Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 17:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 17:08 UTC)

Kursk Region: Intense Fighting & Conflicting Narratives Persist

Ukrainian Claims of Extended Operation (Confirmed): President Zelenskyy officially acknowledged the ongoing "Kursk Operation," stating it has lasted for six months. He claims the operation has brought the war "home to Russia" and praised the actions of Ukrainian forces, emphasizing their ability to operate effectively despite "limited resources." He specifically highlighted the capture of Russian soldiers, including some North Korean mercenaries. This statement has been reiterated in a new video message and is a key development.
Russian Claims of Repelled Attacks and Heavy Losses (Confirmed): "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports significant Ukrainian losses in a failed offensive in the Kursk region, claiming the destruction of 6 tanks, 3 IMRs, 3 BMPs, and 14 armored vehicles. They also state that the villages of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok are fully under Russian control, contradicting previous reports and Ukrainian claims. This is further supported with a claim that Russian forces are "cutting off" enemy attempts to advance with drones and artillery.
NEW (17:22 UTC): "Starshe Eddy" released another video compilation supposedly showing FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian equipment in the villages of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok.
Video of Ukrainian Casualties (Confirmed): "Colonelcassad" shares a graphic video purportedly showing numerous deceased Ukrainian soldiers in the Sudzha border area, further supporting the claim of heavy Ukrainian losses.
Continued Fighting Near Ulanok (Reported): "WarGonzo" reports that Ukrainian forces advanced past Cherkasskaya Konopelka, but were stopped near Ulanok, suffering significant losses. Russian reinforcements were reportedly deployed to Ulanok, preventing Ukrainian forces from cutting off logistics. The fate of a Russian garrison near Cherkasskaya Konopelka is uncertain. Fighting continues.
NEW (16:59 UTC): "Operatsiya Z" released a third part of a video series claiming the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment near Ulanok, Kurs region.
NEW (17:36): "Operativni ZSU" reports a Russian buggy, full of soldiers, hit a mine in the Kharkiv region.

Donetsk Region:

Destruction Along "Road of Death"(Confirmed): "Butusov Plus" reports the destruction of around 90 pieces of equipment near Donetsk.
NEW (17:32 UTC): "Tsaplienko" reports the destruction of approximately 90 pieces of Russian equipment on a single road in the Donetsk region, with a video showcasing a long stretch of destroyed and disabled vehicles.
NEW (17:11 UTC): "Operativni ZSU" reports graphic video of deceased Russian soldiers near Vozdvyzhenka.
NEW (17:19): "Colonelcassad" shows a video of Russian assault troops providing food and water to civilians in Velyka Novosilka.
NEW (17:17): "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports a failed Ukranian attack near Pyatykhatky.
NEW (16:53 UTC): "Colonelcassad" reported that a Russian Msta-B howitzer destroyed a Ukranian BMP.
NEW (17:03 UTC): "STERNENKO" reports the destruction of a Russian Strela-10 air defence system and a T-72 tank in the Zaporizhia direction.

Kharkiv Region:

Iskander-M Strikes (Confirmed): "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports that two Iskander-M missiles struck Ukrainian UAV launch points in Gusarovka, destroying 3 launchers, a control station, a warehouse, and 7 personnel.

Air Activity

Air Raid Alert in Zaporizhzhia (Active): Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reports an active air raid alert, urging citizens to take shelter.
NEW (16:59 UTC): "Повітряні Сили ЗС України" report drone activity from Zaporizhia towards Dnipropetrovsk.
Drone Strikes in Kursk (Confirmed): TASS reports that "Knyaz Vandal" drones struck two Ukrainian pickup trucks in the Kursk region. Video evidence supports this.

