Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 09:00 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 08:30 UTC, February 7)
Military Operations
Kursk Region (Ukrainian Offensive, Continued Intense Fighting, Confirmed): Multiple sources, including "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" and "WarGonzo," confirm ongoing, intense fighting in the Kursk region. "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" provides video footage of a military vehicle moving through a snowy, likely residential area. The video has been tagged "Russian Army". "WarGonzo" reports that Ukrainian forces are attempting to bring in reinforcements and evacuate wounded, but are being targeted by Russian long-range fire. ISW report, cited by multiple sources, claims Ukrainian forces broke through and advanced.
Kursk Region (Ukrainian Advances, ISW Report): Ukrainian sources (RBC-Ukraine, Tsaplienko) and ISW report Ukrainian forces have conducted mechanized assaults, broken through Russian defenses, and advanced up to 5km southeast of Sudzha. The claims are the same as the ones stated earlier. Geolocated footage published on Feb 6 purportedly shows Ukrainian forces advancing southwest of Makhnovka, north and east of Cherkasskaya Konopelka, and taking control of Kolmakov and Fanaseevka. These claims conflict with earlier reports from pro-Russian sources, indicating a highly contested and fluid situation.
Kursk Region (11th Brigade, Disinformation): Alex Parker Returns claims the commander of the 11th Brigade was dismissed for falsely claiming his unit held positions near Sudzha, implying a complete absence of Ukrainian forces in the area. This, if true, casts doubt on the reliability of official Ukrainian reports regarding the situation in the Kursk region, and suggests internal issues within the Ukrainian military.
Kursk Region (Counterattack Repelled): The Russian Ministry of Defense reported a Ukrainian counterattack in the Ulanok direction.
Kharkiv Region (Air Activity, Threat Confirmed): The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity by Russian tactical aviation in the southeastern direction, with a threat of using air-launched weapons in frontline areas.
Kharkiv and Sumy Region (Guided Bombs): Ukrainian forces report the use of guided aerial bombs in the Kharkiv and Sumy region.
Sumy Region (Airstrikes, Confirmed Casualties): Russian forces conducted airstrikes using guided bombs (KABs) on the Miropil community in Sumy Oblast, resulting in at least two deaths and damage to a residential building. This confirms the continued use of air-delivered munitions and their devastating impact on civilian areas.
Kupyansk Direction (FPV Strike, Confirmed): "Basurin o glavnom" reports a Russian FPV drone strike destroying a Ukrainian pickup truck and personnel on the Kupyansk direction.
Dniprovsky Estuary (Unmanned Boat, Destroyed): "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports Russian forces discovered and destroyed a Ukrainian unmanned surface vessel (USV) carrying a large amount of explosives in the Dniprovsky estuary. This indicates continued Ukrainian attempts to use naval drones to target Russian assets, possibly in the Black Sea fleet or infrastructure.
Zaporizhzhia region (Melitopol substation attack): The attack on Melitopol's high-voltage substation has caused an electricity shortage in the region.
Donetsk Region (M113, Destroyed): "Narodnaya militsiya DNR" reports the destruction of a US-supplied M113 armored personnel carrier (APC) by Russian forces. The APC reportedly hit a mine and was then finished off by a drone. This highlights the continued use of mines as a defensive tactic and the vulnerability of armored vehicles to combined threats.
Zaporizhzhia (First Ukrainian Guided Bomb Interception): Ukrainian forces were reportedly able to shoot down a guided bomb for the first time, near Zaporizhzhia.
Donetsk (Sabotage): Russian forces report that an Omega Special Forces unit, 5th detachment, performed sabotage on a railway that supplies the Russian army.
Information Operations
Conflicting Reports on Kursk: Continued conflicting reports on the status of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. This reflects ongoing information warfare and the difficulty of obtaining accurate information in the fog of war.
