Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 22:08 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 21:38 UTC)
Kyiv Region: Drone Threat Continues, Air Defenses Active
Air Defenses Active (Confirmed, Ongoing): Reports continue to confirm active air defense operations in Kyiv and surrounding areas, specifically targeting drones. This reinforces the ongoing aerial threat. Multiple drones were reported flying over Kyiv.
Drone Threat Continues (Confirmed, Ongoing): The Ukrainian Air Force reports multiple drone groups moving from various directions:
From Chernihiv region, heading west.
Several groups from Kyiv region, heading towards Zhytomyr region.
On the border of Poltava and Chernihiv regions, heading towards Kyiv region.
Several groups heading towards Kharkiv/Kharkiv region.
From Poltava region towards Kharkiv region.
In Kirovohrad region, heading west.
Several drones are in the suburbs of Kharkiv.
NEW: New groups of drones have been reported heading from the north, through Sumy region towards Chernihiv region. (22:03 UTC)
5 drones are in the north of the Kyiv region, heading west.
2 Drones flew past Fastiv, heading towards/through Zhytomyr.
2 Drones are in the Pereyaslav region.
4 drones are flying through the Chernihiv region towards the Kyiv region.
Air Raid Alerts: An air raid alert map shows multiple regions under alert, which is consistent with the drone reports.
Conflicting Reports (Confirmed, Ongoing): The situation remains highly contested and unclear, with contradictory reports from various sources.
Potential Russian Weaknesses (Reported): Alex Parker Returns claims that some Russian brigades supposedly holding positions near Sudzha "existed only on paper" and were never actually present. This, if true, represents a significant failure of Russian command and control, and a major vulnerability exploited by Ukrainian forces. This is accompanied by a derogatory comparison of former Minister of Defense Shoigu and current Minister Belousov.
NEW: A special forces group, "Aida", part of "Akhmat", has reportedly hit a concentration of infantry in Cherkasskoe Porechnoe.
Donetsk Region: No Major Changes Reported, Situation Remains Tense
No Significant Changes: No major changes in territorial control or significant engagements have been reported in the last 30 minutes, though fighting continues at previous locations.
Pokrovsk Direction is the Hottest: The Ukrainian General Staff confirms that the Pokrovsk direction remains the area with the most intense fighting, with 28 attempts by Russian forces to break through Ukrainian defenses near various settlements. Three engagements are ongoing. Novooleksandrivka was hit by two guided bombs. 89 clashes have been recorded on the front.
Kharkiv Region: Drone Attacks Ongoing
Widespread Drone Attacks (Confirmed, Ongoing): The Ukrainian Air Force updates confirm continued drone activity across multiple regions, including Kyiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, and Kirovohrad. This represents a sustained and widespread Russian drone offensive.
Ukrainian Drone Acquisitions (Reported): STERNENKO reports the purchase of 420 drones (totaling 143,312 FPV drones) for 8.6 million hryvnias. This demonstrates continued Ukrainian efforts to bolster their drone capabilities.
Air Defense Work: Air defenses are active in Kharkiv.
NEW: Multiple drones are approaching Kharkiv.
Drone Warfare: Widespread Activity, Ukrainian Acquisitions, Specific Drone Movements
Widespread Drone Attacks (Confirmed, Ongoing): The Ukrainian Air Force updates confirm continued drone activity across multiple regions, including Kyiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, and Kirovohrad. This represents a sustained and widespread Russian drone offensive.
NEW: Detailed drone movements reported by "Nikolaevsky Vanyok":
1 drone from Kirovohrad region moving into Bashtansky district.
1 drone approaching Kryvyi Rih.
1 drone east of Kropyvnytskyi, heading north.
1 drone heading towards/through Cherkasy.
3 drones heading towards Smila.
1 drone north of Kamianske, heading west.
3 drones moving from Poltava region into Kharkiv region.
1 drone circling near Chuhuiv.
1 drone north of Poltava, heading northwest.
1 drone flew past Shostka, heading West.
Geopolitical Developments:
Moldova-Russia Relations (Reported): TASS reports that Moldovan President Maia Sandu is delaying the approval of a new Russian ambassador due to confrontation with Moscow. This indicates continued strained relations between the two countries.
NEW: Saudi Arabia believes that Trump's statements on relocating Palestinians threaten a ceasefire agreement in Gaza.
Internal Russian Issues:
Military Unit 09332 (Reported Issues): A video message from relatives of servicemen in military unit 09332 (7th Military Base in Abkhazia) alleges widespread issues within the unit, including:
Concealment of real losses.
Regular mistreatment of soldiers.
Corruption and extortion.
Lack of information provided to families about missing soldiers.
This indicates potential morale and discipline problems within this Russian unit, which could impact its combat effectiveness.
Crime by Veteran (Reported): ASTRA reports a veteran of the war in Ukraine, previously a recidivist released from prison to fight as an assault trooper, stabbed and killed a Chechen man in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod region. This highlights potential social issues and risks associated with releasing prisoners to fight in the war, and the potential for increased violence within Russia itself.
Personnel Changes:
Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Resigns: The head of the press service of the Ukrainian Air Force Command, Ilya Yevlash, has resigned, without stating a reason.
Other:
Satire and Information Operations: Several posts (donkey image, historical claims about Kyiv Rus') highlight the ongoing use of satire and information operations to influence public opinion and morale.
Book Excerpt (Reported): Voenkor Kotenok highlights an excerpt of a book that divides the Russian population into different groups on participation to the war.
Video Reports (Reported): Voenkor Kotenok presents testimonies on soldiers participating in the war.
Skiing (Reported): A picture of a person practicing cross-country skiing has been shared, showing the importance of mobility in Winter.
Drone use (Reported): a picture shows a soldier holding a drone, indicating the reliance on the technology.
Overall Situation Assessment
The situation remains highly dynamic, dominated by a widespread and sustained Russian drone offensive targeting multiple regions of Ukraine. The reports of numerous drones moving across the country, coupled with air defense activity and air raid alerts, confirm this as the highest priority threat.
The Pokrovsk direction in the Donetsk region remains the area of most intense ground fighting, with continued Russian attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses.
The potential for significant Russian vulnerabilities in the Kursk region still needs to be verified.
The resignation of the Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson is a notable development, though its impact is unclear without knowing the reason for the departure.
