Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 18:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 18:10 UTC)

Kursk Region: Conflicting Reports Intensify, Russian MoD Claims Repelled Offensive

Russian MoD Claims Repelled Offensive (Confirmed): The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) officially states that a Ukrainian counteroffensive attempt in the Kursk region, specifically towards Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok, was completely repelled. They claim heavy Ukrainian losses: over 200 personnel and approximately 50 pieces of equipment, including 8 tanks, 5 BMPs, a BTR, 30 armored vehicles, 3 IMRs, and a bridge layer. This is consistent with previous reports from "Dnevnik Desantnika" and "Colonelcassad."
MoD: "Mopping-Up" Operations (Confirmed): The Russian MoD further states that units of the "Sever" (North) group are conducting "mopping-up" operations against scattered Ukrainian groups in the area. This suggests the main Ukrainian force has been broken, but smaller groups remain.
Specific Units Involved (Confirmed): The Russian MoD credits the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, the 810th Separate Marine Brigade, the "Veterans" and "ArBat" volunteer formations, "Rubicon" drone operators, the 40th Separate Marine Brigade, and the 177th Separate Marine Regiment with repelling the Ukrainian attack.
Conflicting Claim - Pocket Remains (Reported): "Alex Parker Returns" claims that a "pocket" where Ukrainian forces had established a foothold has not been eliminated, contradicting the MoD's statement. They also report fighting on the outskirts of Ulanok and the use of heavy artillery ("chuguniy" - likely referring to large-caliber artillery shells) against Ukrainian positions. This source suggests the situation is less decisive than the MoD portrays.
NEW (18:20): Dva Mayora published a video report from a soldier from the "Musician" unit, speaking about the situation for the day in the Kursk region.
NEW (18:23): TASS reports that Russian MoD states that separate groups of Ukrainian armed forces are being removed from the area in the Kursk region.
NEW (18:26): Dva Mayora publishes a report, based on MoD information, regarding the situation in the Kursk region, including the losses of the Ukrainian armed forces.
NEW (18:31): Kotsnews publishes a report, based on MoD information, regarding the situation in the Kursk region, including the losses of the Ukrainian armed forces.
NEW (18:22): TASS reports significant losses by the Ukrainian forces during the offensive.

Donetsk Region:

Andreevskoye Direction (Confirmed): "Rybar" reports on the situation in the Andreevskoye direction (west of Kurakhovo). They claim Russian forces have completely cleared the settlement of Dachnoye, with video evidence showing a Russian flag raised in the local school. Fighting continues in the eastern part of Andreevka. They also report Ukrainian attempts to counterattack towards Zelenovka. Rybar highlights the narrowing "neck" of the potential encirclement near Konstantinovka and Ulakly (less than 4 km wide), suggesting a potential for trapping Ukrainian forces.
"Otvaszhniye" Operations near Pokrovsk and Toretsk (Confirmed): "Operatsiya Z" reports on the continued combat operations of the "Otvaszhniye" (Brave) group, claiming widespread destruction of NATO-supplied equipment and Ukrainian personnel. The footage, reportedly from February 5th, highlights the destruction of Bradley BMPs, French VAB BTRs, and other equipment.
NEW (18:15): Operativni ZSU published a video of a destroyed "Grad" system.
NEW (18:36): A video showing a concentration of destroyed Russian equipment was shared.

Air Activity

NEW (18:14): The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Shahed drone groups are headed towards the Chernihiv region.
Air Raid Alert in Multiple Regions (Confirmed): "Colonelcassad" reports air raid alerts in Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv regions. This confirms the ongoing drone activity reported earlier by the Ukrainian Air Force.
NEW (18:19): "Colonelcassad" reports air raid alerts in multiple regions.

Military Operations: Equipment and Technology

NEW (18:12): Stashe Eddy reports on the deployment of Mirage 2000 fighters.

