotoretske, Pokrovsk, Pischane, Udachne, Myroliubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Dachne, Andriyivka and Shevchenko
Kramatorsk Direction: Video evidence presented by "Butusov Plus" shows a Ukrainian counter-diversionary operation in Toretsk, involving special forces ("Eney" battalion and "Khishchak" brigade) destroying a potential Russian base. This confirms continued Ukrainian special operations activity in the area.
Avdiivka Direction: Positional battles with intense combat situations.
Luhansk Region:
Siversk Direction: Liveuamap Source reports clashes near Bilohorivka.
Kupyansk Direction: Clashes were reported near Lozova, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Petropavlivka and Zahryzove.
* Lyman Direction: Clashes were reported near Zelenyi Hai, Kopanky, Novoserhiyivka, Hrekivka, Nove, Zelena Dolyny, Novolubivka, Katerynivka, Yampolivka, Terny and Kolodyazi.
Zaporizhzhia Region (Melitopol Substation Attack, Confirmed):
TASS confirms a Ukrainian attack on a high-voltage substation in Melitopol, causing power outages in the region. This represents a significant disruption of critical infrastructure.
Airstrikes were reported in Zaporizhzhia and Huliaipole.
Reportedly, the first interception of a guided bomb took place in the region.
Novopavlivka Region:
*Clashes were reported near Lysivka, Kostyantynopil and Rozdolne.
Drone Warfare
Widespread Drone Activity (Confirmed, Ongoing): The Ukrainian Air Force updates confirm continued drone activity across multiple regions.
Ukrainian Drone Acquisitions (Reported): STERNENKO reports receiving multiple requests for new drones from the Kursk and Pokrovsk directions. This underscores the critical role of drones in the current fighting and the high attrition rate.
"Presidential Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" shares video evidence of drone operations.
Russian Drone Use (Confirmed): "MoD Russia" provides video evidence of a Russian FPV drone destroying a Ukrainian pickup truck in the Kupyansk direction. This confirms continued Russian reliance on drones for tactical strikes.
Geopolitical Developments
Syria (Potential Turkish Bases, Israeli Concerns): "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" reports on a proposed Syrian-Turkish defense pact that could include Turkish airbases in central Syria. The report highlights potential Israeli opposition to such a move. This raises the possibility of a widening conflict and further regional instability.
USA (Trump):
*Trump administration measures:
American trade unions are suing the Trump administration and its members for measures to abolish USAID.
*The New York Post interviewed Trump representative on Ukraine, Keith Kellogg. He stated that the US will insist on a ceasefire in Ukraine, and only then have further talks. He wishes to end violence and death, before negotiating difficult peace settlement issues.
*Reportedly, the leader of the Senate Republican majority now uses a wheelchair, while the leader of the Democratic minority in the House of Representatives and former speaker Nancy Pelosi uses a walker.
*The US will insist on a ceasefire in Ukraine and only then - more detailed peace negotiations and direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.
Russia-UK Relations (Diplomatic Tensions):
TASS reports the UK Ministry of Foreign Affairs revoked the accreditation of a Russian diplomat and summoned the Russian ambassador in London, Andrei Kelin. This represents a further deterioration of relations between the two countries.
TASS reports potential Russian countermeasures against any British attempts to detain Russian ships, citing violations of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. This highlights potential maritime tensions.
Moldova-Russia Relations (Reported): TASS reports that Moldovan President Maia Sandu is delaying the approval of a new Russian ambassador due to confrontation with Moscow. This indicates continued strained relations between the two countries.
Ukraine-Europe:
*An interview with the head of the liberal-democratic faction in PACE, Romanian MP Julian Bulai, was published on the RBC-Ukraine website. He states that negotiations are needed to end the war, but it must be a fair peace. He also stated that it does not make sense to talk about elections in Ukraine until the war ends, but that online voting is an option.
France's Position on Russian Media: A Russian journalist was denied accreditation in France, labelled as an act of harassment by Maria Zakharova.
UK Demands Apple Access to Data: UK authorities have demanded access to encrypted user data, while Apple is reluctant to comply, potentially leading to the tech company ending encrypted data storage in Britain.
Internal Russian Issues
"Baymak Case" (Sentences, Confirmed): Multiple sources (ASTRA, Sever.Realii) report prison sentences of 4.5 to 5 years for six individuals accused of participating in mass riots in Baymak, Bashkortostan, in January 2024. This demonstrates continued Russian suppression of dissent and potential ethnic tensions.
Military Unit 09332 (Reported Issues): A video message from relatives of servicemen in military unit 09332 (7th Military Base in Abkhazia) alleges widespread issues within the unit.
Crime by Veteran (Reported): ASTRA reports a veteran of the war in Ukraine, previously a recidivist released from prison to fight as an assault trooper, stabbed and killed a Chechen man in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod region.
Military Volunteers Not Receiving Payment (Reported): Military volunteers in Khakassia have complained about not receiving payment.
Potential "Cooling Effect" of US sanctions on the ICC: Dr. Pyotr Kremnev states that the US sanctions against the ICC may have a "cooling effect", which may consist of not issuing entry visas to officials and their families.
Internal Ukrainian Issues
Man Dies During Military Medical Exam (Confirmed): Multiple sources (RBK-Ukraina, Operativnyi ZSU) report the death of a 32-year-old man in Chernivtsi during a military medical examination (VLK) after being apprehended for evading mobilization. This raises concerns about the mobilization process, the health of conscripts, and potential public backlash.
