Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 08:00 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 07:30 UTC, February 7)
Military Operations
Kursk Region (Continued Ukrainian Activity, Confirmed): Voenkor Kotenok reports that overnight, Ukrainian forces continued transferring personnel and equipment, including heavy equipment, from the Sumy region towards Sudzha. New breakthrough attempts are likely soon, as Ukrainian command seeks a demonstrative offensive "picture." This confirms earlier reports and suggests an imminent offensive. "Dva Mayora" reports the discovery of three killed Ukrainian soldiers from a failed incursion this morning. This provides further evidence of recent fighting in the area. Colonelcassad reports Ukrainian forces sent two armored vehicles from Sudzha toward Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseevski, attempting to collect remaining personnel. Russian forces have reportedly destroyed some of this equipment, though precise numbers are unknown. The area is undergoing continued clearing operations by Russian forces. This indicates continued activity, but with potential Ukrainian losses.
Kursk Region (Renewed Attacks, Reported): "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports renewed Ukrainian attacks in the Kursk region this morning, targeting areas near Ulanok and involving attempts to evacuate personnel. Russian forces are reportedly using drone strikes against Ukrainian infantry. The attacks are described as following the same routes as previous attempts. This indicates a persistence in Ukrainian efforts despite previous failures. The source suggests the Ukrainian personnel involved are poorly trained.
Kharkiv Region (Airstrike Threat, Confirmed): The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity by Russian tactical aviation in the northeastern direction, threatening the use of air-launched weapons in frontline areas.
Kharkiv Region (Drone Strikes, Reported): Ukrainian forces are reportedly using drone strikes against Russian forces, with claims of successful strikes by the 3rd Assault Brigade's aerial reconnaissance unit. This highlights the continued use of drone warfare.
Southern Front (Artillery and Drone Strikes, Confirmed): The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report continued Russian fire on positions and frontline settlements in Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kherson regions, with nearly 280 artillery strikes recorded. Russia conducted 440 FPV drone strikes and dropped over 200 fragmentation munitions. Airstrikes with guided bombs and unguided rockets targeted settlements in Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces are attempting rotations closer to the contact line in the Huliaipilske and Orikhiv directions, conducting engineering and aerial reconnaissance. Ukrainian forces report destroying 49 Russian personnel, a TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric launcher, an ARK-1 "Rys" artillery radar, 4 artillery systems, 4 mortars, 18 vehicles, 5 Shahed-136 drones, 4 reconnaissance drones, a quad bike, motorcycles, 4 boats, 7 drone control antennas, 2 communication antennas, 4 Starlink terminals and 2 antennas, and 5 generators. 33 dugouts/shelters, 5 observation posts, a drone launch site, and an ammunition supply point were also destroyed.
Kremenna-Yampolivka Area (FPV Drone Strike, Confirmed): A Russian FPV drone successfully struck a Ukrainian BMP infantry fighting vehicle south of Yampolivka. This demonstrates the ongoing use and effectiveness of FPV drones in targeting armored vehicles.
Kupyansk Direction, Topoli (Advance, Reported): Russian forces have advanced near Urazovo, taking a new area near Topoli (between Urazovo and Dvorichnoye). The advance is up to 1km deep and 3km wide.
Zaporizhzhia Region, Kamyanske (Counterattack Repelled): TASS reports that Russian forces have repelled a Ukrainian counterattack in the vicinity of Kamyanske in the Zaporizhzhia region. Russian forces have reportedly destroyed up to three Ukrainian tanks and up to a company of infantry.*
Russian Internal Developments
FSB Detentions (Arrests Confirmed): The FSB confirmed the arrest of women in Rostov-on-Don, Voronezh and Sevastopol accused of preparing terrorist attacks, and one in Sevastopol. The women allegedly planned attacks against high-ranking Russian military personnel and energy infrastructure, under the direction of Ukrainian special services. One woman had reportedly joined a Russian military unit (BARS) as part of her mission. This highlights ongoing internal security threats and alleged Ukrainian espionage activities within Russia. "Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny", "Басурин о главном" and "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" also report that the FSB has prevented several terrorist attacks. Four women have been detained.
Syrian Bases (Possible Continuation, Reported): The head of the Defense Ministry of the Syrian transitional government reportedly stated that Syria will maintain Russian military bases on its territory if it benefits Damascus.
Traffic Jam (Irkutsk): Truck drivers remain stuck.
Economic Growth: Gleb Nikitin reports industry growth.
Information Operations
Recruitment: There is a recruitment drive in Ukraine.
Loss of life: Ukraine is mourning the loss of life.
Propaganda: Ukrainian forces show the capture of soldiers in the 155th brigade.
War End: The war will end in a few months, and Ukraine should surrender, according to some Telegram channels.
