Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 21:08 UTC
Key Developments and Changes (Since 20:38 UTC)
Military Operations
Kharkiv Region (Confirmed Russian Advance): The Russian Ministry of Defense officially reports the liberation of Zakhidne, near Kupiansk. Multiple sources confirm this advance, indicating a significant shift in the front line. Russian forces are expanding their bridgehead beyond the Oskil River, advancing towards Kupiansk. Fighting continues near Dvorichna, where the 25th Brigade is reportedly engaged. Russian forces have liberated Novomlynsk (Kharkiv region). New: A high-speed target has been reported in Kharkiv Oblast, moving in a southwesterly direction.
Donetsk Region (Pokrovsk Direction - Intense Fighting): A video shows the aftermath of a significant battle under a bridge near Novokamarsk, allegedly involving heavy casualties among Russian "Storm Z" units. The video shows numerous bodies and scattered anti-personnel mines, suggesting a devastating engagement. The recording soldier's statements point to poor planning and lack of support, contributing to low morale. Russian forces, specifically drone operators from the "Otazhnykh" unit, are actively targeting Ukrainian vehicles, including a Bradley Fighting Vehicle, in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian assault troops from the Center group reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian position in a basement. Confirmed strike on an industrial facility in Konstantinovka, with images showing significant damage. New: A FAB was reported in the direction of Konstantinovka.
Kramatorsk/Artemovsk Region (New Drone Strike Confirmed): A successful FPV drone strike by Russian forces on a Ukrainian tank near Tikhonovka and the Seversky Donets-Donbass Canal is confirmed. The tank's ammunition detonated. The impact occurred approximately 8 km from the front line.
Krasnohorivka, Donetsk Region (New Vehicle Loss Confirmed): A French VAB armored personnel carrier (APC) was destroyed after becoming stuck in a crater caused by a FAB.
Sumy Region: Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs were reported.
Luhansk Region: Russian forces continue to advance south of Zapadnoye.
Drone Warfare
Drone Activity (Various Regions): Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy drone movements. Drones were spotted in the western part of Sumy Oblast and the eastern part of Chernihiv Oblast. These were moving southwest. Drones in southeastern Kharkiv Oblast were reported, moving west/northwest. Drones in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast were moving north. A drone was reported in the southeastern part of Zaporizhzhia. New enemy drones have been detected entering the Dnipropetrovsk region from the Zaporizhzhia region. Updates on drone movements continue. Drones are reported in the north and center of Chernihiv region (southwest course), on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad regions (west course), on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions (north course) and in the south and east of Kharkiv region (northeast course). New groups of drones are entering the southeast of Dnipropetrovsk region from Zaporozhzhia region. Kyiv region is under threat from drones from the northeast. Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions are under threat from reconnaissance drones. New: Updated information indicates that drones are now moving as follows: southwestern Sumy (west/southwest), center of Kirovohrad (west), border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia (north), south and north of Kharkiv (north/south), east of Kyiv (south). A drone is approaching Kropyvnytskyi from the east. A drone is approaching Kharkiv from the north.
Drone Attacks (Russia): Reports of drone attacks continue in southern Russia, including the cities of Shakhty (Rostov Oblast) and Slavyansk-on-Kuban (Krasnodar Krai). Smoke was reported in Primorsko-Akhtarsk. The airport in Volgograd, Russia, has introduced temporary restrictions. Preliminary reports indicate a hit in the area of the Primorsko-Akhtarsk airfield.
Drone attacks (Ukraine): Drone attacks have been confirmed against targets in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces report the destruction of a Russian Buk-M3 air defense system in the Zaporizhzhia direction using a drone. Russian forces report the destruction of a Ukrainian "Verba" MLRS near Novoliubivka using a "Lancet" drone.
Kyiv Region: The air force reports a threat of a drone attack on Kyiv.
Genichesk, Kherson Region (New Explosions Confirmed): Explosions were reported in the sky above Genichesk. This occurred after the Russian Ministry of Defense reported shooting down five drones over the Sea of Azov.
Geopolitical Developments
Diplomatic Developments:
The US is reportedly expected to take steps to normalize relations with Russia, with Moscow open to dialogue in a "tough bargaining mode" considering the "realities on the ground," according to Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. Russia is ready to negotiate with the US on Ukraine. Ryabkov's comments are further emphasized, with a note on the "tough bargaining" aspect.
Trump's special representative, Keith Kellogg, is reportedly planning a visit to Ukraine on February 20th, according to Ukrainian sources. He is expected to present a US plan to end the war after attending the Munich Security Conference.
The White House Press Secretary states that the US Department of State Efficiency is stopping funding for Politico and other media outlets. The US State Department is completely stopping the budget financing of all media. New: The Press Secretary criticized Democrats for spending on foreign aid, listing examples such as sex changes in Guatemala, tourism in Egypt, a new Sesame Street show in Iraq, and combating disinformation in Kazakhstan. This is framed as a contrast to prioritizing aid for Americans affected by natural disasters.
Sanctions: President Zelensky has signed sanctions against individuals and organizations involved in the removal of historical artifacts from occupied territories. Targeted institutions include the "State Historical and Archaeological Museum-Reserve 'Chersonese Tauric'," the "East Crimean Historical and Cultural Museum-Reserve," and the "Central Museum of Taurida." Individuals sanctioned include Russian historian Mikhail Piotrovsky and Sergey Obryvalin, the First Deputy Minister of Culture of the Russian Federation. Zelensky has also signed sanctions against captains of the Russian "shadow fleet" (56 Russians and one Iranian).
