Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 01:38 UTC

Major Updates (Since February 6, 2025, 01:08 UTC)

Drone Warfare & Air Raid Alerts

• Kharkiv City Targeted: A new enemy drone is reported heading towards Kharkiv city from the east. This adds to the already confirmed targeting of civilian infrastructure in the city, indicating a sustained and deliberate attack.
• New Drone Wave from Black Sea: Confirmed new enemy attack drones launched from the Black Sea, heading towards southern Odesa Oblast (specifically Vylkove). This confirms the multi-wave nature of the drone attack and a likely focus on targeting coastal areas and potentially port infrastructure. RBC-Ukraina reports a new movement from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast.
• Renewed Air Activity on Sumy and Donetsk: Confirmed repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation in Sumy and Donetsk regions. This signifies continued pressure from the air across multiple frontlines.
• Updated Drone Movements (Continued Tracking & New Threats):
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Drones in the north, heading west/east.
  • Kharkiv/Donetsk Border: Drones heading southwest.
  • Kyiv Oblast: Drones in the south, heading west.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Drones in the center, direction variable.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones in the north, heading west.
  • Kherson Oblast: Drones in the north, heading east.
  • Odesa Oblast (Vylkove): Drones from the Black Sea are heading towards the area.
  • Vysokopillia: One drone is flying over the town and then to the left bank.
  • Dnipro: Two mopeds heading towards/through Dnipro
  • Kryvyi Rih area: One moped is flying from the Kryvyi Rih area towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
  • North of Kropyvnytsky: Three mopeds, heading west.
  • Kharkiv: One drone is circling near the city.

Donetsk Region

• Konstantinopol Area: Russian artillery from the 29th Army of the "Vostok" group are working on Ukrainian positions, targeting discovered firepower and personnel. Video evidence confirms the artillery strikes.

Kharkiv Region

• Confirms a drone strike on a market.

Geopolitical

• US Actions in Gaza: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the US is considering all possible actions regarding the Gaza Strip. However, he emphasized that the US is far from sending troops to Gaza and will coordinate with Israel to counter Iran. This is relevant due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine as it reflects broader US military and foreign policy considerations and potential resource allocations.

Kursk Region (Not a direct change, but ongoing situation)

• The Police of Khabarovsk has directed a criminal case to the court against a 51-year-old man who shot in the air.

• Khabarovsk Migration Crackdown: A video shows a raid by Russian security forces (including migration officers, FSB, and Rosgvardia) in Khabarovsk, targeting migrant workers. Over 100 foreigners were checked, with several found in violation of migration laws. Penalties include fines and deportation. Some naturalized citizens were taken to military commissariats and issued summonses for military registration. This is indirectly relevant as it could indicate potential mobilization efforts or attempts to bolster manpower by targeting minority groups within Russia. Another Video message depicts OMON forces detaining men, most likely migrant workers.

Updated Situation

The most significant changes are:

• Sustained and Expanding Drone Attack: The drone attack continues to expand, with new drones launched from the Black Sea targeting Odesa Oblast (Vylkove), and continued drone activity across multiple regions. The renewed threat to Kharkiv city, combined with the previous targeting of civilian infrastructure, demonstrates a deliberate and escalating offensive.
• Continued Airstrikes: The repeated launches of guided bombs in Sumy and Donetsk regions add to the pressure on Ukrainian forces.
• Confirmed Artillery Strikes in Konstantinopol: The video showing Russian artillery work near Konstantinopol shows action in that area.
• Geopolitical Implications: The US statement on Gaza, while not directly related to Ukraine, signals potential resource constraints and a focus on multiple global hotspots, which could indirectly impact the level of support for Ukraine.
• Potential Manpower Issues Within Russia: The crackdown on migrant workers in Khabarovsk, although geographically distant, hints at possible broader efforts within Russia to address manpower shortages or consolidate control, which could indirectly affect the war effort.

The overall situation remains extremely critical. The multi-pronged, multi-wave drone attack, combined with continued airstrikes, indicates a significant escalation by Russian forces. The confirmation of deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv is a serious development. The situation is highly fluid, and further escalation is likely.