Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 21:38 UTC
Key Developments and Changes (Since Previous Update)
Military Operations
Kharkiv Region (Confirmed Drone Strike): A drone strike occurred near transport infrastructure in Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district, causing a fire in trade pavilions. Preliminary reports indicate no casualties, but debris from a "Geran" drone damaged the market's pavilions. Further drone attacks are reported from the northwest. Drone activity continues in the region with updates indicating that drones are now moving in various directions: southwestern Sumy (west/southwest), center of Kirovohrad (west), border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia (north), south and north of Kharkiv (north/south), east of Kyiv (south). A drone is approaching Kropyvnytskyi from the east. A drone is approaching Kharkiv from the north. A high-speed target was reported moving southwest. The Russian Ministry of Defense officially reports the liberation of Zakhidne, near Kupiansk and Russian forces have liberated Novomlynsk.
Donetsk Region (Pokrovsk Direction - Intense Fighting): A FAB was reported in the direction of Konstantinovka. A confirmed strike on an industrial facility in Konstantinovka. Russian assault troops reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian position. Drone operators are actively targeting Ukrainian vehicles. A video shows heavy casualties among Russian "Storm Z" units.
Chasiv Yar Area (Confirmed POW Capture): Ramzan Kadyrov, head of Chechnya, published a video of two Ukrainian soldiers captured by the "Akhmat" special forces near Chasiv Yar. He emphasized humane treatment of POWs and urged Ukrainian soldiers to surrender.
Kramatorsk/Artemovsk Region (Confirmed Drone Strike): A confirmed FPV drone strike destroyed a Ukrainian tank.
Krasnohorivka, Donetsk Region (Confirmed Vehicle Loss): A French VAB armored personnel carrier (APC) was destroyed.
Sumy Region: Drones are reported in the northern part of Sumy Oblast, moving towards Chernihiv Oblast. Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs.
Luhansk Region: Russian forces continue to advance south of Zapadnoye.
Drone Warfare
Extensive Drone Activity (Confirmed): The Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy drone movements. Drones were spotted moving southwest in the western part of Sumy Oblast and the eastern part of Chernihiv Oblast. Drones in southeastern Kharkiv Oblast moving west/northwest. Drones in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast moving north. A drone reported in the southeastern part of Zaporizhzhia. New enemy drones are entering the Dnipropetrovsk region from the Zaporizhzhia region. Updates on drone movements continue. Drones are reported in the north and center of Chernihiv region (southwest course), on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad regions (west course), on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions (north course) and in the south and east of Kharkiv region (northeast course). New groups of drones are entering the southeast of Dnipropetrovsk region from Zaporozhzhia region. Kyiv region under threat from drones from the northeast. Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions under threat from reconnaissance drones.
Drone Attacks (Russia - Primorsko-Akhtarsk Confirmed): Video evidence confirms a strike in Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Krasnodar Krai), likely targeting the airfield. Reports continue in southern Russia, including Shakhty (Rostov Oblast) and Slavyansk-on-Kuban (Krasnodar Krai). Smoke was reported in Primorsko-Akhtarsk. The airport in Volgograd, Russia, has introduced temporary restrictions.
Drone attacks (Ukraine): Drone attacks have been confirmed against targets in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces report the destruction of a Russian Buk-M3 air defense system. Russian forces report the destruction of a Ukrainian "Verba" MLRS.
Counter-Drone Measures (Russia): Images show a Russian mobile anti-drone group equipped with a 12.7mm four-barreled machine gun (likely a YakB-12.7 removed from a Mi-24V helicopter) mounted on a vehicle, complete with a thermal imager and screen for targeting.
Kyiv Region: The air force reports a threat of a drone attack on Kyiv.
Genichesk, Kherson Region (Confirmed Explosions): Explosions were reported in the sky above Genichesk.
Geopolitical Developments
Prisoner Exchange (Confirmed): 150 Russian servicemen have been returned in a prisoner exchange, reportedly facilitated by the UAE. The exchange was 150 for 150.
Diplomatic Developments:
The US is reportedly expected to take steps to normalize relations with Russia, with Moscow open to dialogue. Russia is ready to negotiate with the US on Ukraine.
