Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 12:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates

Kursk Region: Intense Fighting and Conflicting Claims Persist

• Ukrainian Counteroffensive Confirmed, Attacks Repelled: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially confirms a Ukrainian counteroffensive attempt towards Ulanok and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. The MoD claims all attacks were repelled, and that both settlements remain under Russian control. This is a significant, authoritative statement directly contradicting earlier reports of Ukrainian breakthroughs.
• Heavy Ukrainian Losses (Claimed by Russian MoD): The Russian MoD claims significant Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region:
  • Up to 205 personnel killed/wounded in the past 24 hours.
  • Over 57,860 total personnel lost since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region.
  • Six tanks, three mine-clearing vehicles, 14 armored fighting vehicles destroyed in the attempted counteroffensive.
  • Overall losses of more than two mechanized brigades.
• Reported Attack on Cherkasskaya Konopelka: Russian sources reported the Ukrainian offensive was in the direction of Ulanok.
• Continued Fighting in Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok: Confirmed battles are taking place, with neither side controlling the settlements.
• Russian Defensive Actions and New Drone Technology: Russian forces continue employing a multi-layered defense, with increased emphasis on fiber-optic guided drones. Multiple sources mention the "Knyaz Vandal Novgorodsky" drone used by the 30th Regiment, and the "VT-40" model. The reported use of fiber-optic guidance is significant as it is much harder to jam than radio-controlled drones, representing a potential technological escalation.
• Confirmed Destruction of US-Supplied M1150 ABV: Multiple sources, including video evidence, confirm the destruction of a US-supplied M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle (ABV) in the Kursk region. This represents a significant loss of a specialized engineering vehicle.
• Ukrainian Objectives (Assessed): The primary Ukrainian objective appears to be disrupting Russian supply lines near Sudzha and improving their tactical position. The reported Ukrainian attempt to bypass Cherkasskaya Konopelka to attack Fanasievka and Ulanok suggests a flanking maneuver.
• Russian Units Active: The 810th and 11th Brigades, with the support of Akhmat units, were involved in the counter attack.
• 12:15 Update: "Dva Mayora" reports Akhmat special forces are supporting paratroopers engaged in fighting near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok. Claims a Ukrainian "fist" of 50 vehicles, including tanks and trawls.

Donetsk Region

• No Major Changes There are not any changes to the situation in Donetsk.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone attack: A drone attack targeted the city of Kharkiv in Saltivskyi.

Air Activity

• No New Updates: There are no new major updates on air activity.

Mirage 2000-5 Arrival

• Confirmation and Numbers: The French Ministry of Defense officially confirms the arrival of the first French Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets in Ukraine. A Ukrainian source ("RBC-Ukraine") also confirms this. However, the exact number of delivered aircraft remains unspecified (reports range from 2 to 156, but these are likely unreliable).
• 12:33 Update: "Fighterbomber" reports on the arrival of Mirage 2000 fighters, claiming they are old models (last produced in 2007). Claims they will be used to target drones and cruise missiles in rear areas. Offers a $1 million bounty for defecting Mirage pilots, similar to the offer for F-16 pilots.

Geopolitical Developments

• Trump-Putin Meeting (Potential): The Russian State Duma claims a meeting between Putin and Trump is being prepared and is "100%" likely to happen in February or March. This would be a major diplomatic development.
• Russia-US Relations: A Trump representative stated that the chances of Ukraine regaining its nuclear weapons are "minimal to zero." General Kellog reiterated this statement.
• 12:10 Update: General Kellog reiterates that Ukraine will not get nuclear weapons.

Information Warfare and Propaganda

• Conflicting Reports: The conflicting reports about the status of Ulanok and Cherkasskaya Konopelka continue, with the Russian MoD now claiming complete control, directly contradicting some earlier reports.
• Disinformation campaign: USAID campaign is still being reported.

Overall Situation Assessment

The most significant development is the official Russian MoD statement claiming a repelled Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, with heavy Ukrainian losses and continued Russian control of Ulanok and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. This directly contradicts some earlier reports of Ukrainian breakthroughs. This official statement, combined with reports of intense fighting and the use of advanced Russian drone technology (fiber-optic guided), paints a picture of a fierce and contested battle where Russian forces are actively defending and claiming to have successfully repelled a major Ukrainian push. The situation remains highly dynamic, but the Russian MoD statement adds significant weight to the narrative of a stalled or repelled Ukrainian offensive.

The confirmed arrival of French Mirage 2000-5 fighters is strategically important, but the unclear number of delivered aircraft and the likely older models (as claimed by "Fighterbomber") limit the immediate impact.

The potential for a Trump-Putin meeting, as claimed by the Russian State Duma, is a major geopolitical development to monitor, with potential significant implications for the future course of the conflict.

Drone warfare remains a defining feature, with increased reports of Russian use of fiber-optic guided drones, a potentially significant technological development. The continued conflicting reports and active information warfare environment highlight the difficulty in obtaining a completely accurate picture of the battlefield situation.