Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 15:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 14:38 UTC)

Kursk Region: Continued Fighting and Claims of Repelled Attacks

• Continued Fighting Near Ulanok (Confirmed): "Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition" confirms ongoing fighting near Ulanok, with Ukrainian forces reportedly losing more equipment. Video evidence from "Poddubny" shows the destruction of Ukrainian military vehicles. Russian MoD released footage of FPV drones destroying Ukrainian armored vehicles.
• NEW (14:50 UTC): "Kotsnews" reports a Ukrainian attack in the direction of Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Ulanok, and Fanasievka, involving up to two mechanized battalions. Russian forces, including the 810th Marine Brigade, 11th Airborne Brigade, "Akhmat" special forces, and the Defense Ministry's volunteer corps, repelled the attack. Reportedly, six tanks, three engineering vehicles, three BMPs, and 14 armored fighting vehicles were destroyed. Video from "Kotsnews" shows the destruction.
• NEW (14:57 UTC): "Colonelcassad" reports that, as of 6 PM, the Ukrainian attack on Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok failed, with significant Ukrainian losses in personnel and equipment. Russian defenses held.
• Ukrainian Drone Strikes (Confirmed): "STERNENKO" video shows Ukrainian drone strikes destroying 5 trucks and 4 light cars in the Kursk region.
• Guided Aerial Bombs: Ukrainian Air Force reports the threat of guided aerial bombs along the border of the Sumy region.
• NEW (15:04 UTC): Russian MoD released footage of the destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok, Kursk region.

Donetsk Region

• South-Donetsk Front: Russian Advances (Ongoing): Confirmed Russian advances towards Urozhaynoye and posing a threat to Ukrainian forces, with fighting reported in Andreevka.
• Dachne (Contested): Russian forces are reportedly "cleaning up" Dachne, as per earlier reports, with video showing strikes and flag planting ("WarGonzo").
• Horlivka: "WarGonzo" reports that Ukrainian forces are using cluster munitions to shell the center of Horlivka.
• NEW (14:41 UTC): "Voin DV" video showing combat work of drone operators from the 30th Special Forces company of the "Vostok" group of the Russian Armed Forces from Buryatia in the South Donetsk direction.

Air Activity

• F-16 and Mirage 2000-5 Arrival (Confirmed): Multiple confirmations of F-16s from the Netherlands and Mirage 2000-5s from France arriving in Ukraine.
• Ballistic Missile Threat (Resolved): Ukrainian Air Force reported and then lifted a ballistic missile threat from the southern direction.

Geopolitical Developments

• Trump-Putin Meeting (Potential): Reports continue to suggest a potential meeting.
• US-Russia relations: Kellogg states the probability of Ukraine recovering nuclear weapons is "minimal to zero".
• EU Abandoning Russian Gas (Confirmed): "RBC-Ukraine" reports the EU is working on a plan for complete abandonment.
• NATO Blocking Russia in the Baltic (Claimed): TASS reports NATO's attempt to block Russia in the Baltic, citing Nikolai Patrushev.
• Audit of War Spending (Confirmed): "RBC-Ukraine" reports an audit of war spending in Ukraine and the US, per Kellogg.
• NEW (14:39 UTC): US Executive Branch agencies are reportedly ceasing funding for subscriptions to Politico, The New York Times, and Associated Press, according to Elon Musk ("Basurin o glavnom").
• NEW (14:42 UTC): Azerbaijan intends to sue Russia in international court over the downing of an Azerbaijani Embraer E190 aircraft on December 25, 2024, claiming it was shot down from a Russian military base near Grozny ("ASTRA").
• NEW (14:54 UTC): Russia is ready to find solutions to prevent rolling blackouts in Abkhazia, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak (TASS).

Information Warfare and Propaganda

• Conflicting Reports (Kursk): The situation in the Kursk region remains contested. The Russian MoD and affiliated channels claim decisive victory and repelled attacks, while Ukrainian sources emphasize ongoing fighting and successful drone strikes.
• Propaganda from Both Sides: Both sides are utilizing video footage and reports to shape the narrative and boost morale.
• NEW (14:42 UTC): Zelensky acknowledges and praises the "Kursk operation," stating that war "begins to return home to Russia." Video released showing damaged vehicles.
• NEW (14:53 UTC): "BUTUSOV PLUS" reports Russian "meat assaults" using a civilian "Lanos-cabriolet," claiming the group was eliminated.
• NEW (14:53 UTC): "Rybar" talks about the "Navalny rule," where problems in the army can be ignored, if the only media that reports on the problems is anti-Russian/pro-Western.

Overall Situation Assessment

The Kursk region remains the most active and contested area. While Russian sources claim decisive victories and repelled Ukrainian attacks, there is substantial evidence of continued fighting, Ukrainian drone operations, and significant equipment losses on both sides. The confirmed arrival of F-16s and Mirage 2000s significantly strengthens Ukrainian air capabilities, a major development in the conflict. The ongoing ballistic missile threat and reported air strikes underscore the continued intensity of the air war.

Geopolitically, the potential for a Trump-Putin meeting, the EU's move to abandon Russian gas, and the audit of war spending are significant. Azerbaijan's intention to sue Russia over the downing of a civilian airliner adds a new dimension of international legal and diplomatic tension.

The reported Russian advances on the South-Donetsk front continue, with the situation in Dachne remaining contested. The reported use of cluster munitions by Ukrainian forces in Horlivka raises concerns about civilian casualties.

The conflicting narratives and propaganda from both sides, particularly around the fighting in the Kursk region, highlight the ongoing information war. Zelensky's public acknowledgment of the "Kursk Operation" indicates a strategic shift towards targeting Russian territory, a significant escalation. The reported use of unconventional tactics by Russian forces, such as the "Lanos-cabriolet" assault, suggests desperation and a potential disregard for troop welfare. The reports about US media funding being cut add complexity to the media environment.