Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 16:08 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 15:38 UTC)
Kursk Region: Conflicting Reports and Intense Fighting
Loss of Cherkasskaya Konopelka (Claimed by Russian Sources, Highly Disputed): Multiple Russian sources, including "Dnevnik Desantnika" and "Colonelcassad," initially claimed the loss of Cherkasskaya Konopelka to Ukrainian forces. However, this contradicted earlier reports. The newest information, primarily sourced from Rybar, creates even more uncertainty. While the Russian MoD claims to have repelled all attacks and maintains control of both Ulanok and Cherkasskaya Konopelka, on-the-ground reports and video evidence are conflicting.
Continued Fighting Near Ulanok, Fanasievka, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye (Confirmed): Reports confirm ongoing battles.
Ukrainian Attempt to Deblockade Grouping (Reported): The primary goal of the Ukrainian effort is reportedly to deblockade groupings and logistical routes.
Captured Ukrainian Soldiers (Confirmed): "Dva Mayora" confirms the capture of Ukrainian soldiers in the Makhnovka area. Video evidence supports this.
Zelensky Acknowledges "Kursk Operation" (Confirmed): Acknowledges and praises the operation, emphasizing a strategic shift towards targeting Russian territory.
Russian MoD footage (Confirmed): Shows the destruction of Ukranian armored vehicles.
NEW (15:43 UTC):"Dnevnik Desantnika" reports on a new attack from the Ukrainian armed forces. The main objective of the enemy is to deblockade the grouping and logistic routes in the Kursk region.
NEW (16:06 UTC): Video from "Dva Mayora" shows the 382nd Separate Marine Battalion of the 810th Guards Marine Brigade (Sevastopol) assisting in repelling a Ukrainian counterattack.
**NEW (15:57 UTC):**Alex Parker Returns shows a map highlighting a Ukrainian advance in the Kursk region, using a road marked in blue. Fighting is ongoing.
NEW (15:54 UTC): Rybar reports on the Kursk direction, stating that the Russian MoD claims to have repelled all Ukrainian attacks and maintains control over Ulanok and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. However, there is conflicting information regarding Cherkasskaya Konopelka. Some sources suggest Ukrainian columns passed through the northern outskirts and reached the 38K-028 road, with two armored vehicles reportedly destroyed. The situation in Fanasievka is unclear, with reports of enemy movement. The attack towards Russkaya Konopelka reportedly did not reach the settlement. Heavy fighting continues near Malaya Loknya and Kruglenkoye.
NEW (16:06 UTC): Video released by "Dva Mayora" shows Russian Marines (382nd Battalion, 810th Brigade) assisting in repelling a Ukrainian counterattack in the Kursk region.
Russian MoD footage (Confirmed): The Russian MoD has released video footage of the destruction of Ukranian armoured vehicles near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok.
NEW(15:43 UTC): Russian forces are conducting an offensive in the Kursk region, targeting Ukrainian forces.
NEW(15:43 UTC): Many reports are corroborating the loss of Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
NEW (16:22 UTC): "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports that the Ukrainian command considers the strike near Kursk to be a distraction. They anticipate an attack on Belgorod in the morning.
Donetsk Region
South-Donetsk Front: Russian Advances (Ongoing): Confirmed Russian advances towards Urozhaynoye and fighting in Andreevka.
Dachne (Contested): Russian forces are reportedly "cleaning up" the area.
Horlivka: Cluster Munitions (Reported): "WarGonzo" reports Ukrainian forces are using cluster munitions to shell the center of Horlivka.
NEW (15:41 UTC): Colonelcassad reports on the Pokrovsk direction:
Russian forces are applying consistent pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
Russian forces are pushing towards Udachnoye, Chunishino, and Yelizavetovka.
The Russian forces are destroying enemy fortifications.
They are also attempting to create a "stable platform" to make progress in the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense.
Russian attacks in Udachnoye and the northwest of Kotlinoe have met with "fierce resistance."
Systematic pressure continues on Chunishino.
Battles are being fought on the Lisovka-Sukhoi Yar section, with no significant changes.
Russian units continue assaulting Elizzavetovka.
Russian troops continue to make preparations for an attack near Baranovka.
Russian artillery is striking Ukrainian positions in Uspenovka, Udachnoye, Kotlino, and Zverevoye.
