Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 06:38 UTC

Major Updates (Since February 6, 2025, 06:08 UTC)

1. High-Speed Target (Sumy Border): The Ukrainian Air Force ("Повітряні Сили ЗС України") and "RBK-Ukraina" report a high-speed target on the border of the Sumy region. This, combined with earlier reports, suggests an ongoing or imminent threat of an air or missile attack. Another high-speed target, likely a ballistic missile, was detected later, heading in the same direction.

2. Russian Drone Strike (Polozhsky Direction): "Воин DV" reports (with video evidence) that drone operators of the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army, of the "Vostok" group, targeted a concentration of enemy personnel. This indicates continued active drone warfare in the area, likely within the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

3. Kursk Operation (6-Month Anniversary): The Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces ("Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України") release a video commemorating six months of operations in the Kursk region of Russia. The video claims significant Russian losses (thousands of personnel, hundreds of armored vehicles and artillery systems). They claim that the operation has forced Russia to divert resources, weakening their positions on other fronts. This is a significant propaganda message emphasizing Ukrainian capability and resilience. It also reiterates the claim of operations within Russian territory.

4. Additional Updates:

   • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the ballistic missile threat has been cleared in all areas.
   • RBC Ukraine reports that during the night, the Russians attacked the city of Kharkiv with drones, specifically attacking one of the largest markets.
   • TASS reports that the Pokrovskoe coal mine infrastructure near Pokrovsk has been mined by Ukrainian forces.
   • A video was shared showing the Barabashovo market in Kharkiv being attacked by Shahed drones.
   • The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that during the six months of operations in the Kursk region, enemy losses amounted to approximately 40,000 people, including 16,100 killed. They also claimed that 909 Russian soldiers were taken prisoner.

Updated Situation

The most significant updates involve the renewed ballistic missile threat in the Sumy region and the ongoing Ukrainian operations within the Kursk region of Russia, as highlighted by the 6-month anniversary report and video from the Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces.

Key Updates and Ongoing Trends:

• Sumy Region: The renewed ballistic missile threat in the Sumy region indicates a continued and potentially escalating danger of air/missile attacks, adding urgency to air defense readiness. Although, it was later cleared.
• Kursk Operation: The Ukrainian claim of prolonged operations within Russian territory and significant enemy losses highlights a potentially expanding conflict scope. While confirmation of the scale is needed, it indicates a willingness to take the fight beyond Ukraine's borders.
• Drone Warfare: Continues to be a significant feature of the conflict, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks.
• Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airfield: Confirmed Ukrainian strike, disrupting Russian drone operations and signaling an expansion of the conflict's geographical scope.
• Chasiv Yar: Intense fighting continues. The situation remains unchanged.
• Kupyansk Direction: Russian forces continue to make gains.
• Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) and Konstantinopol Directions: Russian offensive actions continue.
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Fronts: Mutual strikes and drone warfare continue.
• Drone and Air Warfare: Remains a central feature of the conflict, with confirmed strikes by both sides, including the successful targeting of individual soldiers. Ballistic missile threats persist.
• Toretsk Front: Russian forces are making advances, particularly in Shcherbynivka.
• Kursk Front: Fighting continues, and Ukraine claims to have successfully pushed back the enemy's forces.
• Internal Russian Military Issues: Allegations of misconduct and forced transfers of soldiers highlight potential morale and disciplinary problems.
• Dzerzhynsk Direction: Russian forces have entered Shcherbynivka.

The continued focus on drone warfare, combined with the claimed Ukrainian operations within Russia, suggests a dynamic and potentially escalating conflict. The emphasis on the Kursk operation by Ukrainian forces indicates its strategic importance, potentially both as a diversionary tactic and as a means of directly targeting Russian capabilities. The renewed ballistic missile threat highlights the ever-present danger of air attacks.