Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 22:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 22:08 UTC)

Drone Warfare: Intensified and Widespread Activity

• Continued Widespread Attacks (Confirmed, Ongoing): Reports persist of extensive drone activity across multiple regions. This reinforces the assessment of a sustained and widespread Russian drone offensive.
• Specific Drone Movements (Reported): "Nikolaevsky Vanyok" provides further updates (22:15 UTC):
  • 1 drone from Mykolaiv region heading into Odesa region.
  • 2 drones south of Smila, heading west.
  • 1 drone approaching Kropyvnytskyi.
  • 1 drone in the Krasnohrad district of Kharkiv region.
  • 1 drone south of Kharkiv, heading west.
  • 2 drones north of Zhytomyr, heading west.
  • 4 drones in the north of Kyiv region, heading west.
  • 3 drones from Chernihiv region heading into Kyiv region.
  • 3 drones from Sumy region heading into Chernihiv region.
  • 1 drone circling in the north of Poltava region.
  • 2 drones in the Pereyaslav region.
• Shahed Drone Toward Odessa: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a "Shahed" drone moving from Mykolaiv region towards the Odesa region.
• Russian Drone Attacks: A video from Colonelcassad indicates that the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade are actively targeting Ukrainian vehicles and equipment.

Kursk Region: Ukrainian Counteroffensive, Contested Control

• Ukrainian Counteroffensive near Ulanok (Reported): "Dva Mayora" reports on a Ukrainian counteroffensive near Ulanok, Kursk region (22:17 UTC). Key points:
  • Ukrainian forces attacked Russian positions near Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Fanaseevka, and Ulanok.
  • Several armored groups broke through Russian defenses in some areas.
  • Ukrainian forces are reportedly about 1.3 km from Ulanok, stopped in wooded areas.
  • Ukrainian forces moved through Fanaseevka and Cherkasskaya Konopelka during the day, but did not establish full control.
  • Ukrainian forces suffered losses from drones, artillery, and aviation.
  • By the end of the day, Ukrainian forces were dispersed in the outskirts and nearby wooded areas.
• Contested Control: The description provided by "Dva Mayora" and the map associated with it confirm that control of Ulanok is still contested.

Geopolitical Developments:

• US Task Force Disbanded (Reported): "Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" reports that Trump disbanded the task force targeting Russian oligarchs, citing a shift in focus and funding towards combating drug cartels (22:19 UTC). The Guardian is cited as the source.
• US Foreign Aid (Reported): US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US will continue to provide foreign aid despite the liquidation of USAID (22:19 UTC).
• Sanctions Against ICC (Reported): Donald Trump signed a decree imposing sanctions against the International Criminal Court (ICC) (22:24 UTC).
• Internal Russian Issues (Alleged): "Dva Mayora" expresses concerns about military leadership and decisions, citing issues in Novoyehorivka, the Siversk direction, and the Kursk region. They claim the 810th Sevastopol Marine Brigade is defending the Kursk region instead of conducting an amphibious landing on Odesa, attributing this to poor planning (22:36 UTC).

Other:

• Russian Ministry of Transport: Supports increasing the flight ban for unruly passengers from one to three years.
• New Head of Roscosmos: Dmitry Bakanov will be presented to the leadership of the state corporation today.
• Propaganda: An image shared by Alex Parker Returns discusses panic among soldiers, indicating low morale.

Overall Situation Assessment

The situation remains highly dynamic, with a few CRITICAL developments:

1. Intensified Russian Drone Offensive: The drone attacks are continuing and appear to be intensifying, with multiple reports of drone movements across a wide area of Ukraine. This poses a severe and immediate threat to Ukrainian infrastructure, military assets, and civilian populations.
2. Ukrainian Counteroffensive in Kursk Region: The reported Ukrainian counteroffensive near Ulanok, Kursk region, represents a significant escalation and a potential shift in the conflict's dynamics. While Ukrainian forces have reportedly made some gains, they have not established full control of key settlements and have suffered losses. This area is now a major focal point of the conflict.
3. US Policy Shifts: The reported disbanding of the task force targeting Russian oligarchs and the sanctions against the ICC signal potential shifts in US policy, which could have long-term implications for the conflict and international relations.
4. Concerns about Russian Military Leadership: The comments from "Dva Mayora" raise concerns about the effectiveness of Russian military leadership and decision-making, potentially indicating internal weaknesses and vulnerabilities.
5. Continued Fighting in Donetsk Region: While not explicitly mentioned in the latest updates, the previous reports of intense fighting in the Pokrovsk direction (Donetsk region) remain relevant. This area continues to be a zone of significant military activity.

The combination of the widespread drone offensive and the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region indicates a highly volatile and dangerous situation. The potential for further escalation and miscalculation is high.