Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 10:38 UTC

Major Updates (February 6, 2025, 10:08 - 10:38 UTC)

1. Kursk Offensive Confirmed, Fighting Near Ulanok & Russkaya Konopelka: Multiple sources confirm an ongoing Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. While some initial reports claimed the capture of Ulanok, more recent updates indicate fighting is still ongoing near the village, with Ukrainian forces attempting to advance. Pro-Russian sources report Ukrainian forces dismounting troops near the approaches to Ulanok and attacking towards Russkaya Konopelka from the direction of Dmitryukov. Reports of up to 50 Ukrainian vehicles and 350-400 personnel are circulating, although numbers vary considerably. Despite conflicting initial reports, it's now clear that a significant Ukrainian offensive is underway, though the capture of Ulanok remains unconfirmed. The situation is fluid, with ongoing battles reported.

2. Kharkiv's Volchansk Sector: Positional Fighting Near Tikhoe: Confirmed positional fighting continues near Tikhoe, east of Volchansk.

3. Drone and Counterbattery Warfare (Various Locations):

   • Krasnolimansk: Russian FPV drones targeting Ukrainian personnel; Russian artillery destroying a Polish mortar.
   • Dniprovskyi Liman: Russian forces reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel (USV) filled with explosives.

4. Russian Air Defence System Engagement: Russian Armed Forces engaged military airfields and sites used for storing and launching Ukrainian drones. This represents a strategic targeting of Ukrainian drone capabilities.

5. Ukrainian Mirage 2000-5 Fighters Arrive: The French Ministry of Defense confirms the arrival of the first French Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets in Ukraine. Ukrainian pilots trained in France will operate them. This is a strategically significant development that could bolster Ukrainian air defense and strike capabilities, although the number of delivered aircraft is not specified.

6. Propaganda and Disinformation:

   • Allegations of a Ukrainian offensive south of Sudzha continue, likely to distract from actual battles.
   • Concerns about European opinions on a potential secret agreement between Trump and Putin regarding Ukraine persist.
   • Claims of a Ukrainian counterattack near Sudzha, with reported Russian use of long-range weapons, and conflicting information continue.

7. Astrakhan: Ukrainian forces attack a gas processing plan, and a large gas cloud resulted.

8. Other Updates:

   • An MMA fighter is training paratroopers in the Kursk direction.
   • Reports of a possible secret agreement between Trump and Putin regarding Ukraine.
   • Ukrainian forces struck a command post in the Kursk region.
   • Russian troops are trying to push Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka.
   • The US might seize control of the Gaza Strip and turn it into a "Middle Eastern Riviera".
   • Trump will present a plan to stop the war between Russia and Ukraine.
   • Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region with a Su-34 bomber.

Updated Situation

The military situation is marked by a significant and confirmed Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, specifically around Ulanok and Russkaya Konopelka. While claims of Ulanok's capture have been disputed and now appear to be premature, intense fighting is undoubtedly underway. The size of the Ukrainian force remains debated, but it's clear a substantial attack is ongoing. Russian sources acknowledge the offensive and claim to be inflicting losses on Ukrainian armor, suggesting an active defense. The situation is very fluid, with ongoing battles reported.

The arrival of the first French Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets in Ukraine, confirmed by the French Ministry of Defense, is a major development. These aircraft can significantly enhance Ukrainian air defense and strike capabilities, although their immediate impact depends on successful integration and ongoing training. This represents a qualitative increase in Western military aid.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with confirmed reports of Russian drone strikes against Ukrainian personnel and equipment (including a Polish mortar) in the Krasnolimansk direction, as well as the destruction of a Ukrainian USV.

The destruction of a Ukrainian unmanned surface vessel (USV) carrying explosives near the Dniprovskyi Liman confirms ongoing Ukrainian attempts to use such weapons for attacks in maritime areas.

The confirmed arrival of French Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets represents a major strategic shift, potentially bolstering Ukrainian air defense capabilities, but the operational impact will depend on successful integration and training.