Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 20:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 20:08 UTC)

Kyiv Region: Drone Threat Continues, Air Defenses Active

Drone Threat Confirmed (Ongoing): The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone is moving in the direction of Zhytomyr. This confirms the continued threat of aerial attack in the region, even after reported explosions.
Air Defenses Active (Confirmed): As stated in the previous update, Ukrainian air defense systems are actively engaging hostile drones in the Kyiv region.

Kursk Region: Conflicting Reports, Potential Ukrainian Counteroffensive

Conflicting Reports (Confirmed): "Dva Mayora" reported ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, acknowledging the "successful localization" of Ukrainian breakthrough attempts but hinting at potential issues in official reporting. They later posted a video compilation showing multiple waves of Ukrainian attacks on February 6th, contradicting claims of complete repelling of the Ukrainian offensive. "Сливочный каприз" (citing "Dva Mayora") reported Ukrainian advances of up to 4km near Sudzha. These reports contradict the Russian MoD's statement claiming a complete repelling of the Ukrainian attacks.
Potential Ukrainian Counteroffensive (Speculative): "Военкор Котенок" suggests the increased activity near the T-0515 road between Yasenove and Slavyanka could be a sign of a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive aimed at Selydove. They hypothesize that the fighting in the Kursk region might be a diversion to draw Russian reserves away from this area. This is currently speculation but warrants careful monitoring.
Russian MoD Statement (Confirmed): The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have repelled Ukrainian attacks in the direction of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok, claiming significant Ukrainian losses.
Video Evidence of Ukrainian Attacks (Confirmed): "Dva Mayora" posted a video compilation reportedly showing multiple waves of Ukrainian incursion attempts in the Kursk region on February 6th. The video timestamps the alleged attacks:
- 10:08 AM: First wave towards Ulanok.
- 10:40 AM: Second wave, same direction. Burning enemy vehicles are shown from 3:54 onwards.
- 11:59 AM: Third wave, same direction.
- Undisclosed time: Fourth wave, described as a smaller Special Operations Forces (SSO) group on two Stryker APCs. One group reportedly moved into Cherkasskaya Konopelka, while the other attempted to dig in. The video shows Ukrainian troops dismounting under fire and attempts to recover damaged vehicles.
Further video evidence confirms detection of enemy units. Several waves of incursions, involving vehicles like the BTR Stryker.

Donetsk Region: Russian Claims and Ukrainian Counter-Narratives

Chasiv Yar (Reported): "Alex Parker Returns" reports a video that purportedly shows Ukrainian forces destroying roads while retreating from Chasiv Yar. This suggests potential Russian advances in the area, although the claim of a complete retreat is unconfirmed. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports two ongoing combat clashes near Chasiv Yar.
Velyka Novosilka (Reported Casualty): "BUTUSOV PLUS" reports that a group from the 22nd Special Forces Brigade went missing near Velyka Novosilka, including the commander. This signifies potential losses and communication issues within Ukrainian forces in the area.
Road T-0515 (Reported): "Военкор Котенок" reports intense Ukrainian activity near the T-0515 road between Yasenove and Slavyanka, suggesting a potential preparation for a counteroffensive.
Pokrovsk Direction (Reported): 148 enemies were neutralized, 81 of those irreversibly, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. One tank, 8 vehicles, an antenna, and one artillery system was destroyed. One tank, a multi-purpose transporter, and a self-propelled howitzer were damaged.
Novopavlivsk Direction (Reported): The enemy attacked seven times near Lysivka, Kostyantinopol, and Rozdolny.
Kurakhove Direction (Reported Casualty): "Colonelcassad" reports the death of Major Igor Solovyov, deputy commander of the logistics battalion of the 35th Marine Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, on February 5th.
Zarichne (Reported): Soldiers of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy T-64 BV tank.

Drone Warfare

Ukraine-Wide Drone Attacks (Confirmed): "RBK-Ukraina" reports ongoing Russian "Shahed" drone attacks across Ukraine. The map shows air raid alerts across much of the country, particularly in the east and south.
Kyiv (Reported) Drone attack on Kyiv is ongoing.
Ukrainian Drone Operations (Confirmed): "STERNENKO" posted a video showing a Ukrainian drone strike on a trench, dedicating it to a fallen soldier. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reported the Ukrainian "Shadow" unit identifying a concentration of Russian equipment, leading to a successful strike by a friendly unit using cluster munitions.

Geopolitical Developments

US-Panama Canal (Reported): TASS reported US Senator Marco Rubio stated the US expects the right of free passage for American ships and vessels through the Panama Canal under certain circumstances.
France-Russia Diplomatic Tensions (Confirmed): TASS reported the Russian embassy in Paris claiming France is misrepresenting the non-renewal of a Le Monde correspondent's accreditation as a retaliatory measure.
EBRD Investment in Ukraine (Confirmed): "RBK-Ukraina" reported the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) plans to invest at least €1.5 billion in Ukraine this year.
USAID (Reported): The state system of Ukraine might collapse without help from USAID, according to a Verkhovna Rada deputy.

Internal Ukrainian Issues

De-Mobilization of Medical Personnel (Confirmed): "RBK-Ukraina" reported the Ukrainian Ministry of Health stated that the "de-booking" of medical workers for the needs of the Armed Forces will occur upon request from the Ministry of Defense and the Command of Medical Forces.
Air Force Spokesperson Resignation (Confirmed): Both "Оперативний ЗСУ" and "RBK-Ukraina" report that the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, Ilya Yevlash, has resigned.

Internal Russian Issues

Debate Over Use of Donkeys (Confirmed): "Astra" reported a discussion at the State Duma level about the use of donkeys by Russian forces for transport.
Accidental Missile Launch (Reported): Both "Tsaplienko" and "Operativniy ZSU" report, citing Forbes, that Russia may have accidentally launched an "Oreshnik" ballistic missile that exploded within Russian territory.
Belgorod Region (Reported) A Russian X-59 missile was accidentally dropped near the village of Staroseltseve.

Sabotage

Odesa Region (Reported): Two individuals were detained for attempting to disrupt a military train, according to Tsaplienko.

Overall Situation Assessment

The situation remains highly volatile and dynamic. The confirmed ongoing drone attacks across Ukraine, including the threat to Kyiv and Zhytomyr, are the most immediate concern.

The situation in the Kursk region is highly contested and unclear. The conflicting reports from Russian and Ukrainian sources, coupled with video evidence of Ukrainian attacks, suggest a more complex situation than the Russian MoD's official narrative. The possibility of a Ukrainian counteroffensive aimed at Selydove, as speculated by "Военкор Котенок," needs to be considered, although it remains unconfirmed.

The reported Ukrainian withdrawal actions near Chasiv Yar and the missing special forces group near Velyka Novosilka indicate potential setbacks for Ukrainian forces in those areas.

The continued reports of drone warfare across the front lines highlight the critical role of this technology in the conflict. The potential malfunction of a Russian "Oreshnik" missile, if confirmed, would be a significant development.

The geopolitical and internal developments add further layers of complexity to the situation. The resignation of the Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson and the potential "de-booking" of medical personnel are noteworthy internal developments.

Situation Report