Military Operations: Equipment and Technology

Germany Planning to Acquire Tomahawks (Confirmed): "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" reports that Germany is evaluating the possibility of purchasing ground-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US. This would potentially provide a long-range strike capability (up to 2000 km with modern variants), posing a significant threat to Russia, even reaching Karelia or Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. The US plans to deploy the Typhon MRC system in Germany in 2026, which could potentially launch these missiles.
NEW (17:33): "MoD Russia" shows a video of an MLRS unit.
Russian Mobile Satellite System (Confirmed): "Basurin o Glavnom" reports that Russia is developing a mobile satellite communication system for its navy in response to Western actions that have cut off Russian ships from the Inmarsat system.
NEW (17:26): "Arkhangel Spetsnaz" shows video of aerial bombardments.
NEW (16:39 UTC): "Два майора" reports that the United Kingdom is in the final stages of testing two new USVs, "Snapper" and "Wasp," designed specifically for Black Sea operations. These USVs are intended for rapid deployment and targeting of unprotected land areas, rather than ships.
Ukrainian Production Bottleneck (Confirmed): "STERNENKO" reports, citing "Technological Forces of Ukraine," that Ukrainian private defense manufacturers failed to produce over 1.7 million drones and EW equipment in 2024 due to a lack of government contracts. This represents a $2 billion loss in potential production value, including over 1.6 million FPV drones, 72,000 strike drones, 8,400 reconnaissance drones, 1,600 long-range drones, 1,000 ground robotic complexes, and over 1,500 EW systems.

Geopolitical Developments

South Korea-Ukraine Prisoner Discussion (Confirmed): "RBK-Ukraine" reports that Ukraine is open to discussing the transfer of captured North Korean soldiers with South Korea.
No Official Trump Peace Plan (Confirmed): President Zelenskyy stated that there is no official Trump peace plan yet, contradicting the earlier Daily Mail "leak." RBK-Ukraine reports the same. "Operativni ZSU" also reports the same.
NEW (17:24 UTC): "Operatsiya Z" reports Zelensky signed a law prohibiting organ removal from deceased soldiers and homeless people.
NEW (17:20 UTC): RBK-Ukraine reports that the new US Secretary of Defense will attend the next "Ramstein" meeting.
NEW (17:15 UTC): RBK-Ukraine reports that Trump will impose sanctions against the International Criminal Court.
NEW (17:14): "Rybar" reports that UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy has arrived in Kyiv to announce £55 million in financial aid for Ukraine.
NEW (17:09): The Pope urged young Ukrainians to engage in dialogue and forgiveness.
NEW (17:07): TASS published a video of a meeting between Kiriyenko and Gunba.
NEW (17:06): "Voenkor Kotenok" asks for donations to fund a new UAZ Patriot pickup truck.
NEW (16:39 UTC): "RBK-Ukraine" reports that Zelensky is ready to negotiate with Putin, on the condition that there is an understanding of how the war will end.

Internal Russian Issues

Call for Reinstating Death Penalty (Reported): "Starshe Eddy" reports that LDPR leader Leonid Slutsky is calling for the reinstatement of the death penalty in Russia, particularly for captured Ukrainian soldiers who committed atrocities. This is framed as a necessary measure to ensure justice for victims of the conflict.
NEW (16:43 UTC): "ASTRA" reports that a 52-year-old man in Bryansk was sentenced to 17 years in prison for treason.

Cyber Warfare

Telegram Account Hacking Attempt (Confirmed): "Operatsiya Z" warns of a mass phishing attempt targeting Telegram accounts, particularly those of soldiers, disguised as a Sberbank app update. The update file reportedly contains a virus.

Humanitarian/Social

Program for Displaced Persons (Confirmed): President Zelenskyy has instructed officials to develop a program to support internally displaced persons, including assistance with housing. RBK-Ukraine reports this.
Kharkiv Teacher Support (Confirmed): The head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, Oleg Sinegubov, announced that 16,511 teachers in the Kharkiv region will receive additional payments in 2025, starting with 1000 hryvnias per month and increasing to 2000 hryvnias.
NEW (17:30): "Zaporizʹka oblasna viysʹkova administratsiya" reports on assistance by the Zaporizhia employment center.
NEW (17:28): RBK-Ukraine reports on fake messages circulating about reductions in firefighter staffing.
NEW (17:16): "Butusov Plus" shares a video of Putin talking to Russian scientists.
NEW (17:12 UTC): "Dva Mayora" reports that Azerbaijan is closing foreign "soft power" structures, while Turkish influence remains strong.
NEW (17:02 UTC): "Kotsnews" reports on reactions to the Russian hockey team's exclusion from international competitions.
NEW (17:01 UTC): "ASTRA" reports that Nikita Uvarov, a defendant in the "Kansk teenagers" case, has been sent to solitary confinement.
NEW (16:46): Kadyrov mourns the death of a family friend.
NEW (16:42): "Oleksandr Vilkul" reports on the day's events in Kryvyi Rih, including new educational programs.

