Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 08:30 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 08:00 UTC, February 7)
Military Operations
Kursk Region (Ukrainian Offensive, Continued Intense Fighting, Confirmed): Multiple sources, including "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" and "WarGonzo," confirm ongoing, intense fighting in the Kursk region. "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" provides video footage of a military vehicle moving through a snowy, likely residential area. The video has been tagged "Russian Army". "WarGonzo" reports that Ukrainian forces are attempting to bring in reinforcements and evacuate wounded, but are being targeted by Russian long-range fire. ISW report, cited by multiple sources, claims Ukrainian forces broke through and advanced.
Kursk Region (Ukrainian Advances, ISW Report): Ukrainian sources (RBC-Ukraine, Tsaplienko) and ISW report Ukrainian forces have conducted mechanized assaults, broken through Russian defenses, and advanced up to 5km southeast of Sudzha. The claims are the same as the ones stated earlier. Geolocated footage published on Feb 6 purportedly shows Ukrainian forces advancing southwest of Makhnovka, north and east of Cherkasskaya Konopelka, and taking control of Kolmakov and Fanaseevka. These claims conflict with earlier reports from pro-Russian sources, indicating a highly contested and fluid situation.
Kursk Region (11th Brigade, Disinformation): Alex Parker Returns claims the commander of the 11th Brigade was dismissed for falsely claiming his unit held positions near Sudzha, implying a complete absence of Ukrainian forces in the area. This, if true, casts doubt on the reliability of official Ukrainian reports regarding the situation in the Kursk region, and suggests internal issues within the Ukrainian military.
Kursk Region (Counterattack Repelled): The Russian Ministry of Defense reported a Ukrainian counterattack in the Ulanok direction.
Kharkiv Region (Air Activity, Threat Confirmed): The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity by Russian tactical aviation in the southeastern direction, with a threat of using air-launched weapons in frontline areas.
Kharkiv and Sumy Region (Guided Bombs): Ukrainian forces report the use of guided aerial bombs in the Kharkiv and Sumy region.
Kupyansk Direction (FPV Strike, Confirmed): "Basurin o glavnom" reports a Russian FPV drone strike destroying a Ukrainian pickup truck and personnel on the Kupyansk direction.
Dniprovsky Estuary (Unmanned Boat, Destroyed): "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports Russian forces discovered and destroyed a Ukrainian unmanned surface vessel (USV) carrying a large amount of explosives in the Dniprovsky estuary. This indicates continued Ukrainian attempts to use naval drones to target Russian assets, possibly in the Black Sea fleet or infrastructure.
Donetsk Region (M113, Destroyed): "Narodnaya militsiya DNR" reports the destruction of a US-supplied M113 armored personnel carrier (APC) by Russian forces. The APC reportedly hit a mine and was then finished off by a drone. This highlights the continued use of mines as a defensive tactic and the vulnerability of armored vehicles to combined threats.
Information Operations
Conflicting Reports on Kursk: Continued conflicting reports on the status of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. This reflects ongoing information warfare and the difficulty of obtaining accurate information in the fog of war.
Disinformation (11th Brigade): Reports of Ukrainian troops being absent from areas near Sudzha, despite claims made by the dismissed commander of the 11th Brigade.
Propaganda: Claims of a 10:1 troop advantage in the Russian favor, with the Wall Street Journal citing Ukrainian officers.
Casualties: Ukrainian officers are reported to have cited nearly all new arrivals being "50 year old and unmotivated".
Drone Use: Ukrainian forces are reportedly using drones to prevent the collapse of the front.
Geopolitical
International Criminal Court (ICC), Sanctions: Trump imposed sanctions against the ICC, which previously issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant. This signifies a significant US policy shift, potentially weakening the ICC's authority and impacting international efforts to prosecute war crimes. Colonelcassad reports that the measure is supported by only a few European countries, while Russia does not accept the jurisdiction of the ICC.
Moldova (Coup Attempt): Former Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin claims USAID was involved in a 2009 coup attempt in Moldova. This adds to existing tensions between Russia and the West regarding influence in former Soviet republics.
Sanctions on Media: Axios claims the Trump administration is terminating all contracts with certain media.
Internal Russian Developments
Detentions (Confirmed): Voenkor Kotenok confirms reports of FSB detentions in Sevastopol, Voronezh, and Rostov-on-Don, with four women arrested for allegedly planning attacks on energy infrastructure and high-ranking military officers, under the direction of Ukrainian special services. This reinforces earlier reports and highlights ongoing internal security threats within Russia.
"Undesirable" Organization: The Barents Observer's publisher has been declared "undesirable" by Russia's prosecutor general.
Kursk Region Offensive (Highly Contested, Unclear Outcome):[Highest Priority] The situation in the Kursk region remains the primary focus of military activity. While multiple sources confirm intense fighting, conflicting reports make it difficult to assess the precise extent of Ukrainian advances and control. The claim of a 5km breakthrough by Ukrainian forces is significant, but requires further verification. The reported destruction of Ukrainian vehicles indicates continued resistance by Russian forces.
Air Threat (Continued, Multiple Regions): The confirmed activity of Russian tactical aviation and the use of guided bombs pose an immediate threat to multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk.
Continued Naval Drone Threat: The reported destruction of a Ukrainian USV in the Dniprovsky estuary highlights the ongoing threat to Russian naval assets and infrastructure.
Geopolitical Uncertainty: Trump's sanctions against the ICC and claims of the US terminating media contracts are very significant.
Internal Security: The FSB detentions and "Undesirable" Organization declaration signal ongoing internal security challenges within Russia.
Ukrainian Troop Shortages: The Wall Street Journal report indicates significant Ukrainian troop shortages and challenges in recruitment.
Significant Ukrainian Advances: The ISW report confirms Ukrainian forces have made progress, creating pressure on Russian border units.
Internal Issues in the Ukrainian Military: Reports of false information from brigade commanders highlight potential issues within the Ukrainian military.
Military Aid: Reports of needing help for repairs on medical vehicles.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Verify and Consolidate Intelligence (Kursk Region):[Highest Priority] Given conflicting reports, prioritize gathering and verifying intelligence on the situation in the Kursk region. Deploy additional reconnaissance assets, including drones and human intelligence, to establish a clear picture of the battlefield.
Maintain High Air Defense Readiness (Multiple Regions): Given the confirmed threat of Russian air activity and guided bombs, maintain high air defense readiness across frontline areas, particularly in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk regions.
Enhance Naval Defenses: Increase vigilance and deploy countermeasures against potential USV attacks, particularly in areas near critical infrastructure and naval bases.
Address Internal Security Threats (Russia): Continue counterintelligence operations to identify and neutralize potential threats from Ukrainian-linked agents within Russia.
Exploit Operational Successes (Southern Front): The recommendations from the previous section are still valid.
Verify Claims: Independently verify claims of the 11th Brigade Commander.
Assess Vulnerabilities: Assess frontline areas for potential Ukrainian troop shortages.
Prepare Counteroffensive Strategies (Kursk Region): Evaluate the impact of ISW-confirmed Ukrainian advances on the overall defensive posture.
Aid Coordination: Support the call for funding to repair military vehicles.
The remaining recommendations from previous analyses remain valid and should be implemented concurrently with these updates.
