Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 04:30 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 04:00 UTC, February 7)

Military Operations

• Kursk Region (Significant Ukrainian Incursion, Confirmed): [No significant change from the previous assessment. The dismissal of the commander of the 11th Brigade is confirmed.] The situation remains the most critical development.
• Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) Direction (Ongoing Russian Attacks): [No significant change from the previous assessment.]
• Konstantinopol Direction (Russian Advance, Confirmed): [No significant change from the previous assessment.]
• North of Velikaya (Bolshaya) Novoselka (Ongoing Fighting): [No significant change from the previous assessment.]
• Zaporozhye Region (Confirmed Russian Artillery Strikes): The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that artillery from the "Dnepr" group destroyed Ukrainian dugouts. Air raid sirens were heard in the region, but were soon called off. [No significant change from the previous assessment.]
• Chasiv Yar (Intense Russian Activity, Confirmed): Multiple reports from "Dnevnik Desantnika" detail Russian Airborne Forces (98th Division, 217th Regiment) activity around Chasiv Yar, including:
  • Demining operations using UAVs.
  • Destruction of a Ukrainian "Leleka-100" UAV with a "Igla-S" MANPADS.
  • Forced landing of a Ukrainian Mavic drone.
  • BM-21 "Grad" MLRS strikes on Ukrainian strongpoints. This indicates a high concentration of Russian forces and intense combat operations around Chasiv Yar, a key strategic point.
• Pokrovsk Russian forces destroyed a Bradley in a mine trap. The Ukrainians have reportedly mined the center of the city.
• Makiivka (Luhansk Region) (Reported Presence of Foreign Mercenaries): Andrei Marochko reports the presence of mercenaries speaking English, Spanish, Georgian, and Portuguese near Makiivka. This reinforces the ongoing narrative of international involvement and the presence of foreign fighters on the Ukrainian side.
• Black Sea (Russian Naval Presence): Both Ukrainian and Russian sources report 1 Russian ship in the Black Sea carrying up to 4 "Kalibr" missiles. The Ukrainian Navy reports 6 Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea, 2 of which are "Kalibr" carriers with a potential salvo of 22 missiles. This represents a potential threat of missile strikes, particularly from the Mediterranean.
• Kharkiv Region (Extensive Destruction): Ganchev, a Russian official, reports "colossal" destruction in "liberated" villages in the Kharkiv region. This confirms the heavy impact of the conflict in this area, previously reported.

Geopolitical Developments

• US Congress to Introduce Bill Banning DeepSeek (Confirmed): [No significant change from the previous assessment.]
• Trump Imposes Sanctions on ICC: [No significant change from the previous assessment.]
• Volgograd Region, Russia. The governor wants to ban abortions in the region.

Russian Internal Developments

• Fraud Case (Khakassia Region): A report from the Khabarovsk Krai Police details a fraud case involving a deceptive electricity meter replacement scheme. This is not directly related to military operations, but highlights internal security issues and potential vulnerabilities.
• Fundraising Appeal (Rybar): The "Rybar" analytical channel is soliciting donations to support its work, claiming to provide valuable information to the Russian military and government. This is a common practice among pro-Russian media outlets, highlighting the role of information warfare and the reliance on public support.

Ukrainian Claims & Actions

• Pokrovsk (Alleged Destruction of Foreign Mercenaries): [No significant change from the previous assessment.]
• Air raid alarm Ukraine began to spread the air raid alarm.

Overall Situation Assessment (Changes Highlighted)

The most significant development remains the confirmed Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region. The new information highlights several key changes:

1. Intensified Fighting Around Chasiv Yar: The detailed reports of Russian Airborne Forces activity indicate a major focus on this area, suggesting an ongoing offensive or preparation for one.
2. Continued Mercenary Presence (Makiivka): The reported presence of foreign fighters speaking multiple languages reinforces the international dimension of the conflict.
3. Missile Strike Threat (Black and Mediterranean Seas): The confirmed presence of Russian "Kalibr" missile carriers in both seas poses a persistent threat, with a particularly high missile capacity in the Mediterranean.
4. Extensive Destruction (Kharkiv Region): The confirmation of "colossal" destruction highlights the human and material cost of the conflict.
5. Air raid alarms: Ukraine began to implement them.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

1. Prioritize Defense and Counter-Offensive Planning (Kursk Region): [No change from the previous assessment. This remains the top priority.]
2. Maintain Pressure on Existing Fronts (Pokrovsk, Konstantinopol, Chasiv Yar): [Reinforce the emphasis on Chasiv Yar, given the reported intensity of Russian operations.] Exploit any breakthroughs and continue efforts to disrupt Ukrainian defenses.
3. Verify Mercenary Claims (Pokrovsk, Makiivka): Gather intelligence to confirm or refute the reported presence and elimination of foreign mercenaries. Assess the impact on Ukrainian capabilities and morale.
4. Monitor and Prepare for Missile Strikes (Black and Mediterranean Seas): [Increase emphasis on monitoring the Mediterranean, given the higher reported missile capacity.] Maintain high readiness of air defense systems and be prepared to respond to missile attacks.
5. Assess and Address Destruction (Kharkiv Region): Evaluate the extent of damage and prioritize efforts to restore critical infrastructure and provide humanitarian assistance where possible.
6. Maintain high alert and prepare for potential future attacks: [Reinforce the emphasis on the Air raid alarm.] Focus on reinforcing defenses and developing counter-offensive strategies.
7. Investigate the failures of command: Conduct a thorough investigation into the errors.
8. Gather intelligence: Monitor for potential recruitment activities, assess infiltration risks, and ensure compliance.
9. Maintain high alert in Kursk: Be prepared.
10. Monitor US-China Tech Tensions: Assess the potential implications of the DeepSeek ban and other technology-related restrictions on military capabilities and intelligence gathering.
11. Monitor US-ICC Tensions: Assess the potential implications.
12. Address potential consequences: Respond to potential ramifications.
13. Monitor Russia's Propaganda: Pay attention to the developments on the matter.
14. Monitor the region of Volgograd: Be prepared.