Disinformation (11th Brigade): Reports of Ukrainian troops being absent from areas near Sudzha, despite claims made by the dismissed commander of the 11th Brigade.
Propaganda: Claims of a 10:1 troop advantage in the Russian favor, with the Wall Street Journal citing Ukrainian officers.
Casualties: Ukrainian officers are reported to have cited nearly all new arrivals being "50 year old and unmotivated".
Drone Use: Ukrainian forces are reportedly using drones to prevent the collapse of the front.
Propaganda (Akhmat): Alex Parker Returns reports a Chechen military figure (from "Akhmat" units) complaining about lack of official recognition by the Russian Ministry of Defense, despite claiming significant contributions on the front lines. This reveals potential internal friction and propaganda competition within Russian forces.
Geopolitical
International Criminal Court (ICC), Sanctions: Trump imposed sanctions against the ICC, which previously issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant. This signifies a significant US policy shift, potentially weakening the ICC's authority and impacting international efforts to prosecute war crimes. Colonelcassad reports that the measure is supported by only a few European countries, while Russia does not accept the jurisdiction of the ICC.
International Criminal Court (ICC), Response to Sanctions: The ICC has stated it will continue its work despite US sanctions. This indicates continued defiance of US pressure and potential for further international legal disputes.
Moldova (Coup Attempt): Former Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin claims USAID was involved in a 2009 coup attempt in Moldova. This adds to existing tensions between Russia and the West regarding influence in former Soviet republics.
Sanctions on Media: Axios claims the Trump administration is terminating all contracts with certain media.
UK Demands Apple Access to Data: UK authorities have demanded access to encrypted user data, while Apple is reluctant to comply, potentially leading to the tech company ending encrypted data storage in Britain.
France's Position on Russian Media: A Russian journalist was denied accreditation in France, labelled as an act of harassment by Maria Zakharova.
Internal Russian Developments
Detentions (Confirmed): Voenkor Kotenok confirms reports of FSB detentions in Sevastopol, Voronezh, and Rostov-on-Don, with four women arrested for allegedly planning attacks on energy infrastructure and high-ranking military officers, under the direction of Ukrainian special services. This reinforces earlier reports and highlights ongoing internal security threats within Russia.
"Undesirable" Organization: The Barents Observer's publisher has been declared "undesirable" by Russia's prosecutor general.
Khakassia Delayed Payments: Military volunteers from Khakassia claim they have not received their regional payments for signing contracts, with authorities citing funding issues.
Planned Working Time Reduction: Russia's State Duma is planning to introduce a proposal for a 36-hour work week.
Military Capabilities
NATO Reconnaissance: NATO reconnaissance aircraft are reported to be operating near the borders of Belarus and over Kaliningrad. This highlights continued intelligence gathering efforts by NATO in the region.
Iranian Drone Carrier: Multiple sources report Iran has commissioned a new drone carrier, the "Shahid Bahman Bagheri," converted from a container ship. It is reportedly capable of carrying 60 drones and 30 missile launchers, significantly enhancing Iran's naval capabilities. Images show various drones (including Mohajer-6, Ababil-3, and jet-powered prototypes) and helicopters on deck. This indicates a major advancement in Iran's asymmetric warfare capabilities, potentially relevant to proxy conflicts.
Russian Counter-Drone Capabilities: Confirmed reports of successful Russian counter-drone operations, including the destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" hexacopter before launch in the Siversk direction. This highlights the ongoing technological arms race in drone warfare.
Ukrainian Drone Capabilities: Ukrainian forces continue to utilize drones, including reports of a large drone presence along the front lines to compensate for troop shortages.
Kursk Region Offensive (Highly Contested, Unclear Outcome):[Highest Priority] The situation in the Kursk region remains the primary focus of military activity. While multiple sources confirm intense fighting, conflicting reports make it difficult to assess the precise extent of Ukrainian advances and control. The claim of a 5km breakthrough by Ukrainian forces is significant, but requires further verification. The reported destruction of Ukrainian vehicles indicates continued resistance by Russian forces.
