Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 04:38 UTC

Major Updates (Since February 6, 2025, 04:08 UTC)

1. Russian Claims of Extensive Gains (Kharkiv Region): A Russian official (Ganchev, via TASS) claims that Russian forces have "liberated" over 70 settlements in the Kharkiv region. He further claims "administrative control" over 34 settlements. This represents a significant claim of territorial gains, far exceeding previous reports. This needs very careful verification. If true, it would indicate a major collapse of Ukrainian defenses in the region, which has not been corroborated by other sources. It's highly likely this is significantly exaggerated for propaganda purposes. The video shows the Russian and Luhansk flags.

2. Chasiv Yar Battle Intensifies (Pro-Russian Source): Pro-Russian military bloggers ("Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny") report intense fighting for Chasiv Yar, claiming Russian forces have taken "dominant heights" and a "large part" of the city. They cite Ukrainian sources acknowledging Russian advances. Specific claims include:

   • Russian control of southwestern and western neighborhoods (one fully, one 80%).
   • Ukrainian forces control only 1.5 neighborhoods.
   • Ukrainian forces have retreated from the stadium, allowing Russian advances towards the Shevchenko district or a bypass through "CEH No. 2" (likely an industrial facility).
   • Fighting in the Novoseverny district.
   • Pressure on Ukrainian forces along the Bakhmut-Konstantinovka road.
   • Russian forces are reportedly massing for a push towards Stupochki. Maps are provided showing likely areas under Russian and Ukrainian control. The forward line is shown. This reinforces the assessment of intense fighting around Chasiv Yar, with significant Russian advances reported, particularly the capture of key high ground. While coming from a pro-Russian source, the level of detail, inclusion of Ukrainian acknowledgments, and accompanying maps add some credibility, though exaggeration is still likely.

3. Russian Aircraft Carrier "Admiral Kuznetsov" (Status): Ukrainian media (RBK-Ukraina) reports that Russia's only aircraft carrier, "Admiral Kuznetsov," may never return to service after 7 years of repairs. It notes that Su-33 fighters, previously part of the carrier's air group, are now used to escort Tu-95MS strategic bombers. The only training ground for carrier pilots is in occupied Crimea. This, if confirmed, would be a significant blow to Russian naval capabilities, further limiting their ability to project power. The use of Su-33s for bomber escort suggests a repurposing of assets due to the carrier's unavailability.

4. Ukrainian Shahed Drone Destruction (Claim): Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed 3 Shahed drones overnight. This reinforces the ongoing use of Iranian-made drones by Russia and Ukrainian efforts to counter them.

5. Russian Social Media X May be Unblocked: Ekaterina Mizulina claims that the Russian social media X (formerly Twitter) has significantly changed and may be unblocked.

6. 70% of Russians Support SMO: 70% of Russians support the decision to conduct a special military operation.

Updated Situation

The military situation remains highly dynamic, with a potential major shift in the Kharkiv region if Russian claims are accurate, though this is highly questionable. The battle for Chasiv Yar is clearly intensifying, with significant Russian gains reported.

• Kharkiv Region (Highly Uncertain): The claim of over 70 settlements liberated by Russia is a major development if true, but requires significant verification. It is likely significantly exaggerated. It's contradicted by the claim of 34 settlements.
• Donetsk Region (Chasiv Yar): Intense fighting continues, with pro-Russian sources reporting significant Russian advances and control of key high ground. This appears to be a major Russian offensive effort.
• Naval Capabilities (Degraded): The potential permanent loss of the "Admiral Kuznetsov" would significantly degrade Russian naval power projection capabilities.
• Drone Warfare: Continues, with Ukrainian claims of shooting down Shahed drones.
• Diplomatic Initiative: The upcoming US peace plan remains a key factor.
• Overall Trend: Russia continues to hold the initiative, particularly around Chasiv Yar. The situation in the Kharkiv region is highly uncertain due to the large and likely exaggerated Russian claims.
• Internal Russian Situation: Foreigners staying in Russia must undergo annual medical examinations. The State Duma does not yet see signs for unblocking social network X.

The most significant new information is the large-scale claim of Russian territorial gains in the Kharkiv region, though this requires extreme caution due to its likely exaggeration. The detailed reports of fighting around Chasiv Yar, even from a pro-Russian source, confirm that this is a major focus of Russian operations. The potential loss of Russia's only aircraft carrier is a significant long-term strategic development.