NEW (15:49 UTC): Colonelcassad reports the destruction of a Ukrainian T-64BV tank in the Kursk region. Video evidence supports this.
Air Activity
F-16 and Mirage 2000-5 Arrival (Confirmed): Multiple confirmations, including a statement and image from the French Minister of Defense on social media.
Ballistic Missile Threat (Resolved): A ballistic missile threat was reported and lifted.
Missile Towards Poltava Region (Confirmed): Ukrainian Air Force reports a missile towards the Poltava region, and Myrhorod is told to take shelter.
NEW (15:39 UTC): Multiple Groups of UAVs in Sumy region. Moving towards Chernihiv and Poltava regions.
NEW (15:49 UTC): Video from "STERNENKO" shows 2 Russian Lancet kamikaze drones being shot down.
Luhansk Region
NEW (15:40 UTC): "Filolog v Zasade" claims that Russian troops have captured a few soldiers.
NEW (15:40 UTC): "Filolog v Zasade" reports that the General Staff of the Armed Forces is not organizing the rotation of soldiers in the Luhansk region.
Military Operations: Casualty Reports and Allegations
NEW (15:39 UTC): Video shows two allegedly Russian soldiers being forcibly removed from a hospital after surgery and transported towards Luhansk. The soldier filming expresses distress, raising serious concerns about the treatment of wounded soldiers.
NEW (15:38 UTC): Image purportedly shows a deceased Russian soldier in the Pokrovsk direction.
NEW(15:43 UTC): Many reports are corroborating the loss of Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
Geopolitical Developments
Trump-Putin Meeting (Potential): Reports continue, though specifics remain unclear.
EU Abandoning Russian Gas (Confirmed): The EU is working on a plan for complete abandonment.
Audit of War Spending (Confirmed): An audit of war spending in Ukraine and the US is reported.
Czech Prime Minister Criticizes Trump (Confirmed): Highlights potential divisions within the Western alliance.
Lavrov and Fidan Discuss Ukraine (Confirmed): Continued diplomatic efforts.
NEW (15:43 UTC): Ryanair wants to be the first airline to return to Ukraine after the opening of airspace.
NEW (15:46 UTC): Video from "Operativni ZSU" highlights Ukrainian SSO operations in the Kursk region.
NEW (15:55 UTC): Reports indicate that two Russian soldiers were wounded in a drone attack on a UAZ vehicle in the occupied village of Konskie Razdory, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
NEW (16:00 UTC): The Daily Mail publishes a purported "leak" of key points from a "Trump peace plan." These points include a ceasefire by April 20, 2025, Kyiv recognizing Russian sovereignty over occupied territories, withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Kursk, a ban on Ukraine joining NATO, potential EU membership in five years, continued US military supplies to Kyiv, and reconstruction funded by the EU. It also mentions a potential meeting between Putin and Zelensky. This report should be treated with extreme caution, as its authenticity is unverified.
NEW (15:49 UTC): A Ukrainian Rada deputy suggests Zelensky should stop listening to incorrect advice and ask for accurate data.
NEW (15:57 UTC): News came that Ukrainian authorities have created mandatory rules of conduct for the representatives of the Military Commissariats.
NEW (15:45 UTC): A video message from a mobilized soldier's wife shows her appealing for her husband's demobilization due to having five children. She claims authorities are refusing because he only had two children at the time of mobilization.
NEW (16:03 UTC): Reports indicate that Slovakia has begun importing Russian gas via TurkStream as of February 1st and plans to double the volume in April.
Overall Situation Assessment
The Kursk region remains the most volatile area, with intensified fighting and highly conflicting reports. The degree of Ukrainian control in Cherkasskaya Konopelka is now highly uncertain, with evidence suggesting a more limited incursion than initially claimed. The arrival of F-16 and Mirage 2000-5 aircraft in Ukraine is a major development. The conflicting reports create significant uncertainty.
The alleged mistreatment of wounded Russian soldiers, if verified, is a serious breach.
The geopolitical situation remains complex, with potential shifts in US policy, EU efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy, and diplomatic engagement. The "leaked" Trump peace plan, if accurate, represents a major shift and would be highly unfavorable to Ukraine. The reports of Slovakia increasing Russian gas imports highlight the complex energy dependencies in Europe. The reports about Ukrainian military conduct and the treatment of families of mobilized soldiers add a social and human rights dimension to the conflict.
