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Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 11:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates

Kursk Region: Intense Fighting and Conflicting Claims

• Ukrainian Counteroffensive Continues: The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region remains the primary focus of military activity. Fighting is described as "intense" and "fierce" at multiple locations.
• Ulanok Highly Contested: The status of Ulanok is extremely unclear. Reports range from Ukrainian forces being on the outskirts, to Ukrainian forces having entered the village, to Russian forces repelling attacks towards the village, to claims that reports of its capture are false. This reinforces the "fog of war" and highlights the active information warfare component.
• Confirmed Fighting Locations: Confirmed battles are taking place near Russkaya Konopelka, Makhnovka, and Fanasievka. This indicates a broader area of operations than just Ulanok itself.
• Russian Defensive Actions: Russian forces are actively employing artillery, drones (including the reportedly new "VT-40" fiber-optic guided model), and aviation to counter Ukrainian advances. This signifies a multi-layered defense strategy.
• Reported Ukrainian Losses: Russian sources continue to claim significant Ukrainian losses, including tanks, armored vehicles, and an IMR engineering vehicle. These claims should be treated with caution due to potential bias, but do indicate heavy fighting. One source puts losses at up to 20 pieces of equipment (3 tanks, 1 IMR, 16 armored fighting vehicles).
• 11:56 Update Another source claims the destruction of an American M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle (ABV), an armored mine-clearing vehicle based on the M1 Abrams tank. This is a significant loss if confirmed.
• Reported Russian Losses: Ukrainian forces claim the destruction of a Russian command post in Rylsk, Kursk region. This, if true, would represent a significant blow to Russian command and control capabilities in the area.
• Ukrainian Objectives (Speculative): Pro-Russian sources speculate Ukrainian objectives include recapturing Cherkasskaya Konopelka, disrupting Russian supply lines from Sumy, and advancing to the rear of Russian forces.
• Ukrainian Counterattack (Reported): One source reports a Ukrainian counterattack aimed at preventing the blocking of supply routes to occupied Sudzha and pushing back Russian drone operators. This highlights the importance of logistics and counter-drone operations.
• 11:03 AM Update: "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports Ukrainian forces are advancing on Russkaya Konopelka and Ulanok. A column advancing towards Russkaya Konopelka was reportedly destroyed, with Ukrainian forces retreating. Unconfirmed reports suggest Ukrainian forces managed to reach the outskirts of Ulanok.
• 11:07 AM Update: "Operatsiya Z" reports Ukrainian forces attacking southeast of Sudzha, bypassing Cherkasskaya Konopelka, towards Fanasievka and Ulanok. The reported goal is to retake Cherkasskaya Konopelka and disrupt Russian supply lines. Russian paratroopers reportedly destroyed several Ukrainian trawls and "Kozak" armored fighting vehicles.
• 11:31 Update: Colonelcassad, citing "Severny Veter," reports the first wave of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been successfully repelled. Claims of over 100 Ukrainian personnel, 3 tanks, 2 IMRs, and 18 of 25 BBMs destroyed. Claims Ulanok was never captured. Remaining Ukrainian forces are reportedly taking shelter in forests, awaiting ammunition resupply from Sudzha.
• 11:37 Update: Poddubny reports that Ukrainian forces were accumulating in Sumy Oblast for several days. Russian forces reportedly launched strikes against these reserves, including using Iskander OTRK missiles. Claims up to 30 pieces of Ukrainian equipment involved, with heavy losses inflicted.
• 11:47 Update: Russian sources claim destroyed Ukrainian armored vehicle.

Donetsk Region

• Dachne Advance: Russian forces have reportedly cleared the northern part of Dachne and erected a flag over the local school. This represents a confirmed Russian advance in this contested area.

Kharkiv Region

• Vovchansk Sector: Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled two Russian attacks near Hatyshche. Ukrainian transport is reportedly under drone attack.
• Drone Warfare: Reports confirm continued extensive drone use by both sides, with FPV drones targeting vehicles and personnel. The Ukrainian "Achilles" drone unit reported significant successes in January 2025.

Air Activity

• Ukrainian Air Force Reports: Launches of guided aerial bombs in Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
• Russian Air Defense: Russian air defense reports interception of 104 Ukrainian drones.
• Missile Strikes: Three guided missiles were reported heading towards Chuhuiv and Balakliia, with reports of four launches.
• 11:22 AM Update: "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports strikes on Ukrainian command and control facilities in Kharkiv, including a territorial branch of the State Bureau of Investigations and a training facility of the National Guard.

Mirage 2000-5 Arrival

• Confirmation: The French Ministry of Defense officially confirmed the arrival of the first French Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets in Ukraine. This is a significant upgrade to Ukrainian air capabilities, although the precise number of delivered aircraft remains unspecified.

Geopolitical Developments

• Trump Peace Plan: Trump reportedly plans to present a plan to end the war at the Munich Security Conference. This could signal a major shift in US policy.
• Russia-US Relations: Russia's Foreign Ministry stated that the US should take the first step towards normalizing relations.

Other Significant Updates

• Heavy Russian Losses (Reported): The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian losses of approximately 1.5k personnel (killed and wounded) daily. This, if accurate, represents extremely high attrition.
• Explosions: Explosions were reported near a recruitment center (TCC) in Pavlohrad.
• 11:08 AM Update: Claims by Akhmat forces that they were not present where Ukrainian forces were hitting, as they were too dangerous.

Information Warfare and Propaganda

• Conflicting Reports: Continued conflicting reports and accusations surrounding the Kursk region offensive, including claims of "fake" reports. This underlines the active information warfare component.
• USAID Disinformation: Accusations that Elon Musk and Donald Trump's son are spreading false information about USAID funding to Ukrainian celebrities.
• 11:10 AM Update: "Rybar" reports on the spread of the disinformation about USAID, noting that it has been widely disseminated in English-language social media. This suggests an attempt to influence Western public opinion.

Overall Situation Assessment

The military situation remains highly dynamic, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region being the most significant development. The situation around Ulanok is extremely fluid and contested, with multiple conflicting reports and no clear control. Confirmed fighting is occurring at multiple locations, including Russkaya Konopelka, Makhnovka, and Fanasievka. Russian forces are actively employing a multi-layered defense, using artillery, drones (including a potentially new model), and aviation.

The arrival of French Mirage 2000-5 fighters is a strategically significant development, potentially boosting Ukrainian air defense capabilities. However, the operational impact will depend on successful integration and training.

Drone warfare continues to be a defining feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks. The reported use of a new Russian fiber-optic-guided drone ("VT-40") is a technological development that could potentially give Russia an advantage.

The information warfare environment is highly active, with conflicting reports and disinformation campaigns aimed at influencing both domestic and international audiences.

Geopolitically, the potential for a Trump-led peace plan represents a major development to monitor, with potential significant implications for the future course of the conflict.

The reported Ukrainian counterattack in the Kursk region, claims of high Russian casualties, and the confirmed Russian advance in Dachne (Donetsk region) all point to a continued high intensity of fighting across multiple fronts.