Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 14:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 14:08 UTC)

Kursk Region: Continued Fighting and Conflicting Reports

• Intense Fighting Continues: Reports from multiple sources, including "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" and "Dva Mayora", confirm ongoing fighting near Ulanok.
• Ukrainian Counteroffensive (Confirmed): The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially confirms a Ukrainian counteroffensive attempt, claiming it was repelled, with heavy Ukrainian losses. However, other sources suggest ongoing fighting and potential Ukrainian preparations for further attacks.
• Russian Control Asserted (Contested): The Russian MoD insists on complete control of Ulanok and Cherkasskaya Konopelka, contradicting some reports that suggest the situation remains contested. "Dva Mayora" specifically reports Cherkasskaya Konopelka as under Russian control, with Ukrainian forces pushed back. Alex Parker claims attacks on Ulanok continue, with Ukrainians amassing reserves.
• Ukrainian Objectives (Assessed): The primary Ukrainian objective appears to be disrupting Russian supply lines near Sudzha and improving their tactical position. Reports suggest a possible flanking maneuver aimed at Fanasievka and Ulanok, and a potential converging attack from the Sumy region.
• NEW (14:26 UTC): "STERNENKO" shares a video showcasing Ukrainian drone strikes claiming to show the destruction of 5 trucks and 4 light cars of the Russian forces.

Donetsk Region

• South-Donetsk Front: Russian Advances: Colonelcassad reports Russian forces advancing towards Urozhaynoye and posing a threat to Ukrainian forces near the Volchya River. Advances are reported in Andreevka, potentially leading to an encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Urozhaynoye.
• Dachne (Contested): Reports of Russian success in Dachne, with claims of complete liberation (unconfirmed). WarGonzo reports Russian forces "cleaning up" Dachne and approaching Ulakly.
• NEW (14:13 UTC): WarGonzo reports Russian forces destroying Ukrainian positions between Dachne and Ulakly, with video evidence showing strikes and the raising of a Russian flag on the outskirts of Dachne.

Air Activity

• Mirage 2000-5 and F-16 Arrival (Confirmed): Multiple sources confirm the arrival of French Mirage 2000-5 fighters and Dutch F-16s in Ukraine, significantly bolstering Ukrainian air capabilities.
• Ballistic Missile Threat: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic weapons being used from the southern direction. A missile strike was reported near Mykolaiv, followed by an air raid warning.
  • UPDATE (14:13 UTC): The Ukrainian Air Force announces the end of the ballistic missile threat.

Geopolitical Developments

• Trump-Putin Meeting (Potential): Reports continue to suggest a meeting between Putin and Trump is being prepared, potentially in February or March.
• US-Russia relations: Kellogg's statement, claiming the change of Ukraine recovering its nuclear weapon is "minimal to zero".
• NEW (14:11 UTC): "RBC-Ukraine" reports the EU is working on a plan to completely abandon the import of Russian gas.
• NEW (14:12 UTC): TASS reports that NATO is attempting to block Russia in the Baltic and paralyze the work of ports in the Leningrad and Kaliningrad regions, according to Nikolai Patrushev.
• NEW (14:35 UTC): "RBC-Ukraine" reports that Kellogg stated an audit of war spending will be conducted in Ukraine and the US.

Information Warfare and Propaganda

• Conflicting Reports: The status of Ulanok and Cherkasskaya Konopelka remains contested, with the Russian MoD claiming control, while other sources indicate ongoing fighting.
• NEW (14:17 UTC): Janus Putkonen, via MV-Lehti, criticizes Finland's restrictions on Russian real estate purchases, calling it "Russophobic" and claiming no threat from Russia has been demonstrated.
• NEW (14:18 UTC): TASS released a video of Maria Zakharova referring to Trump's words about metals in Ukraine with the command "aport".
• NEW (14:15 UTC): "Dva Mayora" presents a report where a Trump representative reiterates Ukraine's unlikelihood of regaining nuclear weapons and discusses claims about dwindling Ukrainian air defense ammunition.

Overall Situation Assessment

The situation in the Kursk region remains highly dynamic and contested. While the Russian MoD claims a decisive victory, other reports suggest ongoing fighting and potential Ukrainian preparations for further attacks. The video evidence of drone strikes from both sides underscores the intensity of the conflict.

The confirmed arrival of French Mirage 2000-5 and Dutch F-16 fighters in Ukraine represents a significant boost to Ukrainian air capabilities. The ongoing threat of ballistic missile strikes in the south remains a concern.

Geopolitically, the potential for a Trump-Putin meeting and the EU's plan to abandon Russian gas imports are significant developments. Kellogg's statements and the conflicting reports surrounding the situation in Kursk highlight the ongoing information warfare.

The reported Russian advances on the South-Donetsk front, particularly near Urozhaynoye and Dachne, indicate a continued Russian offensive effort. The situation in Dachne remains contested, with claims and counterclaims of control.

Drone warfare continues to be a prominent feature, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and strikes. The reported Ukrainian drone strikes in the Kursk region, combined with the Russian MoD's claims of a repelled counteroffensive, highlight the intensity of the conflict in that area.