Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 15:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 15:08 UTC)

Kursk Region: Continued Fighting and Conflicting Claims

Continued Fighting Near Ulanok (Confirmed): Ongoing fighting is confirmed, with both sides claiming success and equipment losses.
Ukrainian Attack Repelled (Claimed by Russian Sources): "Kotsnews" and "Colonelcassad" report a major Ukrainian attack (up to two mechanized battalions) towards Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Ulanok, and Fanasievka was repelled with heavy Ukrainian losses. Russian forces involved include the 810th Marine Brigade, 11th Airborne Brigade, "Akhmat" special forces, and the Defense Ministry's volunteer corps. Video evidence of destroyed vehicles is presented by multiple Russian sources.
Russian MoD Footage (Confirmed): The Russian MoD released footage of the destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok.
Ukrainian Drone Strikes (Confirmed): Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed multiple trucks and cars.
Guided Aerial Bombs: Threat of guided aerial bombs along the border of the Sumy region reported by the Ukrainian Air Force.
Zelensky Acknowledges "Kursk Operation" (Confirmed): Zelensky acknowledges and praises the operation, emphasizing a strategic shift towards targeting Russian territory.
NEW (15:20 UTC): "Dva Mayora" reports captured Ukrainian soldiers in the Makhnovka area.
NEW (15:23 UTC): Images have emerged of another deceased serviceman, supposedly from the Kursk Region.

Donetsk Region

South-Donetsk Front: Russian Advances (Ongoing): Confirmed Russian advances towards Urozhaynoye and fighting reported in Andreevka.
Dachne (Contested): Russian forces reportedly "cleaning up" the area.
Horlivka: Cluster Munitions (Reported): "WarGonzo" reports Ukrainian forces are using cluster munitions to shell the center of Horlivka.
NEW (15:11 UTC): "Voin DV" reports that fighters of the 29th Guards Army used artillery and drones to hit enemy positions near Zelenovka, eliminating up to 10 Ukrainian soldiers.

Air Activity

F-16 and Mirage 2000-5 Arrival (Confirmed): Multiple confirmations of F-16s and Mirage 2000-5s arriving in Ukraine.
Ballistic Missile Threat (Resolved): A ballistic missile threat from the southern direction was reported and lifted.
NEW (15:19 UTC): Multiple sources are confirming the arrival of the first French Mirage aircraft in Ukraine.
NEW (15:26 UTC): Ukrainian Air Force reports a missile towards Poltava region, Myrhorod is told to take shelter.

Geopolitical Developments

Trump-Putin Meeting (Potential): Reports continue to suggest a potential meeting.
EU Abandoning Russian Gas (Confirmed): The EU is working on a plan for complete abandonment.
Audit of War Spending (Confirmed): Audit of war spending in Ukraine and the US reported.
US Media Funding Cuts (Reported): US Executive Branch agencies are reportedly ceasing funding for subscriptions to Politico, The New York Times, and Associated Press.
Azerbaijan to Sue Russia (Reported): Azerbaijan intends to sue Russia over the downing of a civilian airliner.
NEW (15:27 UTC): Czech Prime Minister speaks out against Trump, stating that "Not all of President Trump's statements and actions are feasible."
NEW(15:32 UTC): Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan agreed on close contact on the situation in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Information Warfare and Propaganda

Conflicting Reports (Kursk): The situation in the Kursk region remains contested, with both sides claiming victories and inflicting losses.
Propaganda from Both Sides: Both sides continue to use video footage and reports to shape the narrative.
"Navalny Rule": "Rybar" discusses a phenomenon where problems within the Russian military are ignored if the only media reporting on them are considered anti-Russian.
NEW (15:15 UTC): A post criticizes the Finnish Security Intelligence Service (SUPO) for discussing potential Russian hostage-taking of Finns.

Overall Situation Assessment

The Kursk region remains the focal point, with ongoing fighting and contested claims. While Russian sources claim decisive victories and the repelling of a major Ukrainian attack, Ukrainian sources emphasize continued fighting and successful drone strikes. The confirmed arrival of F-16s and Mirage 2000-5s significantly strengthens Ukrainian air capabilities, a major development that could alter the air war dynamics.

Geopolitically, the potential for a Trump-Putin meeting, the EU's move to abandon Russian gas, and the audit of war spending continue to be significant factors. Azerbaijan's lawsuit against Russia adds another layer of tension.

The ongoing information war is evident, with both sides using media to shape the narrative. Zelensky's acknowledgment of the "Kursk Operation" suggests a strategic shift towards directly targeting Russian territory, marking a significant escalation.

The reported Russian advances in the South Donetsk front persist, and the use of cluster munitions in Horlivka raises concerns about civilian casualties. The situation in Dachne remains contested.

Situation Report