Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 07:08 UTC

Major Updates (Since February 6, 2025, 06:38 UTC)

1. Roscosmos Leadership Change: Yuri Borisov has been relieved of his duties as Director General of Roscosmos. Dmitry Bakanov has been appointed as the new Director General. This could indicate a shift in priorities or a response to recent performance issues within the Russian space program.

2. US Deportation and Immigration Policy: Rybar provides an update on US deportation efforts, suggesting a more complex situation than portrayed by some media. Key points:

   • El Salvador agrees to accept deported illegal immigrants convicted of crimes, potentially including US prisoners, in exchange for payment and investment in nuclear energy. This highlights the transactional nature of some international agreements and potential ethical concerns regarding prisoner transfers.
   • Initial flights to Guantanamo Bay are confirmed, carrying non-criminal illegal immigrants. This raises questions about due process and human rights, given Guantanamo's history.
   • A flight carrying illegal immigrants has been sent to India, the furthest destination yet. This expands the geographical scope of US deportation efforts.
   • Mexico is increasing troop deployments near the US border, fulfilling prior agreements. This emphasizes continued cooperation between the US and Mexico on immigration control, though it's not necessarily a direct result of Trump's recent policy.
   • Arrests of US citizens cooperating with minor drug gangs have begun in Ciudad Juarez. This signals a crackdown on cross-border criminal activity, but it's unclear if this is a significant change.
   • The US Secretary of Defense is visiting the southern border, promising support for border guards and promoting drone usage. This shows a continued focus on border security and a reliance on technology.
   • Eric Prince suggests issuing letters of marque to private military companies (PMCs) to target cartels. This reflects a controversial approach involving private actors in security operations, raising legal and ethical concerns.
   • Rybar concludes that the overall situation seems more focused on creating grounds for new military contracts and reallocating budget funds.

3. Propaganda Push: The information from Alex Parker implies that the sudden change in the leadership of Roscosmos is a direct answer to the new "young team" of Donald Trump. This could be a simple propaganda push to show that Russia is taking the same path as the US in order to increase efficiency.

4. Drone Warfare Continues: The Ukrainian Air Force claims to have shot down 56 of 77 attacking drones and claims that 18 "dummy" drones were lost without causing damage. This demonstrates the continued intensity of drone warfare, and the use of decoys by Russia. The Air Force says that 18 drones were used as "imitators" and did not cause damage. Drones were targeted across numerous regions, including Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa. Russian forces claim to have destroyed 28 Ukrainian drones. Russian forces' drone operators from the 69th separate brigade of the 35th Army, Vostok group, are disrupting rotations, ammunition deliveries, and destroying enemy fire positions in the South Donetsk direction. This confirms that the intensity of drone usage is still high.

5. Military Action: Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kharkiv region.

6. Diplomatic Exchanges: Moscow will accredit a Le Monde journalist if Paris resolves the visa issue for a Russian Komsomolskaya Pravda journalist, according to Maria Zakharova. This highlights the ongoing tensions and reciprocal measures between Russia and Western countries in the media sphere.

7. Diplomatic Talks: Russian Ambassador to London, Kelin states that Russia and the US are having preliminary discussions regarding the war in Ukraine.

8. Economic Relations: Moscow and Addis Ababa are starting to trade in national currencies.

Updated Situation

The most significant updates include the leadership change at Roscosmos, detailed reporting on US deportation policies, and ongoing reports of intense drone warfare.

Key Updates and Ongoing Trends:

• Kursk Operation: The Ukrainian claim of prolonged operations within Russian territory and significant enemy losses highlights a potentially expanding conflict scope. While confirmation of the scale is needed, it indicates a willingness to take the fight beyond Ukraine's borders. Ukrainian forces report repelling nine Russian attacks in the Kursk region.
• Pokrovsk Direction: Russian forces are within 2 kilometers of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk), are advancing near Yelyzavetivka and Andriivka, and fighting is ongoing in the center of Shevchenko.
• Drone Warfare: Continues to be a significant feature of the conflict, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks. Confirmed use of decoys.
• Diplomatic Discussions: A Russian ambassador states that preliminary discussions are being held with the US regarding the war in Ukraine.
• Kharkiv Region: Continued drone attacks and shelling, damaging infrastructure. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the region.

The continued focus on drone warfare, combined with the claimed Ukrainian operations within Russia, suggests a dynamic and potentially escalating conflict. The emphasis on the Kursk operation by Ukrainian forces indicates its strategic importance, potentially both as a diversionary tactic and as a means of directly targeting Russian capabilities. The leadership change at Roscosmos may signal a shift in priorities or a response to perceived performance issues.