Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 14:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates

Kursk Region: Intense Fighting and Confirmed Russian Control

Ukrainian Counteroffensive Confirmed, Attacks Repelled (Russian MoD): The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially confirms a Ukrainian counteroffensive attempt towards Ulanok and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. The MoD claims all attacks were repelled, and that both settlements remain under firm Russian control. This authoritative statement directly contradicts earlier reports of Ukrainian breakthroughs.
Heavy Ukrainian Losses (Claimed by Russian MoD): The Russian MoD claims significant Ukrainian losses:
- Up to 205 personnel killed/wounded in the past 24 hours.
- Over 57,860 total personnel lost since the beginning of hostilities in the region.
- Six tanks, three mine-clearing vehicles, 14 armored fighting vehicles destroyed in the attempted counteroffensive.
- Overall losses of more than two mechanized brigades.
Continued Fighting Reported, But Russian Control Asserted: Despite reports of ongoing clashes near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok, the Russian MoD insists on complete control. Multiple sources confirm ongoing fighting.
Russian Defensive Actions and New Drone Technology: Russian forces continue employing a multi-layered defense, with increased emphasis on fiber-optic guided drones. Multiple sources mention the "Knyaz Vandal Novgorodsky" drone used by the 30th Regiment, and the "VT-40" model. Fiber-optic guidance is significantly harder to jam than radio control, representing a potential technological escalation. Reports continue to highlight the effectiveness of these drones.
Confirmed Destruction of US-Supplied M1150 ABV: Multiple sources, including video evidence, confirm the destruction of a US-supplied M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle (ABV). This is a significant loss of a specialized engineering vehicle.
VIDEO EVIDENCE (13:08 UTC): "Operatsiya Z" releases video ("part 2") purportedly showing the "mass destruction" of "NATO armored vehicles" by the 30th Regiment near Ulanok. The footage shows burning tanks and armored fighting vehicles (BBMs) targeted by "Knyaz Vandal Novgorodsky" fiber-optic guided drones. "Dva Mayora" also reports on the video, confirming it depicts the Kursk region and stating fighting continues. "Voenkor Kotenok" also presents video of FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian equipment in the area of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok (MoD footage).
REPORT(13:25 UTC): "Dva Mayora" reports a month has passed since the last Ukrainian counterattack attempt, notes the lack of effectiveness of Ukrainian EW ("SuperREB"), and claims the footage of destroyed equipment is from Russian drones operating with fiber optic guidance.
Ukrainian Objectives (Assessed): The primary Ukrainian objective appears to be disrupting Russian supply lines near Sudzha and improving their tactical position. The reported Ukrainian attempt to bypass Cherkasskaya Konopelka to attack Fanasievka and Ulanok suggests a flanking maneuver.
REPORT (13:33 UTC): "Dva Mayora" provides an update on the situation in the Kursk region as of 16:00 local time (13:00 UTC), reporting that the "Sever" group of forces repelled a Ukrainian counterattack in the direction of Ulanok. Cherkasskaya Konopelka is reported as under Russian control, with Ukrainian forces being pushed back from the outskirts. The report claims the enemy is preparing for another "meat assault", potentially with two groups: one repeating the morning's route (Sudzha, Makhnovka - Cherkasskaya Konopelka), and another potentially attacking from the south (Sumy region, direction of Plekhovo - Borki). The "likely plan" is assessed as a converging attack to meet in the Plekhovo-Borki-Ulanok triangle.
NEW REPORT (13:50 UTC): Alex Parker states that attacks on Ulanok continue. He claims the Ukrainian forces are waiting for night to intensify the assault, and are amassing reserves from both the Sumy region and Sudzha. He notes that there have been battles near Kruglensky. Ukrainian forces are gathering for a strike near Plekhovo.
NEW REPORT (14:02 UTC): "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" provides an update for the Kursk region for February 6th evening. They confirm the morning attack at 8 AM local time towards Ulanok. The attack involved 350 personnel and up to 50 units of equipment. Ukrainian forces penetrated 5 km into the Russian defense, but could not reach Ulanok. Ukrainian forces that could retreat have done so. The remaining troops are attempting to consolidate positions, and are being targeted by Russian artillery and air strikes. The source claims that the Ukrainian forces had received satellite images of Ulanok and the surrounding areas a few days prior to the attack.
NEW REPORT (14:02 UTC): "Dva Mayora" reports a similar summary for the evening of February 6th in the Kursk region.
Russian Units Active: The 810th and 11th Brigades, with the support of Akhmat units, were involved. "Aид" confirms the ongoing fighting and expected continued Ukrainian efforts.
12:15 Update (from previous 6 hours): "Dva Mayora" reported Akhmat special forces supporting paratroopers engaged near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok, claiming a Ukrainian "fist" of 50 vehicles, including tanks and trawls. This aligns with the MoD's claim of a significant Ukrainian armored assault.
Video evidence: Of a destroyed MRAP during a Ukrainian attack near Ulanok.
"Moises" report, via "Dva Mayora", reports a large number of Ukrainian personnel and 22 units of equipment destroyed. Claims of disorganization among Ukrainian forces based on intercepted communications.
VIDEO(13:31 UTC): "Basurin o glavnom" shares the same MoD footage of destroyed Ukrainian armor, highlighting the use of FPV drones by Black Sea Fleet marines of the "Sever" group.
NEW VIDEO (14:05 UTC): Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces release a video showcasing drone strikes on Russian armored vehicles.
NEW VIDEO (13:53 UTC): "Dva Mayora" shares a video showing anti-tank mines deployed by a unit of the 810th Marine Brigade.

