Archived operational intelligence briefing
Kursk Offensive Confirmed: A Ukrainian offensive has begun from Makhnovka, with heavy fighting reported near Ulanok. The stated Ukrainian goal is to reach Cherkasskaya Konopelka. This represents a significant escalation, indicating an active and aggressive Ukrainian push into Russian territory.
Russian Air Response: Russian army aviation (Mi-28 helicopters) are actively targeting Ukrainian units within the Kursk region. This confirms a strong Russian response to the Ukrainian offensive, including the use of air power to counter the advance.
Guided Aerial Bomb Strikes: Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs (KABs) towards the Sumy and Donetsk regions. This suggests ongoing Russian air activity targeting multiple fronts.
Velyka Novosilka Drone Warfare: Ukrainian drone operators from the 110th Brigade are actively targeting Russian forces near Velyka Novosilka. This shows continued fighting in the area and Ukrainian efforts to resist further Russian advances, leveraging drone technology for precision strikes.
Kherson Drone Warfare: Russian sources report the disruption of a Ukrainian drone operator rotation near Antonovka, resulting in casualties and the destruction of a vehicle. This indicates continued clashes and Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian drone operations, which have proven to be a key element of the conflict.
"Arctic Forge 25" Exercise: Joint military exercises involving the US, Canada, and Finland, focusing on cold-weather operations, are planned for February 17-28. This highlights growing international attention and military preparedness for potential operations in Arctic environments, likely a response to increased Russian activity in the region.
"Belorussky Gayun" Hack: Belarusian security forces have reportedly hacked the feedback bot of the "Belorussky Gayun" Telegram channel. This channel monitors and publishes information on Russian and Belarusian military movements, and the hack suggests a crackdown on information sharing related to military activity in Belarus, potentially to prevent intelligence leaks to Ukraine or NATO.
SBU Warning: FSB Recruitment for Sabotage: The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) warns that the Russian FSB is recruiting individuals for attacks on Ukrainian Territorial Centers of Recruitment (TCC), and that these recruits are later eliminated. This indicates a concern about sabotage, internal security threats, and potential Russian efforts to disrupt Ukrainian mobilization.
Kharkiv Drone Strikes Continue: The prosecutor's office reports ongoing drone strikes in Kharkiv, specifically noting the target of the "Barabashovo" market. This confirms continued Russian targeting of civilian infrastructure and highlights the ongoing threat to civilian populations.
Roscosmos Leadership Change: A confirmed change of leadership at Roscosmos, with Dmitry Bakanov replacing Yuri Borisov. This could indicate potential shifts in priorities or strategies within Russia's space program, which has direct military implications for satellite communications, reconnaissance, and potentially weapons systems.
Baltic States Disconnect from Russian Grid: Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are disconnecting from the Russian energy grid and joining the Western European system. This is a major geostrategic move, reducing Baltic dependence on Russia and further integrating them with European infrastructure. It reduces Russia's leverage over these countries.
Improved North Korean Missile Accuracy: Reports indicate that North Korean ballistic missiles used by Russia in Ukraine have shown improved accuracy, reaching within 50-100 meters of their intended targets. This is a significant development, increasing the threat posed by these weapons and potentially indicating improved North Korean missile technology.
Air Raid Alert in Zaporizhzhia. The alert was declared and later lifted, then declared again and canceled. This may indicate either incoming threats, or a "false alarm".
Drone Strikes: New reports of drone movements towards Chernihiv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, Starokonstantinov, Bereznegovatoye, Pavlograd, Balakleya, Zlatopol, Zhytomyr, Fastov, Boyarka, Mirgorod, Priluki, Nezhin, Vylkove, Izmail, and Odesa Oblast. This may indicate a potential expansion and intensification of the conflict.
The overall situation is rapidly escalating. The confirmed Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, met with immediate Russian air response, marks a significant shift in the conflict's dynamics. This is no longer solely a defensive war for Ukraine.
The continued drone warfare, particularly the targeting of civilian areas in Kharkiv, underscores the ongoing threat to civilians and infrastructure. The reported improvement in North Korean missile accuracy adds another layer of concern. The ongoing battle for Pokrovsk (as reported in earlier updates) remains a critical focal point.
The disconnection of the Baltic States from the Russian energy grid is a significant geostrategic development, decreasing their dependence on Russia and further integrating them with the West.
The SBU warning about FSB recruitment for sabotage highlights internal security concerns within Ukraine, potentially necessitating increased counterintelligence measures. The leadership change in Roscosmos could signal shifts in Russia's space program priorities, with potential military implications for satellite communications, reconnaissance, and potentially weapon systems development or deployment. Panama's reported denial of the US' claim regarding free transit through the Panama Canal may affect US strategy in other areas.
The reports of soldiers, military units, and supplies being funded by various non-governmental organizations suggests that both sides are facing logistical difficulties.
The reported loss of a large group of soldiers west of Pokrovsk may affect Ukrainian strategy in the area.
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