Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 7, 2025, 04:00 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 03:30 UTC, February 7)

Military Operations

• Kursk Region (Significant Ukrainian Incursion, Confirmed): "Dva Mayora" reports that Ukrainian forces, with up to two mechanized battalions supported by tanks and armored vehicles, launched eight waves of attacks towards Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok. They reportedly penetrated Russian defenses up to 5 km, but failed to reach Ulanok. Ukrainian forces were observed in Fanaseevka and Cherkasskaya Konopelka during the day, dispersing to the outskirts and nearby forests by nightfall. There are indications of preparations for further attacks. This situation has led to renewed fighting near Makhnovka (close to Sudzha). This represents a significant Ukrainian offensive operation into Russian territory, demonstrating a willingness to expand the conflict beyond the established front lines. The depth of the penetration is concerning, even if the main objective was not achieved. The commander of the 11th Brigade has been dismissed.
• Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) Direction (Ongoing Russian Attacks): Russian forces are conducting battles near Andreevka, Sribnoe, Nadeevka, Udachnoe, Kotlino, Lysovka, Yelizavetovka, and Vodyanoe Vtoroe. Ukrainian reserves are being deployed, slowing the Russian advance. This indicates continued pressure on Ukrainian defenses in this area, but also Ukrainian resistance.
• Konstantinopol Direction (Russian Advance, Confirmed): Russian forces have advanced in the northwestern part of Dachnoe, with footage of a flag being raised over a school building. Fighting is also reported on the southeastern outskirts. This signifies a gradual but steady Russian advance in this area.
• North of Velikaya (Bolshaya) Novoselka (Ongoing Fighting): Battles are ongoing near Rovnopol, Novy Komar, and Razdolnoye. This suggests continued activity and contested territory in this sector.
• Zaporozhye Region (Confirmed Russian Artillery Strikes): The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that artillery from the "Dnepr" group destroyed Ukrainian dugouts. This is a standard tactical development, indicating ongoing artillery duels in this region.

Geopolitical Developments

• US Congress to Introduce Bill Banning DeepSeek (Confirmed): US Congressmen will introduce a bill banning the DeepSeek technology on government devices, citing concerns about its links to the Chinese Communist Party and potential security risks. While not directly related to the military situation in Ukraine, this highlights the broader context of growing US-China tensions and concerns about technology espionage.
• Trump Imposes Sanctions on ICC: Trump has introduced financial and visa sanctions, aiming to penalize those involved in investigations or actions against US citizens or their allies, including Israel.

Russian Internal Developments

• None of significance beyond those already reported.

Ukrainian Claims & Actions

• Pokrovsk (Alleged Destruction of Foreign Mercenaries): "Operation Z" claims that Russian forces destroyed a special group of foreign mercenaries near Pokrovsk, obtaining materials identifying them as primarily from the US, Colombia, Brazil, Germany, and Georgia. This is a claim that requires verification, but if true, it would highlight the continued presence and activity of foreign fighters in Ukraine.

Overall Situation Assessment (Changes Highlighted)

The most significant development is the confirmed Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region, marking a major escalation and a shift in the conflict's dynamics.

1. Major Ukrainian Offensive (Kursk Region): The confirmed incursion, with a penetration depth of up to 5 km, is a highly significant development. This demonstrates Ukrainian capability and willingness to attack Russian territory directly. The dismissal of the Russian brigade commander underscores the seriousness of the situation.
2. Continued Fighting on Multiple Fronts: Russian forces continue to press their attacks in the Pokrovsk and Konstantinopol directions, while fighting continues north of Velikaya Novoselka. This highlights the ongoing intensity of the conflict across multiple sectors.
3. Artillery Duels Continue (Zaporozhye): The confirmed Russian artillery strikes are a tactical development, indicative of the ongoing artillery exchanges.
4. Alleged Mercenary Elimination (Pokrovsk): The claim of destroying a foreign mercenary group, if confirmed, would reinforce the narrative of international involvement in the conflict.
5. US-China Tech Tensions: The proposed ban on DeepSeek, though not directly related to Ukraine, is a relevant geopolitical development that underscores the broader context of great power competition.
6. Trump Sanctions the ICC: The imposed sanctions are an action of diplomatic and geopolitical importance.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

1. Prioritize Defense and Counter-Offensive Planning (Kursk Region): The Ukrainian incursion demands immediate attention. Reinforce defenses in the area, prepare for potential further attacks, and develop counter-offensive plans to push back Ukrainian forces and secure the border. This is now a top priority.
2. Maintain Pressure on Existing Fronts (Pokrovsk, Konstantinopol): Continue operations to exploit any weaknesses in Ukrainian defenses, but be prepared to adjust priorities based on the situation in the Kursk region.
3. Verify Mercenary Claims (Pokrovsk): Gather intelligence to confirm or refute the reported elimination of foreign mercenaries. If confirmed, assess the impact on Ukrainian capabilities and morale.
4. Maintain high alert and prepare for potential future attacks Focus on reinforcing defenses and developing counter-offensive strategies.
5. Investigate the failures of command: Conduct a thorough investigation into the errors.
6. Gather intelligence Monitor for potential recruitment activities, assess infiltration risks, and ensure compliance.
7. Maintain high alert in Kursk Be prepared.
8. Monitor US-China Tech Tensions: Assess the potential implications of the DeepSeek ban and other technology-related restrictions on military capabilities and intelligence gathering.
9. Monitor US-ICC Tensions: Assess the potential implications.
10. Address potential consequences Respond to potential ramifications.
11. Monitor Russia's Propaganda Pay attention to the developments on the matter.