Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 17:08 UTC

Key Developments and Changes (Since 16:38 UTC)

The primary updates provide more details regarding the military and political situation, as well as providing evidence to earlier statements.

Prisoner Exchanges & Related Developments

• Confirmation of Returning Soldiers: Kotsnews reports on the positive reception of returning Russian soldiers. The soldiers recount disbelief until seeing the Russian flag, highlighting the emotional impact of prisoner exchanges. The report states that the exchange involved 150 individuals on each side.

Kharkiv Region

• Kupyansk Direction (Confirmed Russian Advances, Details): Russian sources detailed their advances along the Oskil River:
  • South of Zakhidne: An additional 1km advance, increasing the threat to Ukrainian forces near Kindrashivka.
  • Topoli Bridgehead: Confirmed establishment of a bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil, a key staging point for further offensives.
  • Near Dvorichna: Localized breakthroughs and encirclement of small Ukrainian units.
  • Zahryzove and Kolesnykivka: Fighting ongoing, with Russian artillery targeting Ukrainian positions across the river.
  • West of Lozova and South/West of Zelenyi Hai: Further Russian advances reported.

Donetsk Region

• Kramatorsk: Russian sources provide a more detailed account of the alleged strike, claiming:

  • Destruction of a NATO armored vehicle parking lot.
  • An ammunition depot containing Excalibur shells.

• Bilohorivka (Siversk Direction): A report details the intense and allegedly "irrational" attacks by Russian forces in the area.

Kursk Region

• Residents' Return: Khingstein is claiming that the vast majority of residents want to return home when the territory is liberated.
• Mortgage: A subsidized mortgage is needed for residents.
• Housing: The amount of housing under construction is lower than the needs of residents.
• 1000 Year Aniversary of Kursk: Khinshtein asked to revisit the concept of the 1000th anniversary of Kursk.
• Russian Units: A number of units are fighting "coolly, competently and audaciously".
• 155th brigade of marines: They want to be granted a honorary designation after Kursk.
• Celebration of Units: Putin has declared that units fighting heroically will be honored appropriately.

Geopolitical Developments

• Russia-Belarus Security Agreement (Escalation): The State Duma prioritizing ratification of the security agreement with Belarus emphasizes the increased risk of broader conflict, especially given the mention of "constant provocations" from EU countries. Further, Putin has suggested a willingness to utilize nuclear weapons in response to attacks on Belarus or Russia even by conventional means. This represents a significant escalation in rhetoric and lowers the threshold for nuclear use.
• US Aid to Ukraine (Uncertainty): Zelensky's statement confirms ongoing communication and current aid, but no new aid packages are being discussed, increasing uncertainty about future support. Zelensky also says that he will not risk the war against Russia without American support.
• USAID closure: Discussions arise about the strategic implications of USAID's closure.
• Trump's Peace Plan: The Trump administration plans to unveil a plan to end the war in Ukraine during the Munich Security Conference. The plan includes a potential freeze of the conflict and leaving the territory occupied by Russian troops in limbo, but would not recognize the occupation. At the same time, Ukraine would be provided with security guarantees to prevent Russia from attacking again. Trump had also suggested that he would impose large-scale sanctions if Russia refused to negotiate. NATO membership for Ukraine in the near future remains unlikely.
• Diplomacy: Zelensky stated the Kursk operation would be an important part of diplomatic negotiations.

Other

• Russian Morale and Logistics: A report surfaces of Russian soldiers in the 15th Brigade complaining about lack of food, water, warm clothing, and medical care. They claim boots are taken from the dead. A threatening note attached to a radio battery, threatening a drone strike if they don't make contact by a specific time, points to severe command and control issues, low morale, and potentially friendly fire incidents.
• Drone Warfare Intensification: Reports indicate continued and widespread drone activity:
  • Zaporizhzhia Region: Multiple drones reported heading towards Vasylivka and Melitopol, with increased air defense readiness. Additional reports of drones heading towards Vasylivka-Melitopol, and another two described as "not like Geran" drones.
  • Rostov, Krasnodar, and Priazovye: Drone threat declared.
  • Energodar, Dneproprudnoye: Four more drones reported.
• Attacks on Military Recruitment Centers: The head of the Ukrainian National Police claims that there have been 9 attacks inside or around military recruitment centers in 2025, attributing them to Russian special services aiming to destabilize the situation.

Updated Situation Summary

• Prisoner Exchange: The successful exchange of 150 POWs per side is confirmed and emphasized.
• Kharkiv/Kupyansk Front: Russian advances continue, with the bridgehead across the Oskil River solidifying, representing a serious threat.
• Kursk Region: Putin and Khinshtein discussed the region.
• Drone Warfare: Remains a major factor, with widespread alerts and confirmed activity across multiple regions.
• Geopolitical Maneuvering: The Russia-Belarus security agreement and Putin's rhetoric point towards a major potential escalation. Uncertainty over US aid continues. The upcoming reveal of Trump's peace plan adds another layer of complexity.
• Russian Military Issues: Reports of poor morale, supply shortages, and threatening behavior by commanders within a Russian unit suggest internal problems within the Russian military.
• Ukrainian Recruitment Center Attacks: Ukrainian authorities are attributing a series of attacks on recruitment centers to Russian sabotage, highlighting internal security concerns.
• Artillery Losses: The Ukrainian General Staff claims significant Russian artillery losses in 2024 (13,000 systems), exceeding the combined losses of the previous two years. This, if accurate, represents a major shift in the balance of power in terms of artillery.
• Ukrainian Combat Training: A video from the Presidential Brigade highlights ongoing training efforts, focusing on basic skills, urban combat, and leadership development. This underscores the continued need to build and maintain combat readiness.