Donetsk Region

No Major Changes Reported: The overall situation remains unchanged, with ongoing positional fighting.
NEW REPORT (13:48 UTC): Colonelcassad reports on the South-Donetsk front. Russian forces are advancing towards Urozhaynoye and posing a threat to Ukrainian forces near the Volchya River. Russian forces have advanced 1km in the northern part of Andreevka, which could lead to an encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Urozhaynoye. Russian forces continue to push Ukrainian forces out of Dachnoye, and an unconfirmed report claims the complete liberation of the settlement. Russian forces are attacking towards Konstantinovka from the north in Andreevka, and northwest of Zelenovka. Heavy artillery fire is reported in Rozliv and Zelenovka. Russian forces are securing positions in Sribne and advancing towards Troitske and Orekhovo. Russian forces are advancing near Nadezhdenka, applying pressure towards Preobrazhenka. Ukrainian counterattacks near Novy Komar were repelled.
NEW VIDEO (13:48 UTC): Colonelcassad presents thermal imagery footage of targeted strikes, presumably in the Donetsk Region.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attack in Kharkiv: A drone attack targeted the city of Kharkiv in Saltivskyi, with details still being clarified.
UPDATE (13:24 UTC): Oleh Syniehubov (Kharkiv Regional Military Administration) reports a "Molniya" drone struck a residential building in the Saltivskyi district around 14:20 local time. No casualties reported. Another "Molniya" was reportedly shot down an hour earlier in the same district.
Guided bombs were dropped in the region.

Air Activity

Mirage 2000-5 Arrival: The French Ministry of Defense officially confirms the arrival of the first French Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets in Ukraine. A Ukrainian source ("RBC-Ukraine") also confirms. The exact number of delivered aircraft remains unspecified (reports range from 2 to 156, likely unreliable). "Operativny ZSU" and "RBC-Ukraine" confirm that Ukraine has received both Mirage 2000s from France and F-16s from the Netherlands. The Ukrainian Air Force ("Povitryani Sily ZS Ukrainy") officially thanks its partners.
12:33 Update (from previous 6 hours): "Fighterbomber" reports on the Mirage arrival, claiming older models (last produced in 2007). Claims they will be used to target drones and cruise missiles in rear areas. Offers a $1 million bounty for defecting Mirage pilots.
Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction.
UPDATE (13:06 UTC): The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by tactical aviation in the Kharkiv region.
UPDATE (13:01 UTC): The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of UAVs (likely "Shahed" drones) in Sumy and Kherson regions, warning of possible air defense activity.
NEW REPORT (13:52 UTC): Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic weapons being used from the southern direction.
NEW REPORT (13:53 UTC): "Nikolaevsky Vanyok" reports a missile strike near Mykolaiv.
NEW REPORT (13:53 UTC): Ukrainian Air Force issues an air raid warning for Mykolaiv.
NEW VIDEO(14:05 UTC): Russian MoD releases a video showing a Strela-10 SAM system engaging and destroying a Ukrainian Shark UAV in the Krasnoarmeysk direction.

