Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 16:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 16:08 UTC)

Kursk Region: Continued Intense Fighting and Conflicting Information

Ukrainian Claims of Extended Operation (Confirmed): President Zelenskyy officially acknowledged the ongoing "Kursk Operation," stating it has lasted for six months. He claims the operation has brought the war "home to Russia" and praised the actions of Ukrainian forces, emphasizing their ability to operate effectively despite "limited resources." He specifically highlighted the capture of Russian soldiers, including some North Korean mercenaries.
Russian Claims of Repelled Attacks and Heavy Losses (Confirmed): "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports significant Ukrainian losses in a failed offensive in the Kursk region, claiming the destruction of 6 tanks, 3 IMRs, 3 BMPs, and 14 armored vehicles. They also state that the villages of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok are fully under Russian control, contradicting previous reports and Ukrainian claims. This is further supported with a claim that Russian forces are "cutting off" enemy attempts to advance with drones and artillery.
Video of Ukrainian Casualties (Confirmed): "Colonelcassad" shares a graphic video purportedly showing numerous deceased Ukrainian soldiers in the Sudzha border area, further supporting the claim of heavy Ukrainian losses.
NEW (16:27 UTC): "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports the destruction of Ukrainian vehicles and equipment in the Kursk region. 6 tanks, 3 engineering vehicles, 3 armored personnel carriers and 14 armored vehicles were destroyed.

Donetsk Region:

Destruction Along "Road of Death"(Confirmed): "Butusov Plus" reports the destruction of around 90 pieces of equipment near Donetsk.

Kharkiv Region:

Iskander-M Strikes (Confirmed): "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports that two Iskander-M missiles struck Ukrainian UAV launch points in Gusarovka, destroying 3 launchers, a control station, a warehouse, and 7 personnel.

Air Activity

Air Raid Alert in Zaporizhzhia (Active): Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reports an active air raid alert, urging citizens to take shelter.
Drone Strikes in Kursk (Confirmed): TASS reports that "Knyaz Vandal" drones struck two Ukrainian pickup trucks in the Kursk region. Video evidence supports this.
NEW (16:29 UTC): TASS reports that drones "Knyaz Vandal" struck 2 Ukranian trucks in the Kursk region.

Military Operations: Equipment and Technology

Germany Planning to Acquire Tomahawks (Confirmed): "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" reports that Germany is evaluating the possibility of purchasing ground-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US. This would potentially provide a long-range strike capability (up to 2000 km with modern variants), posing a significant threat to Russia, even reaching Karelia or Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. The US plans to deploy the Typhon MRC system in Germany in 2026, which could potentially launch these missiles.
Russian Mobile Satellite System (Confirmed): "Basurin o Glavnom" reports that Russia is developing a mobile satellite communication system for its navy in response to Western actions that have cut off Russian ships from the Inmarsat system.
Ukrainian Production Bottleneck (Confirmed): "STERNENKO" reports, citing "Technological Forces of Ukraine," that Ukrainian private defense manufacturers failed to produce over 1.7 million drones and EW equipment in 2024 due to a lack of government contracts. This represents a $2 billion loss in potential production value, including over 1.6 million FPV drones, 72,000 strike drones, 8,400 reconnaissance drones, 1,600 long-range drones, 1,000 ground robotic complexes, and over 1,500 EW systems.
NEW (16:35 UTC): "Colonelcassad" shares a video showing a large number of deceased Ukrainian soldiers, suggesting heavy losses in the Kursk area.
NEW (16:24 UTC): "STERNENKO" reports that Ukranian private military companies did not produce 1.7 million units of drones and electronic warfare equipment due to lack of orders.

Geopolitical Developments

South Korea-Ukraine Prisoner Discussion (Confirmed): "RBK-Ukraine" reports that Ukraine is open to discussing the transfer of captured North Korean soldiers with South Korea.
No Official Trump Peace Plan (Confirmed): President Zelenskyy stated that there is no official Trump peace plan yet, contradicting the earlier Daily Mail "leak." RBK-Ukraine reports the same. "Operativni ZSU" also reports the same.

Internal Russian Issues

Call for Reinstating Death Penalty (Reported): "Starshe Eddy" reports that LDPR leader Leonid Slutsky is calling for the reinstatement of the death penalty in Russia, particularly for captured Ukrainian soldiers who committed atrocities. This is framed as a necessary measure to ensure justice for victims of the conflict.

Cyber Warfare

Telegram Account Hacking Attempt (Confirmed): "Operatsiya Z" warns of a mass phishing attempt targeting Telegram accounts, particularly those of soldiers, disguised as a Sberbank app update. The update file reportedly contains a virus.
NEW (16:36 UTC): "Operatsiya Z" reports that hackers are attempting to hack Telegram accounts, pretending to be a "Sberbank" update.

Humanitarian/Social

Program for Displaced Persons (Confirmed): President Zelenskyy has instructed officials to develop a program to support internally displaced persons, including assistance with housing. RBK-Ukraine reports this.
Kharkiv Teacher Support (Confirmed): The head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, Oleg Sinegubov, announced that 16,511 teachers in the Kharkiv region will receive additional payments in 2025, starting with 1000 hryvnias per month and increasing to 2000 hryvnias.
NEW (16:35 UTC): "RBK-Ukraine" reports that Zelensky has ordered the development of an aid program for internal refugees.

Other

Nikopol Region Attacks (Confirmed): Sergiy Lysak, head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration, reports continued attacks on the Nikopol region using artillery, kamikaze drones, and dropped munitions. A 45-year-old woman was hospitalized, and damage was reported to residential buildings, businesses, infrastructure, and power lines.
NEW (16:28 UTC): "RBK-Ukraine" reports that Zelensky confirms there is not an official peace plan from Trump.

Overall Situation Assessment

The Kursk region remains the central focus, with intense fighting and widely diverging narratives. Ukrainian claims of a prolonged operation and the capture of North Korean mercenaries are significant, suggesting a broader strategic intent beyond limited incursions. However, Russian reports of heavy Ukrainian losses and the denial of Ukrainian control over key settlements paint a very different picture. The conflicting information and the confirmed graphic video of casualties create considerable uncertainty about the actual situation on the ground.

The confirmed intent of Germany to acquire Tomahawk missiles is a major development with long-term strategic implications for Russia.

The Ukrainian admission of a massive shortfall in drone and EW production due to a lack of government contracts is a critical revelation, highlighting a major internal weakness that could significantly impact their war effort.

The reported call for the reinstatement of the death penalty in Russia, coupled with the graphic video of Ukrainian casualties, indicates a hardening of attitudes and potentially a more brutal phase of the conflict.

The confirmed cyberattack attempt targeting soldiers' Telegram accounts underscores the ongoing cyber warfare dimension of the conflict. The reports of attacks in the Nikopol region, combined with the destruction in the Kyiv region reported earlier, highlight the ongoing targeting of civilian infrastructure and the humanitarian consequences of the war.

Situation Report