Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 11:08 UTC

Major Updates (February 6, 2025, 10:38 - 11:08 UTC)

1. Kursk Offensive: Conflicting Reports and Ongoing Battles:

   • Ulanok: While some sources previously claimed the capture of Ulanok, and others reported fighting near the village, more recent updates are further muddying the situation. Pro-Russian sources now claim Ukrainian forces are dismounting troops near Ulanok's approaches and attacking towards Russkaya Konopelka. One source even suggests Ukrainian forces have entered Ulanok's outskirts, while another claims the reports of Ulanok's capture are false and that Ukrainian forces are merely attempting to advance towards the village.
   • Russkaya Konopelka: Fighting is confirmed near Russkaya Konopelka, with Ukrainian forces reportedly attacking from the direction of Dmitryukov.
   • Makhnovka: Pro-Russian sources report battles near Makhnovka.
   • Fanasievka: Reported as a location of active fighting within the context of the Ukrainian offensive.
   • Overall: The situation remains fluid, with claims and counterclaims about specific village control. The general consensus is that a significant Ukrainian offensive is underway in the Kursk region, with intense battles occurring at multiple locations. Russian forces are actively engaging, using artillery, drones, and aviation.
   • Ukrainian Counterattack: One source reports a Ukrainian counterattack, aimed to prevent the blocking of supply routes to occupied Sudzha, and push back Russian "drone operators"

2. Kursk Offensive: Reported Ukrainian Losses and Russian Claims:

   • Russian sources report significant Ukrainian losses, with one source claiming the destruction of up to 20 pieces of equipment (3 tanks, an IMR engineering vehicle, and 16 armored fighting vehicles). Another source claims the destruction of an armored vehicle.
   • Russian sources emphasize the use of drones and artillery against Ukrainian forces, indicating a strategy of attrition.

3. Kursk Offensive: Alleged Ukrainian Objectives:

   • Pro-Russian sources speculate that the Ukrainian objective is to re-capture Cherkasskaya Konopelka, advance to the rear of Russian forces, and secure a supply route from Sumy. Other sources speculate that the Ukrainian goal is to distract from other active areas of the front.

4. Donetsk Region - Dachne: Russian forces have reportedly cleared the northern part of Dachne and erected a Russian flag over the local school building. This represents a confirmed advance for Russian forces in this contested area.

5. Kharkiv Region - Vovchansk Sector: Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled two Russian attacks near Hatyshche. Transport of Ukrainian forces is under attack by drones.

6. Drone Warfare:

   • Reports confirm continued extensive use of drones by both sides. Ukrainian FPV drones reportedly targeted a Russian HMMWV (Humvee) in the Kharkiv region.
   • A Russian FPV drone team ("Tilta" group) claimed to have used a new "VT-40" fiber-optic-guided drone to destroy a Ukrainian Humvee in the Kharkiv region. This, if confirmed, represents a new and potentially significant technological development in drone warfare.
   • Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed a Russian communications antenna and electronic warfare (EW) complex in the Sumy region.
   • The Ukrainian "Achilles" drone unit reported destroying or damaging 1,942 enemy targets in January 2025. The Ukrainian Navy claimed to have “landed” a Shahed.
   • A mobile fire group of the "Steel Border" brigade reportedly shot down a Shahed drone in the Sumy direction.
   • Ukrainian forces are using drones against Russian forces, who are trying to hide near "dragon's teeth" in the Kursk region.
   • Ukrainian drones are reportedly hitting Russian vehicles in the Kursk region.

7. Air Activity:

   • The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs in Kharkiv, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
   • Russian air defense reportedly intercepted 104 Ukrainian drones.
   • Three guided missiles were reported to be heading towards Chuhuiv and Balakliia. Four missiles are reported to have been launched, with two targeting Chuhuiv and two targeting Balakliia.

8. Mirage 2000-5 Arrival Confirmed: The French Ministry of Defense officially confirmed the arrival of the first French Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets in Ukraine. This represents a significant upgrade to Ukrainian air capabilities, although the number of delivered aircraft remains unspecified.

9. Propaganda and Disinformation:

   • Continued conflicting reports and accusations regarding the situation in the Kursk region, including claims of "fake" reports and counter-accusations. This underscores the active information warfare component of the conflict.
   • Accusations that Musk and Trump's son are spreading fake information about USAID funding to Ukrainian celebrities.

10. Geopolitical Developments:

    • Trump is reportedly planning to present a plan to end the war between Russia and Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference. This could signify a major shift in US policy.
    • Russia's Foreign Ministry stated that the US should take the first step towards normalizing relations, indicating a willingness for dialogue, but on Russia's terms.

11. Other Updates:

    • The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russia is losing about 1.5k personnel (killed and wounded) daily. This, if accurate, represents extremely heavy losses.
    • The monument to the defenders of Donetsk Oblast is being fortified with anti-drone mesh.
    • Explosions were reported near a TCC (Territorial Center of Acquisition and Social Support, the official recruitment centers in Ukraine) in Pavlohrad.

Updated Situation

The military situation is dominated by the ongoing Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. The situation around Ulanok remains highly contested and unclear, with multiple conflicting reports. Confirmed fighting is occurring near Russkaya Konopelka, Makhnovka, and Fanasievka. The scale of the Ukrainian force is still debated, with figures ranging from dozens to hundreds of personnel and vehicles. Russian forces are actively defending, using artillery, drones, and aviation. The arrival of French Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets represents a major strategic shift, potentially bolstering Ukrainian air defense capabilities, but the operational impact will depend on successful integration and training.

The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region is confirmed, with the primary fighting occurring near Ulanok, Russkaya Konopelka, and Makhnovka. The exact status of Ulanok remains highly contested, with conflicting claims from both sides. The scale of the Ukrainian force is still being assessed, but it's clear that a substantial offensive operation is underway. Russian forces are actively engaged in defensive operations, utilizing artillery, drones (including the new "VT-40" model), and aviation. Reports of significant Ukrainian losses need to be treated with caution due to the ongoing information war, but it is clear that both sides are sustaining casualties. The reported Ukrainian objectives involve securing key settlements and disrupting Russian supply lines.

Drone warfare continues to be a major component of the conflict, with confirmed reports of extensive drone use by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks. The reported use of a new Russian fiber-optic-guided drone ("VT-40") is a significant technological development that could potentially give Russia an advantage in counter-drone warfare and precision strikes. The destruction of a Ukrainian command post and various other targets highlights the ongoing intensity of drone operations across the front.

In the Donetsk region, Russian forces made a confirmed advance in Dachne, clearing the northern part of the settlement.

Geopolitically, the potential for a Trump-led peace plan for Ukraine is a major development to watch.

The reported Ukrainian counterattack in the Kursk region, coupled with claims of heavy Russian personnel losses, underscores the continued intensity of the fighting and the high stakes involved.