Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 08:08 UTC

Major Updates (Since February 6, 2025, 07:38 UTC)

1. Kursk Offensive: Russian sources report a Ukrainian offensive beginning from Makhnovka, with heavy fighting near Ulanok. The goal is reportedly to reach Cherkasskaya Konopelka. This confirms a significant escalation in the Kursk region, with active fighting and stated Ukrainian objectives.

2. Army Aviation Eliminates Ukrainian Units, Kursk: Russian sources report that army aviation (Mi-28 helicopters) is actively involved in targeting Ukrainian units operating within the Kursk region. This indicates a significant Russian response to the reported Ukrainian offensive and confirms the use of air power.

3. Guided Aerial Bombs: Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) towards Sumy and Donetsk regions. This suggests ongoing Russian air activity targeting multiple areas.

4. Velyka Novosilka: Ukrainian drone operators from the 110th Brigade are actively targeting Russian forces in the Velyka Novosilka area. This confirms continued fighting near Velyka Novosilka and Ukrainian attempts to resist further Russian advances.

5. Kherson Direction: Russian sources report the disruption of a Ukrainian drone operator rotation near Antonovka, resulting in casualties and the destruction of a vehicle. This indicates ongoing clashes and Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian drone operations in the Kherson region.

6. "Arctic Forge 25" Exercise: Joint military exercises involving the US, Canada, and Finland, focusing on cold-weather operations, are planned for February 17-28. This highlights growing international attention and military preparedness for operations in Arctic environments.

7. Hack of "Belorussky Gayun": Belarusian security forces have reportedly hacked the feedback bot of the "Belorussky Gayun" Telegram channel, which publishes information on Russian and Belarusian military movements. This suggests a crackdown on information sharing related to military activity in Belarus.

8. Ukraine Warns of FSB Recruitment: The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) warns that the Russian FSB is recruiting individuals for attacks on Ukrainian Territorial Centers of Recruitment (TCC), and these recruits are later eliminated. This indicates a concern about sabotage and internal security threats.

9. Drone Strikes Continue, Kharkiv: The prosecutor's office reports ongoing drone strikes in Kharkiv, specifically noting the target of the "Barabashovo" market.

10. Roscosmos Leadership Change: Confirmed change of leadership at Roscosmos. This could indicate potential shifts in priorities or strategies within Russia's space program, which has military implications.

11. Baltic States Disconnect from Russian Grid: Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are disconnecting from the Russian energy grid and joining the Western European system.

Updated Situation

The military situation is intensifying, with a significant escalation reported in the Kursk region. Confirmed reports of a Ukrainian offensive and active Russian countermeasures, including the use of attack helicopters, indicate a serious development. The continued drone warfare, particularly the targeting of civilian areas in Kharkiv, highlights the ongoing threat to infrastructure and civilian populations. Reports of improved North Korean missile accuracy (from previous updates) remain a significant concern. The situation around Pokrovsk, as reported in earlier updates, remains critical. The disconnection of the Baltic States from the Russian energy grid is a geostrategic update. The SBU warning highlights internal security concerns. The leadership change in Roscosmos could indicate shifts in Russia's space program priorities, with potential military implications. The report of Panama's denial of claims that the US can pass through the Panama Canal for free may affect US strategy in other areas.