Air Threat (Continued, Multiple Regions): The confirmed activity of Russian tactical aviation and the use of guided bombs pose an immediate threat to multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk. The confirmed airstrikes in Sumy, resulting in civilian casualties, underscore the ongoing threat to civilian populations.
Continued Naval Drone Threat: The reported destruction of a Ukrainian USV in the Dniprovsky estuary highlights the ongoing threat to Russian naval assets and infrastructure.
Geopolitical Uncertainty: Trump's sanctions against the ICC and claims of the US terminating media contracts are very significant. The ICC's defiance of US sanctions, the UK's demand for access to Apple user data, and France's denial of accreditation to Russian journalists all indicate a further fracturing of international relations and potential for escalating information warfare.
Internal Security: The FSB detentions and "Undesirable" Organization declaration signal ongoing internal security challenges within Russia.
Ukrainian Troop Shortages: The Wall Street Journal report indicates significant Ukrainian troop shortages and challenges in recruitment.
Significant Ukrainian Advances: The ISW report confirms Ukrainian forces have made progress, creating pressure on Russian border units.
Internal Issues in the Ukrainian Military: Reports of false information from brigade commanders highlight potential issues within the Ukrainian military.
Military Aid: Reports of needing help for repairs on medical vehicles.
Iranian Naval Advancement (Significant): The commissioning of Iran's new drone carrier represents a significant advancement in its asymmetric warfare capabilities, potentially relevant to proxy conflicts and regional power projection.
Continued Drone Warfare (High Priority): The reports of both Russian and Ukrainian drone activity, including successful counter-drone operations by Russia and the first alleged interception of a guided bomb by Ukraine, highlight the ongoing technological arms race and the central role of drones in the conflict.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Verify and Consolidate Intelligence (Kursk Region):[Highest Priority] Given conflicting reports, prioritize gathering and verifying intelligence on the situation in the Kursk region. Deploy additional reconnaissance assets, including drones and human intelligence, to establish a clear picture of the battlefield.
Maintain High Air Defense Readiness (Multiple Regions): Given the confirmed threat of Russian air activity and guided bombs, maintain high air defense readiness across frontline areas, particularly in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk regions. Prioritize protection of civilian areas in light of the confirmed airstrikes in Sumy.
Enhance Naval Defenses: Increase vigilance and deploy countermeasures against potential USV attacks, particularly in areas near critical infrastructure and naval bases.
Address Internal Security Threats (Russia): Continue counterintelligence operations to identify and neutralize potential threats from Ukrainian-linked agents within Russia.
Exploit Operational Successes (Southern Front): The recommendations from the previous section are still valid.
Verify Claims: Independently verify claims of the 11th Brigade Commander.
Assess Vulnerabilities: Assess frontline areas for potential Ukrainian troop shortages.
Prepare Counteroffensive Strategies (Kursk Region): Evaluate the impact of ISW-confirmed Ukrainian advances on the overall defensive posture.
Aid Coordination: Support the call for funding to repair military vehicles.
Monitor Iranian Naval Activity: Given Iran's new drone carrier, closely monitor its movements and activities, and assess its potential impact on regional security.
Enhance Drone and Counter-Drone Capabilities: Continue to invest in and develop drone and counter-drone technologies, given their central role in the conflict. Prioritize research and development of countermeasures against guided bombs.
Address Internal Friction (Russian Forces): Analyze the implications of reported tensions between Chechen units ("Akhmat") and the Russian Ministry of Defense. This could present an opportunity for information operations or exploit potential vulnerabilities.
Information Warfare Response: Develop strategies to counter disinformation and propaganda, particularly related to internal military issues (Ukrainian and Russian) and civilian casualties.
The remaining recommendations from previous analyses remain valid and should be implemented concurrently with these updates.