Cybersecurity: A hacker has been arrested in Spain for carrying out dozens of attacks on strategic targets, including the Civil Guard, the Ministry of Defense, the National Mint, and other institutions.
Nuclear Weapons: Trump claims that he wants Iran to become a great nation but states that it cannot have nuclear weapons.
US Domestic Policy (New): President Trump is expected to sign an executive order prohibiting transgender individuals from participating in sports competitions with "normal people."
Georgia (New): Georgia is tightening rules for protests, introducing restrictions and distinguishing between "planned" and "spontaneous" demonstrations. Blocking roads, overpasses, and bridges is now prohibited.
Internal Russian Issues
Former Wagner Group Member Crime (Primorsky Krai): A former Wagner Group member, previously convicted of murder, has been arrested for killing one person and injuring two others in a domestic dispute in Lesozavodsk.
Treason Accusation (North Ossetia): A resident of North Ossetia is accused of treason for transferring medicines to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2022.
North Ossetian Military Personnel: North Ossetian military personnel claim to have been sent to a storm company for complaining about crimes committed by the military commandant's office in Melitopol.
Digital Ruble (New): The Russian State Duma views the digital ruble as a convenient tool for long-term savings, citing its traceability as a deterrent to fraud.
Fake QR Codes in Moscow (New): 150 fake QR codes for apartment building chats were used to hack "Gosuslugi" accounts in Moscow in January.
ByteDance (New): The Chinese corporation ByteDance (owner of TikTok) is reportedly delaying discussions on the sale of the app amid the introduction of new US tariffs.
Bitcoin (New): Experts predict a possible Bitcoin correction to $75-82,000 due to unfavorable market and geopolitical conditions, but also maintain the possibility of reaching $130,000.
Ukrainian Military Actions & Claims
Zelenskyy's Address: President Zelensky announced preparations for a new National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) agenda, focusing on financial stability, support for Ukrainian families, and addressing high prices for essential goods like medicines. He threatened personnel changes if concrete steps are not taken. He also continues to push for sanctions against Russia and a strong diplomatic effort. Zelensky has instructed officials to address high prices of medicines. New: Zelensky stated that military assistance from the United States has not decreased.
Ukraine National Resistance Preparation Centers: Centers are being created to prepare the civil population to resist Russia, particularly in the bordering regions.
Zelenskyy's address: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provided its daily operational update. There were 80 combat clashes, with the Pokrovsk direction remaining the hottest. The enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 48 air strikes, and over 4400 attacks on positions and settlements. Details of clashes in various directions are provided, including Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Huliaipil, and Kursk directions. Ukrainian forces claimed to have repelled numerous attacks and inflicted significant losses on the enemy in the Pokrovsk direction.
Ukraine-NATO Council Meeting (New): Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov announced preparations for a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council, discussing the matter with his British counterpart.
Fundraising for Drones (New): A significant donation allowed for the purchase of 550 "thick" (likely meaning large or heavy) drones, bringing the total to 142,892 FPV drones.
Updated Situation Summary
Confirmed Russian Advance (Kharkiv Region): The capture of Zakhidne marks a significant Russian gain, solidifying their push towards Kupiansk. This is confirmed by multiple sources. Russian forces have liberated Novomlynsk. A high-speed target is reported moving southwest in the region.
Intense Fighting (Donetsk Region): The video evidence and reports from the Pokrovsk direction suggest fierce fighting and heavy casualties, particularly among Russian forces, though exact figures are difficult to verify. Drone warfare remains a prominent tactic. A confirmed strike occurred in Konstantinovka, and a FAB was reported in the area.
Continued Drone Activity (Confirmed): Drone movements across Ukraine continue to be reported, with specific updates on their locations and directions. Reports of drone attacks in southern Russia are coming in, indicating increased activity in the region. New drone attacks were reported in Russia. Ukrainian forces continue to successfully target Russian equipment with drones, including an air defense system. New explosions were reported in Genichesk, Kherson region.
Geopolitical Developments and Diplomatic Maneuvering: The reported visit of Trump's representative and potential steps towards US-Russia dialogue add complexity. Zelensky's sanctions and focus on economic stability highlight Ukraine's internal efforts. The US Press Secretary's comments on foreign aid spending reveal potential shifts in US policy.
Prisoner of War Exchange (Confirmed): 150 Russian servicemen have been returned in an exchange.
Airport Restrictions: The temporary restriction of the airport in Volgograd is a new development that requires monitoring for its implication.
Further Russian Advances: Russian forces are continuing to expand their control over the Oskil River, advancing towards Kupyansk.
New Confirmed Strikes (Kramatorsk/Artemovsk and Krasnohorivka): Russian forces have successfully targeted and destroyed Ukrainian military equipment in these areas, demonstrating continued operational effectiveness.
The military situation is marked by a confirmed significant Russian advance in the Kharkiv region and intense, costly fighting in the Donetsk region. Drone warfare remains a significant element, both within Ukraine and targeting Russia. New drone attacks were reported in Russia. Diplomatic activity and internal Ukrainian measures add layers of complexity to the evolving conflict. The release of prisoners is a humanitarian action that has been confirmed. New reports emphasize continued drone activity, a confirmed strike on an industrial facility, further drone strikes and confirmed military equipment losses, as well as further diplomatic developments and internal policy shifts in both Russia and the US.