Trump's special representative, Keith Kellogg, is reportedly planning a visit to Ukraine.
The White House Press Secretary states that the US Department of State Efficiency is stopping funding for Politico and other media outlets. The Press Secretary criticized Democrats for spending on foreign aid.
Sanctions: President Zelensky has signed sanctions against individuals and organizations involved in the removal of historical artifacts from occupied territories. Zelensky has also signed sanctions against captains of the Russian "shadow fleet".
Cybersecurity: A hacker has been arrested in Spain. Belarusian security forces reportedly hacked the Telegram bot of the "Belaruski Hayun" channel, which reported on Belarusian and Russian military movements. This potentially compromises data of informants.
Nuclear Weapons: Trump claims that he wants Iran to become a great nation but states that it cannot have nuclear weapons.
US Domestic Policy: President Trump is expected to sign an executive order prohibiting transgender individuals from participating in sports competitions with "normal people."
Georgia: Georgia is tightening rules for protests.
Internal Russian Issues
Former Wagner Group Member Crime (Primorsky Krai): A former Wagner Group member has been arrested for killing one person and injuring two others.
Treason Accusation (North Ossetia): A resident of North Ossetia is accused of treason.
North Ossetian Military Personnel: North Ossetian military personnel claim to have been sent to a storm company.
Digital Ruble: The Russian State Duma views the digital ruble as a convenient tool for long-term savings.
Fake QR Codes in Moscow: 150 fake QR codes for apartment building chats were used to hack "Gosuslugi" accounts in Moscow.
ByteDance: The Chinese corporation ByteDance (owner of TikTok) is reportedly delaying discussions on the sale of the app.
Bitcoin: Experts predict a possible Bitcoin correction to $75-82,000, but also maintain the possibility of reaching $130,000.
Ukrainian Military Actions & Claims
Zelenskyy's Address: President Zelensky announced preparations for a new National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) agenda. He threatened personnel changes if concrete steps are not taken. He also continues to push for sanctions against Russia and a strong diplomatic effort. Zelensky has instructed officials to address high prices of medicines. New: Zelensky stated that military assistance from the United States has not decreased.
Ukraine National Resistance Preparation Centers: Centers are being created to prepare the civil population to resist Russia.
Fundraising for Drones: A significant donation allowed for the purchase of 550 "thick" drones, bringing the total to 142,892 FPV drones.
Zelenskyy's address: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provided its daily operational update.
Ukraine-NATO Council Meeting: Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov announced preparations for a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council.
Updated Situation Summary
Confirmed Russian Advance (Kharkiv Region): The capture of Zakhidne and Novomlynsk marks a significant Russian gain, solidifying their push towards Kupiansk.
Intense Fighting (Donetsk Region): Fierce fighting and heavy casualties in the Pokrovsk direction, exact figures are difficult to verify. Drone warfare remains a prominent tactic. A confirmed strike occurred in Konstantinovka, and a FAB was reported in the area.
Confirmed Drone Strikes and Ongoing Activity: Drone strikes are confirmed in Kharkiv (targeting infrastructure) and in Russia (Primorsko-Akhtarsk). Ongoing drone activity is reported across multiple regions of Ukraine, indicating a continued and widespread threat. Russia is actively developing and deploying counter-drone measures.
Confirmed Prisoner Exchange: A significant prisoner exchange (150 for 150) has taken place, facilitated by the UAE.
Cybersecurity Incident (Belarus): The reported hacking of the "Belaruski Hayun" Telegram bot is a significant cybersecurity development, potentially compromising sensitive information and undermining trust in information sources.
Airport Restriction: The temporary restriction of the airport in Volgograd is a new development.
Further Russian Advances: Russian forces are continuing to expand their control.
New Confirmed Strikes: Russian forces have successfully targeted and destroyed Ukrainian military equipment.
The military situation remains highly dynamic, with significant Russian advances, continued intense fighting, and widespread drone warfare. The confirmed prisoner exchange and the cybersecurity incident in Belarus are notable developments. The ongoing drone attacks and counter-drone measures highlight the evolving technological dimension of the conflict.