Morale: Soldiers are not willing to fight.
Geopolitical
Ukraine-US Direct Involvement: Mykhailo Podolyak admitted that Kyiv would like to provoke a direct military conflict between the USA and Russia.
Ukraine-US-Russia Talks: The first official meeting between representatives of Kyiv and Keith Kellogg, the US special representative for Ukraine, was held. Details of the conversation were not disclosed. This indicates ongoing, high-level diplomatic efforts, potentially related to a future settlement of the conflict.
Trump ready to intensify sanctions.
IAEA-Russia: The IAEA General Director Grossi and the head of Rosatom Likhachev met in Moscow.
Israel-US: Netanyahu stated that Trump's decree providing for the imposition of sanctions against the ICC would protect the sovereignty of Israel and the US and would protect both countries from "judicial wars".
Anticipated Ukrainian Offensive (Kursk Region):[Imminent Threat] The reported buildup of Ukrainian forces, coupled with reports of new attacks this morning, suggests an imminent and potentially significant offensive in the Kursk region. The reported destruction of Ukrainian vehicles and use of drones indicates active fighting.
Continued Aerial Threats (Kharkiv Region): The reported activity of Russian tactical aviation continues to pose an immediate threat to frontline areas.
Sustained Strikes and Rotations (Southern Front): The Southern Defense Forces report confirms ongoing intense Russian artillery and drone attacks, and efforts to rotate troops. The destruction of the TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" is a significant Ukrainian success.
Arrests and Regional Instability: The confirmation of arrests of alleged Ukrainian agents in multiple Russian cities indicates an ongoing internal security threat and potential for further escalation.
Power Outages (Expanded Scope): Emergency power outages have been extended to Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and parts of Cherkasy regions, due to Russian missile and drone attacks.
Drone Shootdowns (Reported): The Ukrainian Air Force reports shooting down 81 of 112 Russian drones. "ASTRA" reports the same.
Tightening Sanctions (Confirmed): Trump is planning to intensify sanctions.
Logistical Concerns: Truck drivers are stuck in Irkutsk.
Drone Testing (Confirmed): China has tested drones.
Diplomatic Contact: Ukraine is talking with the US.
Troop Casualties (Reported): Ukrainian forces have been eliminated.
Propaganda: Ukraine continues to demonize Russia.
Claims of Military Superiority: Russian sources continue to claim military superiority and personnel shortages in Ukrainian forces.
Kursk Direction Shift (Reported): TASS reports that Ukrainian forces are redeploying some units from Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), Dobropolye, and Slavyansk areas to the Kursk direction. This suggests a potential strategic shift by Ukrainian forces, perhaps to relieve pressure on other fronts or create a new area of operations.
Kamyanske Counterattack (Reported): Russian forces repelling a Ukrainian counterattack, with destruction of equipment. Indicates Ukrainian offensive efforts in this area.
Troop Redeployment (Reported, Unverified): Claims of Ukrainian forces moving troops from the Donetsk region to the Kursk direction. This needs independent verification but, if true, could significantly shift the balance of forces.
Zelensky to Munich (Confirmed): President Zelensky will lead the Ukrainian delegation to the Munich Security Conference, where discussions on ending the war and achieving lasting peace will take place. This is a major diplomatic event where future strategies and international support will be discussed.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
Prepare for Imminent Offensive (Kursk Region):[Highest Priority] Given reports of a Ukrainian buildup and renewed attacks, prioritize strengthening defenses and preparing for a large-scale offensive. Deploy additional reconnaissance assets to monitor troop movements and identify attack vectors. Prepare rapid response forces to counter breakthroughs.
Counter Airstrike Threat (Kharkiv Region): Maintain high air defense readiness in the Kharkiv region to counter reported Russian tactical aviation activity.
Exploit Operational Successes (Southern Front): Continue targeting Russian artillery, drone launch sites, and command and control nodes. Prioritize the destruction of high-value targets.
Secure Energy Infrastructure (Multiple Regions): Enhance protection of energy infrastructure in regions experiencing power outages. Prioritize repairs and consider deploying mobile power units.
Monitor for Potential Incursions: Pay attention.
Address Strikes: Support affected areas.
Verify the Claims: Gather intelligence.
Address Logistics: The disruption needs to be fixed.
Verify Troop Redeployment (Kursk Direction):[High Priority] Independently verify claims of Ukrainian troop redeployment from the Donetsk region to the Kursk direction. This could significantly alter the operational situation.
Prepare for Potential Shift in Focus (Munich): Closely monitor the Munich Security Conference for announcements regarding international support, potential peace negotiations, and changes in strategic direction.
The remaining recommendations from previous analyses remain valid and should be implemented concurrently with these updates.
