Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 19:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 18:38 UTC)

Kursk Region: Conflicting Reports Persist, Russian MoD Claims Second Repelled Offensive

Russian MoD Claims Second Repelled Offensive (Confirmed): The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD), via ASTRA, now claims to have repelled a second Ukrainian counteroffensive attempt in the Kursk region. They reiterate their earlier claims of heavy Ukrainian losses: over 200 personnel and approximately 50 pieces of equipment. The MoD states that Ukrainian forces made "eight waves of attacks" and were "stopped and defeated" with support from aviation and artillery. This aligns with prior reports from various pro-Russian sources.
- Specific Road Targeted (Reported): ASTRA, citing "Z-channels," reports that the attacking forces aimed to gain fire control over a 65-kilometer stretch of road between Sumy and Sudzha, a key supply route. This provides a specific tactical objective for the alleged Ukrainian offensive.
- Half-year Anniversary (Reported): ASTRA notes that today (February 6th) marks exactly six months since the "invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the region." This provides a historical context.
"Dva Mayora" Highlights Specific Soldiers (Confirmed): "Dva Mayora" credits specific individuals ("Bolshoy," "Maloy," "Khlyst") from the 2nd Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 810th Separate Guards Marine Brigade (Sevastopol) for their performance in repelling the attack. They are nicknamed "10 friends of the north". This provides further granular detail supporting the Russian narrative.
"Poddubny" Corroborates MoD Claims (Confirmed): "Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition" echoes the MoD's statements almost verbatim, reporting that Ukrainian forces were "stopped and suffered significant losses" in the direction of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok. He lists the same Ukrainian losses and credited Russian units as the MoD. This adds another layer of corroboration from a prominent pro-Russian source.
NEW (19:07): The Russian MoD confirms its own account.
Conflicting Claim - Pocket Still Not Eliminated (Reported): This earlier report from "Alex Parker Returns" claiming a Ukrainian pocket remains unaddressed by the new reports. The situation regarding the claimed Ukrainian foothold remains highly uncertain. "Dva Mayora" states, citing conflicting sources, that it's unclear if the towns of Cherkasskaya Konopel'ka and Fanaseevka are under Russian control. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces may not be in the area, with Ukrainian forces being positioned in the woods nearby.
NEW (19:04): "Fighterbomber" reports on the importance of Kursk.
NEW (18:59): "Kotsnews" comments on the situation.

Donetsk Region: No major changes reported.

Air Activity: Drone Threat Continues, Targeting Kyiv Region

Kyiv Region Targeted (Confirmed): The Ukrainian Air Force reports up to ten groups of Shahed drones moving from Chernihiv region towards Kyiv region. This indicates a shift in the primary target area of the ongoing drone attacks.
NEW (19:02): Remain in the shelters.

Military Operations:

Ukrainian Special Forces Operations in Kursk (Confirmed): "RBK-Ukraina" reports that Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) began conducting operations in the Kursk region several months before the main Ukrainian offensive. This confirms pre-incursion activity and suggests a degree of planning and preparation. The main forces were reportedly brought in via prepared routes. This is a significant revelation, suggesting a degree of long-term planning and infiltration.

Geopolitical Developments:

Trump to Sign Decree on ICC Sanctions (Confirmed): TASS and "Tsaplienko" corroborate reports that Trump will sign a decree imposing sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) today (February 6th). The decree cites alleged "unlawful actions" against the US and its allies, specifically mentioning Israel. This represents a major escalation in the US stance against the ICC.
Ukrainian Bonds Continue to Rise (Confirmed): "Operativnyi ZSU" provides further confirmation of the continued rise in Ukrainian dollar bonds, attributing it to growing expectations for a peace plan. They note an almost 8% increase this year. They also acknowledge the risk of a "bad deal" with "terrible consequences for Ukraine and Europe." This underscores the high stakes surrounding any potential peace negotiations.
US Special Envoy on Elections (Confirmed): "Tsaplienko" quotes US Special Envoy for Ukraine Settlement Kellogg stating that Ukraine should not hold elections "right now" as it contradicts the Ukrainian Constitution. He acknowledges that elections will need to be held "when the fighting stops," considering it a "sign of a healthy democracy."

Humanitarian/Social:

Children Returned from Occupied Crimea (Confirmed): "RBK-Ukraina" reports that eight Ukrainian children were returned from occupied Crimea. They were reportedly forcibly taken from their mother under threats and placed in an orphanage. This highlights the ongoing humanitarian crisis and human rights concerns in occupied territories.
Video of destroyed village (Confirmed): A video has been published of Avdeevskoe.

Other

NEW (18:59): Soldiers appeal for aid from Operation Z.
NEW (19:00): "Colonelcassad" reports on funding for the Ukrainian press.
NEW (18:56): "Alex Parker Returns" publishes a photograph.
ASTRA Reports on Accidental Missile Drop (Confirmed): ASTRA reports that a Russian X-59 missile "accidentally fell" from a Russian aircraft in the Belgorod region on February 3rd. There were no casualties. ASTRA claims this is part of a pattern, citing 16 dropped FAB bombs, two missiles, and one UMPB-250 in 2025, and 165 FAB drops in 2024. This raises serious questions about Russian air force safety and operational procedures.

Overall Situation Assessment

The Kursk region remains the focal point of conflicting reports. The Russian MoD's claim of repelling a second Ukrainian counteroffensive, supported by multiple pro-Russian sources, suggests a significant attempt by Ukraine to gain ground, or at least disrupt Russian supply lines. The reported target of a key road between Sumy and Sudzha provides a plausible tactical objective. However, the persistent claim of a remaining Ukrainian pocket by "Alex Parker Returns," coupled with the report of pre-incursion activity by Ukrainian Special Forces, suggests the situation is far more complex than the official Russian narrative. The six-month anniversary of the Ukrainian "invasion" adds a historical dimension.

The confirmed targeting of the Kyiv region by drone groups marks a significant shift in the air war, potentially indicating a change in Russian priorities or an attempt to stretch Ukrainian air defenses.

The reported accidental missile drop in Belgorod by a Russian aircraft, and the claims of numerous similar incidents, raise critical questions about Russian air safety and operational effectiveness. This could significantly impact Russian air operations and potentially embolden Ukrainian air defenses.

The confirmed sanctions against the ICC by the Trump administration represent a major geopolitical development with potential long-term consequences for international justice and US relations with its allies.

The continued rise in Ukrainian bond prices suggests growing optimism (or speculation) about a potential peace deal, but also highlights the risks associated with any such agreement. The statements by the US Special Envoy on elections provide clarity on the US position regarding Ukrainian elections.

Situation Report