Geopolitical Developments

Trump-Putin Meeting (Potential): The Russian State Duma claims a meeting between Putin and Trump is being prepared and is "100%" likely in February or March. This is a major development.
Russia-US Relations: A Trump representative stated Ukraine regaining nuclear weapons is "minimal to zero." General Kellog reiterated this.
12:10 Update (from previous 6 hours): General Kellog reiterates that Ukraine will not get nuclear weapons.
Kellogg does not plan to present a peace plan at the Munich Security Conference. He is going to engage with European leaders. A peace plan would be presented by Trump, at a later date.
STATEMENT(13:20 UTC): "RBC-Ukraine" presents a summary of Kellogg's statements: Ukraine's chances of regaining nuclear weapons are "between meager and zero"; no peace plan will be presented at the Munich Security Conference (this will be done by Trump himself); meetings with world leaders will discuss the war; a solution to the war should be "quick and beneficial" to all parties (including the US); and the visit to Europe will address Ukraine's potential NATO membership, seeking the positions of Britain, Denmark, and Germany.
Discussions about "concessions" regarding the conflict in Ukraine.
British Foreign Office revokes the accreditation of a Russian diplomat in response to a previous expulsion of a British diplomat from Moscow. Maria Zakharova states that Russia will answer proportionally.
REPORT(13:18 UTC): "RBC-Ukraine" reports that Andriy Yermak (Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine) discussed establishing a "constructive dialogue" with the new US presidential administration in a phone call with US Senator Lindsey Graham.
NEW REPORT(13:53 UTC): "RBC-Ukraine" quotes Trump suggesting that Israel could hand over Gaza to the US for a large-scale development project.
NEW REPORT (14:07 UTC): "Operativny ZSU" reports that France is blocking the operations of the "Russian House" in Paris, according to the Russian ambassador to France.

Information Warfare and Propaganda

Conflicting Reports: The status of Ulanok and Cherkasskaya Konopelka remains contested in reports, but the Russian MoD now officially claims complete control.
Disinformation campaign: Reports about a USAID campaign continue.
NEW(13:02 UTC): "ASTRA" reports on a "patriotic" version of the Monopoly board game based on the "Special Military Operation" being sold in Russia. The game features "Z" symbolism and a narrative of "liberating Ukraine from Nazi rule." The producer claims there is no scenario for a Russian defeat.
CLAIM (13:32 UTC): Janus Putkonen claims, through MV-lehti, that all Ukrainian media output is US-funded propaganda. He asserts a chain: USAID funds Kyiv Independent, Kyiv Independent publishes propaganda (citing the example of "North Koreans"), USAID funds Politico, and Politico publishes a major article based on Kyiv Independent.
NEW VIDEO(13:55 UTC): The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) releases a video address to Americans, highlighting historical cooperation between Russia and the United States.

Overall Situation Assessment

The most significant development is the repeated and emphatic official Russian MoD statements claiming a decisive repulse of a major Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, with heavy Ukrainian losses and continued, unwavering Russian control of Ulanok and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. This directly contradicts some earlier reports. This official statement, combined with reports of intense fighting and the use of advanced Russian drone technology (fiber-optic guided), and claims of significant Ukrainian equipment losses (including an M1150 ABV), paints a picture of a fierce and contested battle where Russian forces are actively defending and claim to have decisively defeated a major Ukrainian push. The new video evidence, coupled with reports from multiple sources, strongly suggests intense fighting and significant Ukrainian equipment losses. The situation in the Kursk region is very active, with multiple updates indicating continued fighting and preparations for further attacks from both sides.

The confirmed arrival of French Mirage 2000-5 fighters, now officially confirmed alongside Dutch F-16s, is strategically important, though the exact number remains unclear. This substantially bolsters Ukrainian air capabilities.

The potential for a Trump-Putin meeting remains a major geopolitical development. Kellogg's upcoming trip to Europe, specifically denying the presentation of a peace plan, but discussing potential concessions, indicates that diplomatic efforts are ongoing. Trump's suggestion of Israel transferring Gaza to the US adds another layer of complexity.

Drone warfare, particularly the Russian use of fiber-optic guided drones, remains a defining feature. The conflicting reports, active information warfare, and propaganda (like the "Special Operation" board game) continue to make obtaining a completely accurate picture difficult. The focus on the Kursk region, and the emphatic Russian claims of victory there, are the most important elements to monitor and verify. The new reports from "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" and "Dva Mayora" reinforce the intensity of the fighting in the Kursk region.

The reports of increased activity on the South-Donetsk front, including Russian advances, highlight another area of potential escalation. The reported strikes and air raid alerts in Mykolaiv indicate potential increased activity in the south.

Situation Report