Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 19:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 19:09 UTC)

Kursk Region: Conflicting Reports on Ukrainian Offensive, Russian Claims Persist

• Russian MoD Claims Repelled Offensive (Confirmed): The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) continues to maintain, and now multiple pro-Russian sources corroborate, that a Ukrainian counteroffensive attempt in the Kursk region was repelled. The MoD and associated channels claim heavy Ukrainian losses (over 200 personnel and ~50 pieces of equipment). The claimed tactical objective of the Ukrainian forces was to gain fire control over a 65-kilometer stretch of road between Sumy and Sudzha. "Dva Mayora" names specific Russian soldiers involved in repelling the attack. "Poddubny" provides a near-identical report to the MoD.
• Uncertainty Remains (Reported): Despite the Russian claims, "Alex Parker Returns" maintains a Ukrainian pocket remains. "Dva Mayora" reports conflicting information about the control of Cherkasskaya Konopel'ka and Fanaseevka, suggesting neither side fully controls the villages, with Ukrainian forces potentially positioned in nearby woods.
• Ukrainian Special Forces Operations (Confirmed): "RBK-Ukraina" confirms Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) were operating in the Kursk region months before the main offensive, using prepared routes. This indicates pre-planning and infiltration.

Air Activity: Drone Threat Continues, Shifts to Multiple Regions

• Kyiv Region Targeted (Confirmed): Up to ten groups of Shahed drones were reported moving towards the Kyiv region. This indicates a shift in target.
• New (19:25): Additional drone groups reported moving from Kirovohrad and Poltava Oblasts towards Cherkasy Oblast.
• NEW (19:09): Drone threat reported for Myrgorod and Kryvyi Rih.

Donetsk Region: Minor Russian Advances, Heavy Fighting Continues

• Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk Area (Reported): "Сливочный каприз" reports positional fighting near Horlivka. Russian forces reportedly expanded their control zone by up to 500 meters on the northern outskirts of Kpumckoe.
• Dachne (Reported): "Сливочный каприз", citing "Wargonzo", reports Russian forces have established a flag on a school building on the western outskirts of Dachne, claiming control of the settlement. They report an advance of up to 900 meters within the residential area.
• Kupyansk direction (Reported): "Сливочный каприз" reports positional fighting. Russian forces advanced west of the Oskil River, north of Dvurichna, up to 3km, and took new positions in Fyholivka.

Geopolitical Developments:

• Trump to Sanction ICC (Confirmed): TASS and "Tsaplienko" confirm Trump will sign a decree sanctioning the International Criminal Court (ICC) today, citing alleged "unlawful actions" against the US and allies (specifically Israel).
• Ukrainian Bonds Rise (Confirmed): "Operativnyi ZSU" confirms continued rise in Ukrainian dollar bonds, attributing it to growing expectations for a peace plan, while acknowledging the risk of a "bad deal".
• US Stance on Ukrainian Elections (Confirmed): US Special Envoy Kellogg states Ukraine should not hold elections "right now" due to it contradicting the Ukrainian constitution. He acknowledges elections after the fighting stops.

Humanitarian/Social:

• Children Returned from Occupied Crimea (Confirmed): "RBK-Ukraina" reports eight Ukrainian children returned from occupied Crimea, having been forcibly taken from their mother.

Other:

• Accidental Russian Missile Drop (Confirmed): ASTRA reports a Russian X-59 missile "accidentally fell" in the Belgorod region on February 3rd, with no casualties. ASTRA claims this is a pattern, citing previous incidents.
• Fire in Irkutsk Region (Reported): A fire broke out in a sorting shop of a timber industry complex in the Irkutsk region, covering an area of 2000 square meters.

Overall Situation Assessment

The Kursk region remains the primary area of contention. The Russian MoD's repeated claims of repelling a Ukrainian offensive, supported by multiple pro-Russian sources, suggest a significant Ukrainian attempt to gain ground, or at the very least, disrupt Russian supply lines. The reported target of a key road supports this. However, conflicting claims regarding a remaining Ukrainian pocket and reports of pre-incursion activity by Ukrainian Special Forces point to a more complex reality. The confirmation by "RBK-Ukraina" of pre-existing SSO operations is highly significant, suggesting a long-term strategy.

The air threat has broadened, with drone groups now reported heading towards not only Kyiv, but also Myrgorod, Kryvyi Rih, and Cherkasy.

In the Donetsk region, Russian forces appear to be making incremental gains, particularly around Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk and Dachne. However, heavy fighting continues.

The reported accidental missile drop in Belgorod raises serious concerns about Russian operational safety.

The sanctions against the ICC by the Trump administration represent a major geopolitical event.

The information regarding funding of the Ukrainian press should be verified by multiple, independent sources.