Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 15:45 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 15:38 UTC)

Kursk Region: Conflicting Reports and Intense Fighting

Loss of Cherkasskaya Konopelka (Claimed by Russian Sources, Disputed): Multiple Russian sources, including "Dnevnik Desantnika" and "Colonelcassad," claim the loss of Cherkasskaya Konopelka to Ukrainian forces. However, this contradicts earlier reports from the same sources, which claimed a successful Russian defense and the repelling of a Ukrainian attack. The situation remains highly contested, with conflicting information. The reports of intense fighting and losses on both sides are consistent.
Continued Fighting Near Ulanok, Fanasievka, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye (Confirmed): The reports confirm ongoing battles in these areas, with both sides claiming successes. The "Dnevnik Desantnika" report suggests a Ukrainian attempt to break through Russian defenses and disrupt logistics.
Ukrainian Attempt to Deblockade Grouping (Reported): The primary goal of the Ukrainian breakthrough attempt is reported as deblockading the grouping and logistical routes in the Kursk region. This signals a critical Ukrainian effort to regain control and resupply their forces.
Captured Ukrainian Soldiers (Confirmed): "Dva Mayora" confirms the capture of Ukrainian soldiers in the Makhnovka area, adding weight to claims of ongoing fighting and a possible Russian counter-offensive.
Zelensky Acknowledges "Kursk Operation" (Confirmed): This acknowledges and praises the operation, emphasizing a strategic shift towards targeting Russian territory. This represents a significant escalation.
NEW (15:43 UTC):"Dnevnik Desantnika" reports on a new attack from the Ukrainian armed forces. The main objective of the enemy is to deblockade the grouping and logistic routes in the Kursk region.
Russian MoD footage (Confirmed): The Russian MoD has released video footage of the destruction of Ukranian armoured vehicles near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok.

Donetsk Region

South-Donetsk Front: Russian Advances (Ongoing): Confirmed Russian advances towards Urozhaynoye and fighting reported in Andreevka.
Dachne (Contested): Russian forces are reportedly "cleaning up" the area.
Horlivka: Cluster Munitions (Reported): "WarGonzo" reports Ukrainian forces are using cluster munitions to shell the center of Horlivka.
NEW (15:41 UTC): Colonelcassad reports on the situation on the Pokrovsk direction:

*   Russian forces are applying consistent pressure on the Ukrainian defenses.

*   Russian forces are pushing towards Udachnoye, Chunishino, and Yelizavetovka.
*   The Russian forces are destroying enemy fortifications.
*   They are also attempting to create a "stable platform" to make progress in the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
*   Russian attacks in Udachnoye and the northwest of Kotlinoe have met with "fierce resistance."
*    Systematic pressure continues on Chunishino.
*    Battles are being fought on the Lisovka-Sukhoi Yar section, with no significant changes.
*    Russian units continue assaulting Elizzavetovka.
*    Russian troops continue to make preparations for an attack near Baranovka.
*    Russian artillery is striking Ukrainian positions in Uspenovka, Udachnoye, Kotlino, and Zverevoye.

Air Activity

F-16 and Mirage 2000-5 Arrival (Confirmed): Multiple confirmations of F-16s and Mirage 2000-5s arriving in Ukraine. This represents a significant upgrade to Ukrainian air capabilities.
Ballistic Missile Threat (Resolved): A ballistic missile threat from the southern direction was reported and lifted.
Missile Towards Poltava Region (Confirmed): Ukrainian Air Force reports a missile towards the Poltava region, and Myrhorod is told to take shelter.
NEW (15:39 UTC): Multiple Groups of UAVs in Sumy region. Moving towards Chernihiv and Poltava regions.

Luhansk Region

NEW (15:40 UTC): "Filolog v Zasade" claims that Russian troops have captured a few soldiers.
NEW (15:40 UTC): "Filolog v Zasade" reports that the General Staff of the Armed Forces is not organizing the rotation of soldiers in the Luhansk region.

Military Operations: Casualty Reports and Allegations

NEW (15:39 UTC): Video shows two allegedly Russian soldiers being forcibly removed from a hospital after surgery and transported in an ambulance towards Luhansk. The soldier filming expresses distress about being sent back to the front lines with open wounds and claims others are being treated similarly. This raises serious concerns about the treatment of wounded soldiers and potential violations of medical ethics and the laws of war.
NEW (15:38 UTC): Image purportedly shows a deceased Russian soldier in the Pokrovsk direction, with a caption mocking his pose.
NEW(15:43 UTC): Russian forces are conducting an offensive in the Kursk region, targeting Ukrainian forces.
NEW(15:43 UTC): Many reports are corroborating the loss of Cherkasskaya Konopelka.

Geopolitical Developments

Trump-Putin Meeting (Potential): Reports continue to suggest a potential meeting, though specifics remain unclear.
EU Abandoning Russian Gas (Confirmed): The EU is working on a plan for complete abandonment, marking a significant shift in energy policy.
Audit of War Spending (Confirmed): An audit of war spending in Ukraine and the US is reported, potentially impacting future aid and accountability.
Czech Prime Minister Criticizes Trump (Confirmed): The Czech Prime Minister states that "Not all of President Trump's statements and actions are feasible," highlighting potential divisions within the Western alliance.
Lavrov and Fidan Discuss Ukraine (Confirmed): The Russian and Turkish Foreign Ministers agreed on close contact regarding the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, indicating continued diplomatic efforts.
NEW(15:43 UTC): Ryanair wants to be the first airline to return to Ukraine after opening of airspace.

Overall Situation Assessment

The Kursk region remains the most volatile and contested area, with intensified fighting and highly conflicting reports. The Ukrainian claim of a strategic shift towards targeting Russian territory, coupled with the acknowledged "Kursk Operation," marks a significant escalation. The arrival of F-16 and Mirage 2000-5 aircraft in Ukraine is a major development, strengthening their air capabilities and potentially altering the balance of power in the air war. The conflicting reports, particularly regarding Cherkasskaya Konopelka, create significant uncertainty about the actual control of territory.

The alleged mistreatment of wounded Russian soldiers, if verified, represents a serious breach of ethical conduct and could have significant implications for morale and international scrutiny.

The geopolitical situation remains complex, with potential shifts in US policy under a possible Trump presidency, ongoing efforts by the EU to reduce reliance on Russian energy, and continued diplomatic engagement between key players. The audit of war spending could impact future aid to Ukraine and add pressure for accountability.

Situation Report