Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 17:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 16:38 UTC)

Kursk Region: Intense Fighting & Conflicting Narratives Persist

Ukrainian Claims of Extended Operation (Confirmed): President Zelenskyy officially acknowledged the ongoing "Kursk Operation," stating it has lasted for six months. He claims the operation has brought the war "home to Russia" and praised the actions of Ukrainian forces, emphasizing their ability to operate effectively despite "limited resources." He specifically highlighted the capture of Russian soldiers, including some North Korean mercenaries.
Russian Claims of Repelled Attacks and Heavy Losses (Confirmed): "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports significant Ukrainian losses in a failed offensive in the Kursk region, claiming the destruction of 6 tanks, 3 IMRs, 3 BMPs, and 14 armored vehicles. They also state that the villages of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok are fully under Russian control, contradicting previous reports and Ukrainian claims. This is further supported with a claim that Russian forces are "cutting off" enemy attempts to advance with drones and artillery.
Video of Ukrainian Casualties (Confirmed): "Colonelcassad" shares a graphic video purportedly showing numerous deceased Ukrainian soldiers in the Sudzha border area, further supporting the claim of heavy Ukrainian losses.
Continued Fighting Near Ulanok (Reported): "WarGonzo" reports that Ukrainian forces advanced past Cherkasskaya Konopelka, but were stopped near Ulanok, suffering significant losses. Russian reinforcements were reportedly deployed to Ulanok, preventing Ukrainian forces from cutting off logistics. The fate of a Russian garrison near Cherkasskaya Konopelka is uncertain. Fighting continues.
NEW (16:59 UTC): "Operatsiya Z" released a third part of a video series claiming the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment near Ulanok, Kurs region.

Donetsk Region:

Destruction Along "Road of Death"(Confirmed): "Butusov Plus" reports the destruction of around 90 pieces of equipment near Donetsk.
NEW (17:03 UTC): "STERNENKO" reports the destruction of a Russian Strela-10 air defence system and a T-72 tank in the Zaporizhia direction.
NEW (16:53 UTC): "Colonelcassad" reported that a Russian Msta-B howitzer destroyed a Ukranian BMP.

Kharkiv Region:

Iskander-M Strikes (Confirmed): "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports that two Iskander-M missiles struck Ukrainian UAV launch points in Gusarovka, destroying 3 launchers, a control station, a warehouse, and 7 personnel.

Air Activity

Air Raid Alert in Zaporizhzhia (Active): Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reports an active air raid alert, urging citizens to take shelter.
NEW (16:59 UTC): "Повітряні Сили ЗС України" report drone activity from Zaporizhia towards Dnipropetrovsk.
Drone Strikes in Kursk (Confirmed): TASS reports that "Knyaz Vandal" drones struck two Ukrainian pickup trucks in the Kursk region. Video evidence supports this.

Military Operations: Equipment and Technology

Germany Planning to Acquire Tomahawks (Confirmed): "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" reports that Germany is evaluating the possibility of purchasing ground-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US. This would potentially provide a long-range strike capability (up to 2000 km with modern variants), posing a significant threat to Russia, even reaching Karelia or Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. The US plans to deploy the Typhon MRC system in Germany in 2026, which could potentially launch these missiles.
NEW (16:39 UTC): "Два майора" reports that the United Kingdom is in the final stages of testing two new USVs, "Snapper" and "Wasp," designed specifically for Black Sea operations. These USVs are intended for rapid deployment and targeting of unprotected land areas, rather than ships.
Russian Mobile Satellite System (Confirmed): "Basurin o Glavnom" reports that Russia is developing a mobile satellite communication system for its navy in response to Western actions that have cut off Russian ships from the Inmarsat system.
Ukrainian Production Bottleneck (Confirmed): "STERNENKO" reports, citing "Technological Forces of Ukraine," that Ukrainian private defense manufacturers failed to produce over 1.7 million drones and EW equipment in 2024 due to a lack of government contracts. This represents a $2 billion loss in potential production value, including over 1.6 million FPV drones, 72,000 strike drones, 8,400 reconnaissance drones, 1,600 long-range drones, 1,000 ground robotic complexes, and over 1,500 EW systems.