Geopolitical Developments

Trump "Peace Plan" Leak (Reported): "Colonelcassad" reports on a Daily Mail leak claiming to outline a Trump peace plan. The plan allegedly involves pressuring Zelenskyy to agree to a ceasefire by Easter, publishing a final agreement by May 9th, stopping Russian westward advances, prohibiting Ukraine from joining NATO, requiring recognition of Russian sovereignty over newly acquired territories, withdrawing Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region, involving a European military contingent (excluding Americans) to guard a demilitarized zone, offering EU assistance for Ukrainian reconstruction, and initiating negotiations with a phone call between Zelenskyy and Putin in early February, followed by meetings in late February/early March, and an official ceasefire announcement by April 20th. This contradicts President Zelenskyy's earlier statement denying the existence of an official Trump plan. This remains unconfirmed and speculative.
Polish Sanctions Proposal (Confirmed): "Operativnyi ZSU" reports that Poland is proposing EU sanctions on the crews of the "shadow fleet" of tankers carrying Russian oil. This aims to address the environmental risks posed by these often poorly maintained vessels and to further restrict Russian oil revenue.
US Sanctions on IRGC Network (Confirmed): "RBK-Ukraina" reports that the US has imposed sanctions on an IRGC network involved in smuggling Iranian oil to China. This impacts companies in China, India, and the UAE.
NEW (18:28): Tsaplienko reports on the rise in value of Ukrainian dollar bonds.
NEW (18:29): "Operativni ZSU" reports on Poland's suggestion to include "shadow fleet" crews in sanctions.
NEW (18:31): Rybar reports on the visit of Russia's deputy minister of foreign affairs to Iraq.
NEW (18:33): Trump to sign a decree imposing sanctions against the International Criminal Court.

Internal Russian Issues

Ex-Wagner Fighter Sentenced (Confirmed): "Sever.Realii" reports that a former Wagner fighter was sentenced to 8 years in prison in Tula for attempted murder.

Humanitarian/Social

Zelenskyy Meeting with EBRD President (Confirmed): The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration posted a video of President Zelenskyy meeting with the President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Odile Renaud-Basso. They discussed expanding aid, increasing direct investment in the private sector, and cooperation in the banking sector. They also discussed support for internally displaced persons, particularly regarding housing. This highlights ongoing efforts to secure international financial and humanitarian support.
Benefits for Children of Wounded Soldiers (Confirmed): "MOBILIZATSIYA I Novosti I Srochniki" reports that children of wounded soldiers in Magadan will receive free school meals, vouchers for health camps, and stipends for students.
NEW (18:23): MOBILIZATSIYA reports on benefits for children of wounded soldiers in Magadan.

Other

NEW (18:38): Alex Parker reports on the situation in the Kursk region.
NEW (18:36): MoD Russia reports on Ukrainian POW statements.

Overall Situation Assessment

The Kursk region remains the most contentious area, with directly conflicting claims from the Russian MoD and "Alex Parker Returns." The MoD's official statement of a repelled offensive and "mopping-up" operations contrasts sharply with the claim of a persistent Ukrainian pocket. The reported heavy Ukrainian losses, if true, would represent a significant setback for Ukraine's operations within Russia. The MoD's detailed list of units involved adds credibility to their claim, but the conflicting report from "Alex Parker Returns" casts doubt on the completeness of the Russian victory. Verification from independent sources is crucial.

The Donetsk region continues to see intense fighting. "Rybar's" report of the complete capture of Dachnoye, if confirmed, represents a significant Russian advance west of Kurakhovo. The potential for encirclement near Konstantinovka and Ulakly remains a major threat to Ukrainian forces. The reported operations of the "Otvaszhniye" group underscore the ongoing pressure on Ukrainian positions in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions.

The leaked Trump "peace plan", while unconfirmed, is a major development. It introduces a potential, albeit highly controversial, path towards ending the conflict, but one that would heavily favor Russia. This leak, regardless of its accuracy, will likely fuel speculation and debate about potential future negotiations.

The confirmed air raid alerts across multiple Ukrainian regions highlight the persistent threat of air and missile attacks, particularly from drones.

The Polish proposal to sanction "shadow fleet" crews represents an attempt to further tighten the economic pressure on Russia and address environmental concerns. The US sanctions on the IRGC network reflect ongoing efforts to disrupt Iranian oil revenue and counter its regional activities.

The meeting between Zelenskyy and the EBRD President underscores Ukraine's continued reliance on international financial and humanitarian assistance. The confirmed reports of internal Russian issues, such as the sentencing of a former Wagner fighter, offer glimpses into the domestic consequences of the war.

Situation Report