Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 21:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 20:38 UTC)

Kyiv Region: Air Defenses Active, Drone Threat Continues

• Air Defenses Active (Confirmed, Ongoing): Multiple sources (KMVA, Operativnyi ZSU, RBK-Ukraina, Klitschko) confirm that Ukrainian air defense systems are actively engaging targets, specifically drones, in Kyiv and on the left bank of the capital. This reinforces the ongoing aerial threat.
• Mobile Defense Groups are hunting "Shahed" drones.
• Drone Threat Confirmed (Ongoing): The Ukrainian Air Force has reported a drone moving in the direction of Zhytomyr, and now another group of "Shaheds" moving from the east towards Kremenchuk. This confirms the continued and widespread threat of aerial attack.

Kursk Region: Conflicting Reports, Situation Remains Unclear

• Conflicting Reports (Confirmed, Ongoing): Alex Parker Returns now claims that Makhnovka has been lost, contradicting earlier Russian MoD statements claiming a complete repelling of Ukrainian attacks. They also state that Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka are under Ukrainian control, with fighting continuing on the outskirts of Ulanok. This directly contradicts the earlier Russian MoD report and reinforces the assessment of a highly contested and unclear situation.
• "Fog of War" (Acknowledged): Alex Parker Returns explicitly acknowledges a "fog of war" situation, with both sides concealing the true state of affairs. This makes definitive assessments difficult.
• Rybar Analysis (Reported): Rybar reports that Ukrainian forces attacked positions near Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Fanaseevka, and Ulanok throughout February 6th. They state that Ukrainian forces did not reach Ulanok (stopping 1.3km short) and that while they moved through Fanaseevka and Cherkasskaya Konopelka during the day, they were not in full control of these settlements by the end of the day, having suffered losses from drones, artillery, and aviation. This presents a more nuanced picture than Alex Parker Returns, but still contradicts the Russian MoD.
• Dva Mayora Commentary (Reported): Dva Mayora criticizes the official Russian MoD report, suggesting it is inaccurate and does not reflect the reality on the ground. They highlight the performance of Russian drone operators (particularly "Moisey" from the "Akhmat" group) but argue that the overall information policy in the Kursk direction has been based on "not always objective data." This indicates internal Russian dissent regarding the official narrative.

Donetsk Region: Russian Advances, Ukrainian Counter-Narratives

• Chasiv Yar (Reported): The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports two ongoing combat clashes near Chasiv Yar.
• Dachne (Confirmed Russian Control): Colonelcassad reports, with supporting imagery, that Russian forces have fully captured Dachne, clearing the area around the school and raising a flag. This represents a confirmed Russian advance.
• Andriivka (Contested): Colonelcassad reports ongoing fighting in the eastern part of Andriivka, with Russian forces attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces in the area. This suggests a fluid and contested situation.
• Pokrovsk Direction (Reported): 148 enemies were neutralized, 81 of those irreversibly, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. One tank, 8 vehicles, an antenna, and one artillery system was destroyed. One tank, a multi-purpose transporter, and a self-propelled howitzer were damaged.
• Novopavlivsk Direction (Reported): The enemy attacked seven times near Lysivka, Kostyantinopol, and Rozdolny.
• Zarichne (Reported): Soldiers of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy T-64 BV tank.

Drone Warfare

• Ukraine-Wide Drone Attacks (Confirmed, Ongoing): The reports of air defense activity in Kyiv, and drone movement towards Kremenchuk and Cherkasy confirm the continuation of widespread Russian drone attacks.
• Ukrainian Drone Operations (Confirmed): Operativnyi ZSU posted a video showing a Ukrainian drone strike by the 503rd Separate Marine Battalion. Colonelcassad reports the destruction of a Ukrainian explosive-laden boat in the Dnipro estuary by Russian drones. These confirm continued Ukrainian drone activity.
• Cherkasy and Horodyshche (Reported): Drones are moving in the direction of Cherkasy and Horodyshche.

Sumy Region

• Guided Aerial Bombing has been reported.

Geopolitical Developments

• Greenland Independence (Reported): RBK-Ukraina reports that the leader of Greenland's ruling party has proposed accelerating the process of gaining independence from Denmark. This is not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, but it is a noteworthy geopolitical development.
• Sibiga's lessons (Reported): Don't be afraid of Putin. Believe in Ukraine's ability to win.

Overall Situation Assessment

The situation remains highly dynamic and complex. The most immediate and critical developments are:

1. Ongoing, Widespread Drone Attacks: The confirmed air defense activity in Kyiv, along with reports of drone movement across multiple regions, indicates a sustained and significant Russian drone offensive. This is the highest priority threat.

2. Highly Contested Kursk Region: The conflicting reports from various sources (Russian MoD, Alex Parker Returns, Rybar, Dva Mayora) make it impossible to definitively assess the situation in the Kursk region. It is clear that Ukrainian forces launched attacks, achieved some level of penetration, and that the situation is far more contested than the initial Russian MoD report suggested. The potential loss of Makhnovka, if confirmed, would be a significant development.

3. Confirmed Russian Advance at Dachne: The capture of Dachne by Russian forces represents a tangible Russian gain in the Donetsk region. The ongoing fighting in Andriivka suggests further Russian attempts to advance.

4. Continued Drone Warfare: Both sides continue to utilize drones extensively, highlighting the critical role of this technology in the conflict.

The conflicting information, particularly regarding the Kursk region, underscores the importance of verifying information from multiple sources and acknowledging the "fog of war." The continued drone attacks across Ukraine represent a major and ongoing threat requiring constant monitoring and air defense activity.