Geopolitical Developments

South Korea-Ukraine Prisoner Discussion (Confirmed): "RBK-Ukraine" reports that Ukraine is open to discussing the transfer of captured North Korean soldiers with South Korea.
No Official Trump Peace Plan (Confirmed): President Zelenskyy stated that there is no official Trump peace plan yet, contradicting the earlier Daily Mail "leak." RBK-Ukraine reports the same. "Operativni ZSU" also reports the same.
NEW (16:39 UTC): "RBK-Ukraine" reports that Zelensky is ready to negotiate with Putin, on the condition that there is an understanding of how the war will end.

Internal Russian Issues

Call for Reinstating Death Penalty (Reported): "Starshe Eddy" reports that LDPR leader Leonid Slutsky is calling for the reinstatement of the death penalty in Russia, particularly for captured Ukrainian soldiers who committed atrocities. This is framed as a necessary measure to ensure justice for victims of the conflict.
NEW (16:43 UTC): "ASTRA" reports that a 52-year-old man in Bryansk was sentenced to 17 years in prison for treason.

Cyber Warfare

Telegram Account Hacking Attempt (Confirmed): "Operatsiya Z" warns of a mass phishing attempt targeting Telegram accounts, particularly those of soldiers, disguised as a Sberbank app update. The update file reportedly contains a virus.

Humanitarian/Social

Program for Displaced Persons (Confirmed): President Zelenskyy has instructed officials to develop a program to support internally displaced persons, including assistance with housing. RBK-Ukraine reports this.
Kharkiv Teacher Support (Confirmed): The head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, Oleg Sinegubov, announced that 16,511 teachers in the Kharkiv region will receive additional payments in 2025, starting with 1000 hryvnias per month and increasing to 2000 hryvnias.

Other

Nikopol Region Attacks (Confirmed): Sergiy Lysak, head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration, reports continued attacks on the Nikopol region using artillery, kamikaze drones, and dropped munitions. A 45-year-old woman was hospitalized, and damage was reported to residential buildings, businesses, infrastructure, and power lines.

Overall Situation Assessment

The Kursk region remains the primary focal point, with sustained intense fighting and drastically conflicting narratives. Ukrainian claims of a prolonged operation and capturing North Korean mercenaries suggest a wider strategic objective beyond limited incursions. However, Russian claims of significant Ukrainian losses and the control of critical settlements present a contrasting perspective. The contradictory information and the confirmed graphic video of casualties make it difficult to determine the precise ground situation. "WarGonzo's" reporting adds further complexity, indicating a Ukrainian advance and ongoing fighting, but also highlighting Russian reinforcements and logistical control.

The confirmed intention of Germany to acquire Tomahawk missiles represents a substantial development with long-term strategic implications for Russia.

The UK's development of new USVs for Black Sea operations is a NEW and significant development, indicating a continued focus on maritime warfare and potential for increased pressure on Russian naval assets and coastal areas.

The Ukrainian acknowledgment of a substantial shortfall in drone and EW production due to contract issues represents a vital disclosure, highlighting a critical internal weakness that might significantly affect their war effort.

The reported request for reinstating the death penalty within Russia, together with the graphic video of Ukrainian casualties, indicates a hardening of positions and possibly a more brutal stage of conflict.

The confirmed cyberattack attempt targeting soldiers' Telegram accounts emphasizes the ongoing cyber warfare aspect of the conflict. The reports of attacks in the Nikopol region, combined with the destruction in the Kyiv region reported earlier, highlight the continued targeting of civilian infrastructure and the humanitarian consequences of the war. The NEW report of Zelenskyy's readiness to negotiate with Putin, with conditions, introduces a potential diplomatic opening, although the conflicting narratives and ongoing fighting make any immediate progress unlikely.

Situation Report