Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 20:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 19:40 UTC)

Kyiv Region: Air Raid Alerts, Drone Threats, and Explosions

• Air Raid Alert (Confirmed): Air raid alerts have been issued for Kyiv city and the wider Kyiv region. This indicates an imminent threat of aerial attack.
• Drone Threat (Confirmed): The Ukrainian Air Force reports drone activity near Brovary (Kyiv Oblast) and several drone groups moving from the north of the region towards Zhytomyr Oblast. The Kyiv City Military Administration has explicitly stated the air raid is due to the threat of attack drones.
• Explosions (Confirmed): Explosions have been reported in the Kyiv region. This, coupled with the drone threat, suggests an ongoing aerial attack.
• Air Defenses Active (Confirmed): Reports indicate Ukrainian air defense systems are actively engaging hostile drones in the Kyiv region.

Kursk Region: Continued Fighting, Conflicting Reports, Propaganda Efforts

• Continued Fighting (Confirmed): "Dva Mayora" reports ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, acknowledging the "successful localization" of Ukrainian breakthrough attempts but hinting at potential issues in official reporting. They emphasize the heroism of Russian units that repelled the attacks. This suggests the situation is still fluid and potentially more complex than official Russian statements suggest.
• Ukrainian Incursion Attempts (Documented): A video compilation released by "Отряд 'Т'" (and reported by "Dva Mayora") claims to show footage of multiple waves of Ukrainian incursion attempts in the Kursk region on February 6th. The video timestamps the alleged attacks:
  • 10:08 AM: First wave towards Ulanok.
  • 10:40 AM: Second wave, same direction. Burning enemy vehicles are shown from 3:54 onwards.
  • 11:59 AM: Third wave, same direction.
  • Undisclosed time: Fourth wave, described as a smaller Special Operations Forces (SSO) group on two Stryker APCs. One group reportedly moved into Cherkasskaya Konopelka, while the other attempted to dig in. The video shows Ukrainian troops dismounting under fire and attempts to recover damaged vehicles.
• Sudzha Area (Reported): "Сливочный каприз," citing "Dva Mayora" as a source, reports an attack by a Ukrainian armored column towards Fanaseevka, near Sudzha. They claim Russian FPV drone strikes on the Ukrainian armor and an advance of Ukrainian forces up to 4km, expanding their control south of Sudzha. This contradicts earlier reports of a complete repelling of the Ukrainian offensive.
• Propaganda Efforts (Confirmed): "Tsaplienko" reports on a video showing displaced Russian civilians from Sudzha, who survived a Russian airstrike on a school, claiming that Russian forces intended to eliminate them and portray them as "victims of the Ukrainian invasion." This appears to be part of a Ukrainian information operation to discredit Russian narratives.

Donetsk Region: Russian Advance near Kurakhovo

• Dachne/Kurakhovo (Confirmed): Several sources report that Russian forces have taken control of the town of Dachne and established their flag over the local school, as stated in the previous update.

Other Military Activity:

• Shadow Unit Operations (Reported): "Operativnyi ZSU" reports the Ukrainian "Shadow" unit identified a concentration of Russian equipment, leading to a successful strike by a friendly unit using cluster munitions. This indicates continued effective Ukrainian reconnaissance and strike capabilities, although the specific location is not provided.

Geopolitical Developments:

• US Stance on Panama Canal (Reported): TASS reports US Senator Marco Rubio stated the US expects the right of free passage for American ships and vessels through the Panama Canal under certain circumstances. This statement could have implications for global trade and potentially signal a more assertive US stance on international waterways.
• France-Russia Diplomatic Tensions (Confirmed): TASS reports the Russian embassy in Paris claims France is misrepresenting the non-renewal of a Le Monde correspondent's accreditation as a retaliatory measure. This highlights ongoing diplomatic friction between the two countries.
• EBRD Investment in Ukraine (Confirmed): "RBK-Ukraina" reports the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) plans to invest at least €1.5 billion in Ukraine this year. This demonstrates continued international financial support for Ukraine.

Internal Ukrainian Issues:

• De-Mobilization of Medical Personnel (Confirmed): "RBK-Ukraina" reports the Ukrainian Ministry of Health stated that the "de-booking" of medical workers for the needs of the Armed Forces will occur upon request from the Ministry of Defense and the Command of Medical Forces, identifying specific medical specialists. Applications will be processed through the "Diia" portal. This indicates a potential shift in manpower priorities towards military needs.
• Fire in Kyiv region (Reported): A fire in waste management center has been extinguished. The cause of the fire is being investigated.

Internal Russian Issues:

• Debate over use of Donkeys (Confirmed): "Astra" reports that a discussion is happening at the State Duma level, following reports of donkeys being used by Russian forces for transport. A deputy named Viktor Sobolov has been quoted, and he says that it is a normal practice.

Overall Situation Assessment

The most significant developments are the confirmed aerial attack on the Kyiv region, with drones threatening the capital, and the ongoing, contested situation in the Kursk region.

The air raid alerts, reported explosions, and active Ukrainian air defenses point to a significant Russian attack on Kyiv. The specific targets remain unclear, but the potential for civilian casualties and infrastructure damage is high.

The situation in the Kursk region remains highly contested. While the Russian MoD maintains the offensive has been repelled, multiple sources, including those generally pro-Russian, suggest ongoing fighting and a more complex situation. The video footage purportedly showing multiple Ukrainian incursion attempts, combined with reports of Ukrainian advances near Sudzha, contradicts the narrative of a complete Russian victory in the area.

The Ukrainian "Shadow" unit's reported success in identifying and enabling a strike on Russian equipment highlights continued Ukrainian operational effectiveness, although the lack of specific location details limits analysis.

The geopolitical developments, particularly the US stance on the Panama Canal and continued EBRD investment in Ukraine, add further layers of complexity to the international context.

The Ukrainian decision to potentially "de-book" medical personnel for military service indicates a possible prioritization of manpower towards the armed forces, reflecting the ongoing strain of the conflict.