Other

Nikopol Region Attacks (Confirmed): Sergiy Lysak, head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration, reports continued attacks on the Nikopol region using artillery, kamikaze drones, and dropped munitions. A 45-year-old woman was hospitalized, and damage was reported to residential buildings, businesses, infrastructure, and power lines.
NEW (17:32 UTC): "Basurin o glavnom" reports on a Wikileaks expose regarding USAID funding of media outlets.
NEW (17:18 UTC): TASS published a video of a meeting between Lavrov and Gunba.
NEW (17:14 UTC): RBK-Ukraine reports on fake news about the "killing" of a man by military registration and enlistment office employees in the Kharkiv region.
NEW (17:10 UTC): TASS reports on Netanyahu's gift of a gold-plated pager to Trump.
NEW (16:51): "WarGonzo" discusses the appointment of Yuri Mezinov as an assistant to the head of the Russian Emergencies Ministry.
NEW (16:48 UTC): "Rybar" reports on Canadian exports to the US.

Overall Situation Assessment

The Kursk region remains the primary focal point, with sustained intense fighting and drastically conflicting narratives. Ukrainian claims of a prolonged operation and capturing North Korean mercenaries suggest a wider strategic objective beyond limited incursions. President Zelensky's repeated emphasis on the "Kursk Operation" and its duration (now confirmed at six months) signifies its importance to Ukraine's overall strategy. The capture of North Korean mercenaries, if true, is a significant development with potential geopolitical ramifications. However, Russian claims of significant Ukrainian losses and the control of critical settlements, supported by new video evidence of destroyed equipment and casualties, present a starkly different picture. The fate of the Russian garrison near Cherkasskaya Konopelka remains a critical unknown.

The NEW reports regarding the UK's development of new USVs for Black Sea Operations is significant. This signals a focus on maritime warfare.

The NEW reports of a significant shortfall in Ukrainian drone and electronic warfare (EW) equipment production highlight an internal weakness.

The NEW information about Zelensky's willingness to negotiate with Putin, albeit with conditions, introduces a potential diplomatic avenue, though progress remains highly unlikely given the current battlefield dynamics and conflicting narratives.

The NEW video evidence of destroyed Russian equipment on a road in the Donetsk region ("Butusov Plus" and "Tsaplienko") suggests heavy losses for Russian forces in that area. This reinforces the intensity of fighting in the Donbas and highlights the vulnerability of Russian armor.

The NEW video promoting a documentary about the "Kursk Operation" from the Ukrainian General Staff further emphasizes the importance Ukraine places on this offensive.

The NEW information about Azerbaijan closing foreign "soft power" structures while Turkish influence remains strong ("Dva Mayora") highlights a shift in regional dynamics that could indirectly impact the broader conflict.

The NEW reports of fake news and disinformation campaigns (regarding firefighter staffing and the alleged "killing" of a man by military registration officers) underscore the ongoing information war and the need for vigilance.

The confirmed intention of Germany to acquire Tomahawk missiles represents a substantial development with long-term strategic implications for Russia.

The UK's development of new USVs for Black Sea operations is a NEW and significant development, indicating a continued focus on maritime warfare and potential for increased pressure on Russian naval assets and coastal areas.

The Ukrainian acknowledgment of a substantial shortfall in drone and EW production due to contract issues represents a vital disclosure, highlighting a critical internal weakness that might significantly affect their war effort.

The reported request for reinstating the death penalty within Russia, together with the graphic video of Ukrainian casualties, indicates a hardening of positions and possibly a more brutal stage of conflict.

The confirmed cyberattack attempt targeting soldiers' Telegram accounts emphasizes the ongoing cyber warfare aspect of the conflict. The reports of attacks in the Nikopol region, combined with the destruction in the Kyiv region reported earlier, highlight the continued targeting of civilian infrastructure and the humanitarian consequences of the war.

Situation Report