Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 04:08 UTC

Major Updates (Since February 6, 2025, 03:38 UTC)

1. US Proposed Peace Plan (Upcoming): The US administration, through Special Representative for Ukraine Keith Kellogg, will present a plan to end the Ukrainian conflict at the Munich Security Conference (February 14-16). Based on prior statements, the plan is expected to include freezing the conflict and withdrawing Russian troops from a "gray zone" (areas with unclear control). The US will also offer security guarantees to Ukraine. This introduces a significant diplomatic development. The timing (next week) is critical. The plan's details, particularly regarding the "gray zone" and security guarantees, will be crucial to assess its viability and acceptability to both sides.

2. End of Drone Threat (Ukraine): The Ukrainian Air Force has announced the end of the threat of enemy attack drones across all regions. This provides a temporary reprieve from the immediate threat of drone attacks, but does not indicate a broader cessation of hostilities.

3. Russian Air Defense Claims (Overnight): The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have destroyed 28 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions overnight. This reinforces the scale of Ukrainian drone attacks, and if accurate, suggests a relatively high success rate for Russian air defenses, though the impact of intercepted drones is unclear.

4. Airborne Forces Summary (Russian):

   • Kursk Border Area: Novorossiysk Airborne Forces' "Uragan" MLRS units reportedly destroyed Ukrainian strongpoints and personnel in the Kursk border area.
   • Ivanovo Airborne Forces: Destroyed Ukrainian armored vehicles, firing positions, and ammunition depots with 122mm D-30 howitzers.
   • Chasiv Yar: 331st Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division destroyed a Ukrainian "Leleka-100" UAV.
   • Chasiv Yar: Scouts from the 215th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 98th Airborne Division used a "Molniya 2.0" kamikaze FPV drone to destroy a Ukrainian temporary deployment point. These are tactical claims of success by various Russian Airborne Forces units, indicating continued intense fighting in the Chasiv Yar area and heightened activity along the Kursk border. The use of FPV drones for precision strikes continues to be a prominent feature.

Updated Situation

The military situation remains highly dynamic and favors Russia overall, but with a potential shift towards a diplomatic track. Key points:

• Diplomatic Initiative: The upcoming US peace plan presentation at the Munich Security Conference introduces a significant diplomatic element. The plan's success will depend heavily on its specific terms and whether they are acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine.
• Donetsk Region Focus: Russian efforts remain concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk. Claims of Ukrainian defections, while likely propaganda, highlight the pressure on Ukrainian forces.
• Kharkiv Region Pressure: Russian advances around Kupyansk and the Ukrainian reinforcement of Vovchansk suggest a renewed offensive threat in the Kharkiv region. The establishment of a bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskol River is very significant.
• Drone Warfare: While the immediate drone threat has subsided in Ukraine, the ongoing pattern of Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russia, and Russian claims of high interception rates, highlight the continued importance of drone warfare and air defense.
• Information Warfare: Disinformation and conflicting claims remain a significant factor.
• Overall Trend: Russia maintains the initiative on multiple fronts, with slow but consistent advances. Ukraine is primarily focused on defensive operations. The potential for a diplomatic solution, however uncertain, introduces a new dynamic to the conflict.

The announcement of a forthcoming US peace plan is the most significant new development, adding a potential diplomatic track to the ongoing military conflict. The reported end of the immediate drone threat in Ukraine provides a temporary respite, but the continued pattern of drone attacks and Russian air defense claims underscores the ongoing importance of this aspect of the war. The specific claims of Russian airborne successes highlight continued fighting in key areas.