Mobilization: A Ukrainian military officer in the reserves states that in 2024, the Russian army recruited at least 427,000 soldiers on contract.
A man died during a medical examination at the TCC and SP in Bukovina after feeling ill and losing consciousness.
Other
Satire and Information Operations: Several posts highlight the ongoing use of satire and information operations to influence public opinion and morale.
Book Excerpt (Reported): Voenkor Kotenok highlights an excerpt of a book that divides the Russian population into different groups on participation to the war.
Video Reports (Reported): Voenkor Kotenok presents testimonies on soldiers participating in the war.
Skiing (Reported): A picture of a person practicing cross-country skiing has been shared, showing the importance of mobility in Winter.
Drone use (Reported): a picture shows a soldier holding a drone, indicating the reliance on the technology.
Rosatom and IAEA Discussions: Discussions were held between the heads of Rosatom and the IAEA regarding regular rotations of experts on the ZNPP.
Russian Language Protection Bill: The State Duma Culture Committee approved a bill to protect the Russian language in the first reading.
"Baimak Case": Six people were charged with participating in a public gathering in Baimak, Bashkortostan. Sentences range from 4.5 to 5 years in prison.
Possible Russian Ship Fire: A Russian spy ship, "Kildin", caught fire near Syria on January 23rd. It refused NATO help.
Kursk Region Offensive (Highly Contested, Ongoing):[Highest Priority] The situation in the Kursk region remains the primary focus. While multiple sources confirm intense fighting, the destruction of a Ukrainian "Tunguska" suggests continued Russian resistance and the presence of Ukrainian air defense assets. Ukrainian requests for drones indicate ongoing reliance on UAVs.
Air Threat (Continued, Multiple Regions): The confirmed threat of Russian air activity, guided bombs, and ballistic weapons pose an immediate threat to multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk.
Donetsk Region (Multiple Hotspots): Fighting continues at multiple locations, with confirmed special operations activity by Ukrainian forces in Toretsk.
Geopolitical Tensions (Escalating): The revocation of a Russian diplomat's accreditation by the UK, coupled with the summoning of the Russian ambassador, signifies a further deterioration in relations. Potential Russian countermeasures at sea and discussions about Turkish bases in Syria add to regional instability.
Internal Russian Issues (Continued): The sentencing of individuals involved in the "Baymak Case" demonstrates continued suppression of dissent within Russia.
Internal Ukrainian Issues (Growing Concerns): The death of a man during a military medical examination highlights potential problems with the mobilization process and raises concerns about public perception and morale.
Syria (Geopolitical): Reports discuss the possibility of Turkish military bases being placed in central Syria.
Significant Ukrainian Advances: The ISW report confirms Ukrainian forces have made progress, creating pressure on Russian border units.
Iranian Naval Advancement (Significant): The commissioning of Iran's new drone carrier represents a significant advancement in its asymmetric warfare capabilities, potentially relevant to proxy conflicts and regional power projection.
Continued Drone Warfare (High Priority): The reports of both Russian and Ukrainian drone activity, including successful counter-drone operations by Russia and the first alleged interception of a guided bomb by Ukraine, highlight the ongoing technological arms race and the central role of drones in the conflict.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Verify and Consolidate Intelligence (Kursk Region):[Highest Priority] Given the intensity of fighting and the strategic importance of the area, prioritize gathering and verifying intelligence on the situation in the Kursk region. Focus on confirming the status of Ukrainian air defense assets and Russian counteroffensive efforts.
Maintain High Air Defense Readiness (Multiple Regions): Given the confirmed threat of Russian air activity, guided bombs, and ballistic weapons, maintain high air defense readiness across frontline areas, paying attention to Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk.
Exploit Operational Successes (Southern Front): The recommendations from the previous section are still valid.
Assess Russian Reserve Interdiction Efforts (Sumy Region): Analyze the reported Russian attempts to eliminate Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region. Assess the effectiveness of these efforts and potential vulnerabilities in Ukrainian reinforcement routes.
Prepare Counteroffensive Strategies (Kursk Region): Evaluate the impact of ISW-confirmed Ukrainian advances on the overall defensive posture.
Monitor Geopolitical Developments: Closely monitor the escalating tensions between Russia and the UK, as well as developments related to potential Turkish bases in Syria. Prepare for potential consequences, including increased maritime activity and regional instability.
Address Internal Russian Issues: Continue to monitor and analyze reports of dissent and internal challenges within Russia, such as the "Baymak Case." Exploit these vulnerabilities for information operations where possible.
Address Internal Ukrainian Issues (Urgent): Investigate the circumstances surrounding the death of the man during the military medical examination. Implement measures to improve the mobilization process, ensure the health and safety of conscripts, and address public concerns. Transparency and accountability are crucial.
Enhance Drone and Counter-Drone Capabilities: Continue to invest in and develop drone and counter-drone technologies, given their central role in the conflict. Prioritize research and development of countermeasures against guided bombs.
Address Geopolitical Concerns:
Prepare talking points for a variety of scenarios in Ukraine.
Prepare a statement in response to Trump administration claims.
Syria: Prepare strategic response plan in case Turkish military bases are placed in central Syria.
The remaining recommendations from previous analyses remain valid and should be implemented concurrently with these updates.
