Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 13:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates

Kursk Region: Intense Fighting and Conflicting Claims – Russian MoD Claims Victory

Ukrainian Counteroffensive Confirmed, Attacks Repelled (Russian MoD): The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially confirms a Ukrainian counteroffensive attempt towards Ulanok and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. The MoD claims all attacks were repelled, and that both settlements remain under firm Russian control. This authoritative statement directly contradicts earlier reports of Ukrainian breakthroughs.
Heavy Ukrainian Losses (Claimed by Russian MoD): The Russian MoD claims significant Ukrainian losses:
- Up to 205 personnel killed/wounded in the past 24 hours.
- Over 57,860 total personnel lost since the beginning of hostilities in the region.
- Six tanks, three mine-clearing vehicles, 14 armored fighting vehicles destroyed in the attempted counteroffensive.
- Overall losses of more than two mechanized brigades.
Continued Fighting Reported, But Russian Control Asserted: Despite reports of ongoing clashes near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok, the Russian MoD insists on complete control.
Russian Defensive Actions and New Drone Technology: Russian forces continue employing a multi-layered defense, with increased emphasis on fiber-optic guided drones. Multiple sources mention the "Knyaz Vandal Novgorodsky" drone used by the 30th Regiment, and the "VT-40" model. Fiber-optic guidance is significantly harder to jam than radio control, representing a potential technological escalation. Reports continue to highlight the effectiveness of these drones.
Confirmed Destruction of US-Supplied M1150 ABV: Multiple sources, including video evidence, confirm the destruction of a US-supplied M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle (ABV). This is a significant loss of a specialized engineering vehicle.
Ukrainian Objectives (Assessed): The primary Ukrainian objective appears to be disrupting Russian supply lines near Sudzha and improving their tactical position. The reported Ukrainian attempt to bypass Cherkasskaya Konopelka to attack Fanasievka and Ulanok suggests a flanking maneuver.
Russian Units Active: The 810th and 11th Brigades, with the support of Akhmat units, were involved. "Aид" confirms the ongoing fighting and expected continued Ukrainian efforts.
12:15 Update (from previous 6 hours): "Dva Mayora" reported Akhmat special forces supporting paratroopers engaged near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok, claiming a Ukrainian "fist" of 50 vehicles, including tanks and trawls. This aligns with the MoD's claim of a significant Ukrainian armored assault.
NEW: Video evidence of a destroyed MRAP during a Ukrainian attack near Ulanok.
NEW: "Moises" report, via "Dva Mayora", reports a large number of Ukrainian personnel and 22 units of equipment destroyed. Claims of disorganization among Ukrainian forces based on intercepted communications.

Donetsk Region

No Major Changes Reported: The overall situation remains unchanged, with ongoing positional fighting.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attack in Kharkiv: A drone attack targeted the city of Kharkiv in Saltivskyi, with details still being clarified.
NEW: Guided bombs were dropped in the region.

Air Activity

Mirage 2000-5 Arrival: The French Ministry of Defense officially confirms the arrival of the first French Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets in Ukraine. A Ukrainian source ("RBC-Ukraine") also confirms. The exact number of delivered aircraft remains unspecified (reports range from 2 to 156, likely unreliable).
12:33 Update (from previous 6 hours): "Fighterbomber" reports on the Mirage arrival, claiming older models (last produced in 2007). Claims they will be used to target drones and cruise missiles in rear areas. Offers a $1 million bounty for defecting Mirage pilots.
NEW: Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction.

Geopolitical Developments

Trump-Putin Meeting (Potential): The Russian State Duma claims a meeting between Putin and Trump is being prepared and is "100%" likely in February or March. This is a major development.
Russia-US Relations: A Trump representative stated Ukraine regaining nuclear weapons is "minimal to zero." General Kellog reiterated this.
12:10 Update (from previous 6 hours): General Kellog reiterates that Ukraine will not get nuclear weapons.
NEW: Kellogg does not plan to present a peace plan at the Munich Security Conference. He is going to engage with European leaders. A peace plan would be presented by Trump, at a later date.
NEW: Discussions about "concessions" regarding the conflict in Ukraine.
NEW: British Foreign Office revokes the accreditation of a Russian diplomat in response to a previous expulsion of a British diplomat from Moscow. Maria Zakharova states that Russia will answer proportionally.

Information Warfare and Propaganda

Conflicting Reports: The status of Ulanok and Cherkasskaya Konopelka remains contested in reports, but the Russian MoD now officially claims complete control.
Disinformation campaign: Reports about a USAID campaign continue.
NEW: Reports of a Monopoly-like board game based on the "Special Military Operation" being sold in Russia.

Overall Situation Assessment

The most significant development is the repeated and emphatic official Russian MoD statements claiming a decisive repulse of a major Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, with heavy Ukrainian losses and continued, unwavering Russian control of Ulanok and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. This directly contradicts some earlier reports. This official statement, combined with reports of intense fighting and the use of advanced Russian drone technology (fiber-optic guided), and claims of significant Ukrainian equipment losses (including an M1150 ABV), paints a picture of a fierce and contested battle where Russian forces are actively defending and claim to have decisively defeated a major Ukrainian push. While independent verification is crucial, the Russian MoD's repeated and specific claims significantly shift the narrative.

The confirmed arrival of French Mirage 2000-5 fighters is strategically important, but the unclear number and the likely older models (as claimed by "Fighterbomber") limit the immediate impact.

The potential for a Trump-Putin meeting remains a major geopolitical development. The new reports about Kellogg's upcoming trip to Europe, specifically denying the presentation of a peace plan, but discussing potential concessions, indicates that diplomatic efforts are ongoing, but a quick resolution is unlikely. The back-and-forth expulsions of diplomats between the UK and Russia increase tensions.

Drone warfare, particularly the Russian use of fiber-optic guided drones, remains a defining feature. The conflicting reports, active information warfare, and propaganda (like the "Special Operation" board game) continue to make obtaining a completely accurate picture difficult. The focus on the Kursk region, and the emphatic Russian claims of victory there, are the most important elements to monitor and verify. The situation in other regions appears relatively static, though drone activity in Kharkiv is a concern.

Situation Report