Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 21:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 21:08 UTC)

Kyiv Region: Drone Threat Persists, Air Defenses Active

• Air Defenses Active (Confirmed, Ongoing): Reports continue to confirm active air defense operations in Kyiv and surrounding areas, specifically targeting drones. This reinforces the ongoing aerial threat. Multiple drones were reported flying over Kyiv.
• Drone Threat Continues (Confirmed, Ongoing): The Ukrainian Air Force reports multiple drone groups moving from various directions:
  • From Chernihiv region, heading west.
  • Several groups from Kyiv region, heading towards Zhytomyr region.
  • On the border of Poltava and Chernihiv regions, heading towards Kyiv region.
  • Several groups heading towards Kharkiv/Kharkiv region.
  • From Poltava region towards Kharkiv region.
  • In Kirovohrad region, heading west.
  • Several drones are in the suburbs of Kharkiv.

Kursk Region: Conflicting Reports, Situation Remains Unclear, Potential Russian Weaknesses

• Conflicting Reports (Confirmed, Ongoing): The situation remains highly contested and unclear, with contradictory reports from various sources.
• Potential Russian Weaknesses (Reported): Alex Parker Returns claims that some Russian brigades supposedly holding positions near Sudzha "existed only on paper" and were never actually present. This, if true, represents a significant failure of Russian command and control, and a major vulnerability exploited by Ukrainian forces. This is accompanied by a derogatory comparison of former Minister of Defense Shoigu and current Minister Belousov.

Donetsk Region: No Major Changes Reported, Situation Remains Tense

• No Significant Changes: No major changes in territorial control or significant engagements have been reported in the last 30 minutes, though fighting continues at previous locations.

Drone Warfare: Widespread Activity, Ukrainian Acquisitions

• Widespread Drone Attacks (Confirmed, Ongoing): The Ukrainian Air Force updates confirm continued drone activity across multiple regions, including Kyiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, and Kirovohrad. This represents a sustained and widespread Russian drone offensive.
• Ukrainian Drone Acquisitions (Reported): STERNENKO reports the purchase of 420 drones (totaling 143,312 FPV drones) for 8.6 million hryvnias. This demonstrates continued Ukrainian efforts to bolster their drone capabilities.

Geopolitical Developments:

• Moldova-Russia Relations (Reported): TASS reports that Moldovan President Maia Sandu is delaying the approval of a new Russian ambassador due to confrontation with Moscow. This indicates continued strained relations between the two countries.

Internal Russian Issues:

• Military Unit 09332 (Reported Issues): A video message from relatives of servicemen in military unit 09332 (7th Military Base in Abkhazia) alleges widespread issues within the unit, including:
  • Concealment of real losses.
  • Regular mistreatment of soldiers.
  • Corruption and extortion.
  • Lack of information provided to families about missing soldiers.
  • This indicates potential morale and discipline problems within this Russian unit, which could impact its combat effectiveness.
• Crime by Veteran (Reported): ASTRA reports a veteran of the war in Ukraine, previously a recidivist released from prison to fight as an assault trooper, stabbed and killed a Chechen man in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod region. This highlights potential social issues and risks associated with releasing prisoners to fight in the war, and the potential for increased violence within Russia itself.

Other:

• Satire and Information Operations: Several posts (donkey image, historical claims about Kyiv Rus') highlight the ongoing use of satire and information operations to influence public opinion and morale.
• Book Excerpt (Reported): Voenkor Kotenok highlights an excerpt of a book that divides the Russian population into different groups on participation to the war.
• Video Reports (Reported): Voenkor Kotenok presents testimonies on soldiers participating in the war.
• Skiing (Reported): A picture of a person practicing cross-country skiing has been shared, showing the importance of mobility in Winter.
• Drone use (Reported): a picture shows a soldier holding a drone, indicating the reliance on the technology.

Overall Situation Assessment

The situation remains highly dynamic. The most immediate and critical developments are:

1. Sustained, Widespread Drone Attacks: The continued reports of drone activity across multiple Ukrainian regions, including Kyiv, confirm a major and ongoing Russian offensive using this tactic. This remains the highest priority threat.

2. Potential Russian Vulnerabilities in Kursk Region: The claim by Alex Parker Returns about "paper brigades" near Sudzha, if true, represents a significant weakness in Russian command and control, and a potential explanation for Ukrainian successes in the area. This requires further investigation and verification.

3. Internal Russian Issues: The allegations of misconduct and poor morale within military unit 09332, coupled with the reported crime by a veteran, highlight potential internal challenges facing Russia, which could indirectly impact the conflict.

4. Continued fighting in the Donetsk Region: although no major changes have been reported in the last 30 minutes.

The ongoing drone attacks across Ukraine necessitate continuous monitoring and air defense activity. The potential for significant Russian vulnerabilities in the Kursk region requires careful attention. The internal Russian issues, while not directly related to battlefield events, are important indicators of broader challenges facing the Russian war effort.